PROSPECTS FOR FANMI LAVALAS IN THE 2010 ELECTIONS

C O N F I D E N T I A L PORT AU PRINCE 000936 SIPDIS DEPT FOR S, C, WHA/EX, WHA/CAR, S/CRS, DS/IP/WHA, INR/IAA AND INL FOR KEVIN BROWN, HEATHER WILD AND MEAGAN MCBRIDE WHA/EX PLEASE PASS TO USOAS, USAID/LAC SOUTHCOM ALSO FOR POLAD E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/16/2019 TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM ASEC KINR HA SUBJECT: PROSPECTS FOR FANMI LAVALAS IN THE 2010 ELECTIONS REF: 04 PORT AU PRINCE 538 Classified By: Ambassador Kenneth Merten for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: The two main factions of Fanmi Lavalas, the political party of ousted former president Jean-Bertrand Aristide, are collaborating to mitigate the risk of their exclusion from legislative and presidential elections in ¶2010. Although a united Lavalas would be the largest party in Haiti, their differences are many and both factions are short of money. In addition, President Preval continues to entice many influential FL members into his political movement, further weakening FL as an opposition party. Despite its popular appeal, FL is unlikely to be a viable contending force, unless its leaders manage to present a united front. This cable also provides biographical data on key members of Fanmi Lavalas who will play a role in any unification effort. END SUMMARY. One Party, Two ''Families'' -------------- ¶2. (C) Fanmi Lavalas (FL) has been divided for some time into a faction loyal to Aristide that remains in contact with him, and a second faction of former and current Lavalas officials who hope to amend the party's charter and ease an increasingly irrelevant Aristide out of the leadership role. The Aristide loyalists, headed by Maryse Narcisse, enjoy the support of most grassroots activists, but Yvon Neptune (a former Prime Minister),Yves Cristalin, and other moderates are bolstered by international attention and a complicated relationship with President Rene Preval, himself a former Aristide ally. Several Lavalas activists and elected officials have tried, with varying degrees of success, to remain above the fray. ¶3. (C) The Provisional Electoral Council (CEP) used this division to exclude FL from the Senatorial elections in 2009. The two factions presented two contradictory lists of candidates, making it easy for the CEP to eliminate all FL candidates with the tacit approval (if not at the request) of President Preval. The division, combined with a lack of financial resources, also slowly weakened FL's popular appeal and its ability to rally people in the streets. ¶4. (C) Preval has managed to entice several Fanmi Lavalas figures into his ''fold.'' Leslie Voltaire and Yves Cristalin are both advisors to Preval (the latter has been named Minister of Social Affairs in the government of Jean-Max Bellerive). Lavalas Senators Francky Exius and Yvon Buissereth aligned themselves with Preval's LESPWA majority in the Senate to remove Prime Minister Michele Pierre Louis. Talking Again? -------------- ¶5. (C) With upcoming legislative and presidential elections in 2010, the two main factions seem determined to avoid being excluded once again. They are engaged in talks with the purpose of presenting ONE common list of candidates. There is even talk of a FL National Congress in December, to formalize and unify the FL structure. However, Preval is unlikely to want a strong opposition FL presence in the elections and is creating a broad political movement (septel),into which he is enticing influential opposition and regional leaders, including FL members. FL members on both sides complain that they are in dire need of financial support, as Aristide does not seem to be funneling money to the party. As a result, the promise of access to resources and power is likely to convert many FL members to Preval's movement, thus further eroding FL's position as an opposition party. Preval,s ability to reach out to Cristalin, Voltaire, Exius and Buissereth (as well as key leaders in opposition parties like OPL and FUSION) testifies to his influence. Nevertheless, FL's popular base, even if mitigated, makes it the only viable counter-force to Preval, should its leaders manage to reunite into a common front. ¶6. (U) The remainder of this cable provides biographical information on certain key members of Fanmi Lavalas. Aristide Loyalists -------------- ¶7. (C) The Executive Committee purports to manage the affairs of Fanmi Lavalas in Aristide's absence. The committee's members call for the immediate return of Aristide, who remains the party's ''National Representative,'' but say he wants security guarantees before leaving South Africa. They are closely allied with a number of militants and ''popular organization'' leaders, including Rene Civil. The Executive Committee was not constituted in accordance with the party's charter, which foresees a complicated series of regional elections in local FL committees that culminate in the election of delegates to the Executive Committee, but the committee is nonetheless widely believed to operate on Aristide's behalf. The committee often uses the facilities of the Aristide Foundation to organize meetings and protests. ¶8. (C) Maryse Narcisse, ''Coordinator'' of the FL Executive Committee and self-described spokeswoman of Jean-Bertrand Aristide, was formerly his private secretary. She claims to have made four trips to see Aristide since 2004, according to a late-2008 MINUSTAH report. Narcisse was kidnapped for ransom and released in late 2007, an act she implies was somehow directed by the National Palace. A doctor by training, she was once the Director General of the Ministry of HEALTH and also was assigned to Haiti's Mission to the United Nations, according to Lavalas's website. Narcisse lived in New York for an unknown period of time and may be a U.S. legal permanent resident. She speaks English but prefers French. ¶9. (C) Rene Civil, formally the head of the ''Mobilization Committee'' of Narcisse's branch of the party, is perhaps the party's best-known activist. Leader of the "Youth Popular Power" (JPP) organization, he is invariably behind the marches commemorating Aristide's birthday, his first election, the ''coup d'etat'' of 2004, and the anniversary of the party's founding. ¶10. (C) Jacques Methalier, Executive Committee member and former departmental official during Aristide's second term as president, has been accused of involvement in political violence in the past. He was Lavalas's Senate candidate in the South department for the April 2009 elections, but Lavalas candidates were excluded from those elections by the Provisional Electoral Council. ¶11. (C) Renan Armstrong Charlot, a doctor by training, is the newest addition to the Executive Committee. Young and energetic, he is responsible for the steady stream of press releases that issue from the Executive Committee. ¶12. (C) Lionel Etienne, Executive Committee member, is a former member of the Chamber of Deputies. ¶13. (C) The Aristide Foundation for Democracy was reportedly founded in 1995 at the conclusion of President Aristide's first term in office, but its activities were dramatically curtailed when Aristide departed the country. Two reports by the Interim Government's Central Financial Intelligence Unit (UCREF) in 2005 found serious irregularities in the Foundation's books that it concluded were signs of significant corruption. The Foundation is regularly used to house political activities and launch demonstrations organized by the Executive Committee. Toussaint Hilaire is the foundation's director. In January 2009, Hilaire announced that the Aristide Foundation's university, also located in Tabarre, would offer Spanish language courses to prepare students to take courses full-time at the university with Cuban instructors. The Haitian State University (UEH) rector still disputes the Foundation's claim to the university on the grounds that it was built with public funds. ''Moderates'' -------------- ¶14. (C) Although the moderates refrain from publicly criticizing Aristide, their distaste for the former president -- and desire to replace him -- might be the worst-kept secret in Haiti. With international interlocutors, they denounce Narcisse's followers as a bunch of ''bandits and thugs.'' Their efforts to amend the party's charter and name a new National Representative have been hampered by a lack of strategic planning and grassroots backing. They established a ''Facilitation Group'' and then an interim committee (''l'Equipe Responsable'') to attempt to consolidate support. Cristalin, Coffy, and Francisque are the main organizers in this faction. ¶15. (C) Yvon Neptune, former prime minister under Aristide, is leader of the moderate faction but tries to maintain a certain distance from its activities for tactical reasons. He is widely distrusted (or worse) by Aristide loyalists for his alleged complicity in Aristide's departure. He was detained for some time by the Interim Government in 2004. Neptune was widely believed to be considering running as a 2011 presidential candidate. He seems to lack popular support and has indicated to embassy contacts that he is not interested in running. ¶16. (C) Yves Cristalin, a leader of the Equipe Responsable and former president of the Chamber of Deputies, was named a counselor to President Preval in June 2009. He is an economist by training and was Preval's point man on the controversial minimum wage dispute. Cristalin is a founding member of FL, but is driven by personal ambitions. He is reported to be cozying up to Preval's political movement, and is Jean-Max Bellerive's pick for Minister of Social Affairs in the new government. ¶17. (C) Deputy Jonas Coffy, a former advisor to Yvon Neptune when the latter was prime minister, is a senior official at the private National Diplomatic and Consular Academy since ¶2004. Coffy was born in Petit Goave on August 19, 1969. ¶18. (C) Stephen Francisque, a former secretary for state for literacy before Aristide's departure, has also joined the moderates, although he is more active behind the scenes than publicly. ¶19. (C) Annette Auguste, usually called ''So Ann'' (Sister Anne),is an Executive Committee member and a well known militant with a wide following. She publicly broke with the rest of Executive Committee in October 2008, but occasionally appears at rallies organized by the Committee to celebrate important Lavalas anniversaries. She lived in New York for an extended period (starting in 1968),and returned with Aristide in 1994. She and her husband occasionally appear at events sponsored by Lavalas moderates. ¶20. (C) Jocelerme Privert, former Interior Minister until Aristide's departure in 2004, is suspected of involvement in political violence and suppressing anti-Aristide protests during that period (reftel). He attempted to run for Senate as an independent with the support of moderates, but his candidacy was rejected by the electoral authorities on technical grounds (his certification attesting to his responsible management of public funds - required for former officials who seek elected office -- was declared invalid). ¶21. (C) Angelot Bell, former Director General of the Ministry of Interior during Aristide's second term, was credibly accused of arming chimeres and sponsoring other political violence before Aristide's departure (reftel). He attempted to run for Senate in April 2009 with the moderates' support, although he has not otherwise taken a visible role in the moderates ongoing dispute with Aristide loyalists. Assorted Elected Officials -------------- ¶22. (C) Senator Rudy Heriveaux, who registered Lavalas for the elections in 2006, sometimes claims to represent the party on that basis, despite his lack of formal authority or grassroots support. He is a constant foil to Preval, who made him various promises in exchange for Heriveaux's support of Prime Minister Michele Pierre-Louis's confirmation in 2008 but never delivered. He aligned himself with Narcisse when the latter registered Fanmi Lavalas for the 2009 elections, but later publicly doubted the authenticity of Narcisse's supposed mandate from Aristide to lead the party. He played an active role in countering LESPWA's move to remove Pierre-Louis in the Senate, engaging in the attempted Haitian version of a filibuster by dragging on the interpellation session for more than 10 hours. ¶23. (C) Deputy Sorel Francois, ally of Heriveaux, is more sympathetic to Narcisse than Cristalin and quite knowledgeable regarding Lavalas affiliated ''popular organizations'' and planned protests. He attended community college and worked in Philadelphia, and frequently travels to the United States. He was born in 1969 and speaks excellent English. ¶24. (SBU) Senator Yvon Buissereth frequently aligns himself with LESPWA in the Senate but occasionally joins the moderates in their disputes with Aristide loyalists. He was elected as Questeur (equivalent to treasurer) in the Senate in September 2009, and was ONE of the Senators to have instigated the interpellation and removal of Pierre Louis. Lavalas Activists in Other Political Parties -------------- ¶25. (C) Franky Exius, a former Lavalas deputy and unsuccessful Senate candidate, again ran for Senate in April 2009 under the banner of Lespwa. He sought the FL nomination for Senate, but his candidacy was rejected by Narcisse, he says. He won the seat with a very small margin, beating the UCCADHE candidate Laguerre. Then CEP Vice-President Rodol Pierre, believed to be at the head of UCCADHE, denounced fraud in the South. Exius' win is ONE of the two contested departmental elections in the 2009 Senatorial race. Despite his choice to distance himself from the Fanmi Lavalas organization, he seems to genuinely want Aristide to return. He is divorced and formerly worked in the Ministry of Planning. ¶26. (C) Moise Jean-Charles, a Lavalas militant, is reportedly counselor to President Preval. He won the Senate seat in the North in the 2009 Senatorial race. He was allegedly at the head of a group of Lavalas partisans that opened fire on anti-Aristide protests in Cap Haitien in 2003, and he is rumored to have participated in other political violence as well, including involvement in the murder of the cousin of a Deputy in the North. ¶27. (C) John Joel Joseph is a Lavalas-affiliated, Cite-Soleil based activist who ran for Senate and won in 2009 under the Lespwa banner. Reportedly close to President Preval, Joseph faced persistent accusations that his campaign unfairly benefitted from state resources and funding. His detractors paint him as a semiliterate thug with no real public policy interests or background, and he is credibly believed to have links to kidnappings. ¶28. (C) Eric Jean-Jacques, former president of the Chamber of Deputies (2006-2009). He was elected in 2006 under the Lespwa banner but relations with Preval had deteriorated by late 2008. Jean-Jacques unsuccessfully sought the Lavalas nomination in the West Department for the 2009 Senate elections, according to a MINUSTAH report. He is developing a new political party (named REMAMBRE),drawing from the ranks of Lavalas sympathizers including Leslie Voltaire (current advisor to President Preval). Jean-Jacques owns a large distillery and speaks excellent English. He sought medical care in Cuba in late 2007, reportedly for prostate cancer. ¶29. (C) Jean Henry Ceant is Aristide's notary and personal friend. He is rumored to be a Presidential candidate, and leads a new political movement (AIMER HAITI) that also draws on the ranks of Lavalas symphathizers and former officials under Aristide (many now in the diaspora). Ceant was an early supporter of Aristide, and is thought to have helped Aristide in meeting property ownership requirements so he could run for President. Ceant's brother, Harry Ceant, was at the head of CONATEL (Haiti's equivalent of the Federal Communications Commission) under Aristide. Ceant's wealth (by Haitian standards),combined with his ties to Aristide, raises suspicions about his past dealings. MERTEN