VALIDATION OF SENATORS: POLITICAL CRISIS OR SAME

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 PORT AU PRINCE 000728

SIPDIS

STATE FOR WHA/EX AND WHA/CAR, S/CRS, INL FOR KEVIN BROWN,
HEATHER WILD, AND MEAGAN MCBRIDE
SOUTHCOM ALSO FOR POLAD, STATE PASS AID FOR LAC/CAR,
INR/IAA, DS/IP/WHA, WHA/EX PLEASE PASS USOAS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM ASEC HA
SUBJECT: VALIDATION OF SENATORS: POLITICAL CRISIS OR SAME
OLD SHENANIGANS?

REF: A. PORT AU PRINCE 00667

B. PORT AU PRINCE 00706


1. (U) SUMMARY: The Haitian Constitution of 1987 requires the
seated Senate to validate the 11 newly elected Senators
before they take office. Given alleged issues of credibility
regarding the provisional electoral council (CEP) and the
senatorial elections (reftel),it is unlikely that the Senate
will have a quorum for the validation session unless an
agreement is reached between the dissenting parties and
President Preval. END SUMMARY


2. (U) According to Article 108 of the Constitution, newly
elected Senators must be validated by the seated Senate
before they can take office. This provision requires a
simple majority in order for the validation to take place.
This requires 16 Senators out of the full 30 seats. Given
there are currently only 18 Senators, a minority of 3
dissenting Senators may prevent a session from ever taking
place.


3. (U) As it stands, Senators Anacasis and Heriveaux have
stated they will not participate in the validation session.
They claim the election process to have been illegitimate,
given the CEP,s alleged pro-Preval bias and the exclusion of
Fanmi Lavalas from elections. In addition, the allegations
of fraud in the South and Artibonite Departments made by the
CEP,s Vice-President Rodol Pierre (reftel) has only fueled
the plethora of grievances from losing candidates and
political parties.


4. (U) Several other Senators are expected to be absent at
the validation session, itself not yet scheduled. Several
political parties, including Fusion and OPL, have already
stated they will not participate at the validation session
and have condemned President Preval,s decision to publish
the list of elected Senators before all objections are
resolved. At least 6 Senators have thus far claimed that
they will not engage in the validation process.


5. (SBU) It remains nonetheless difficult to assess who will
actually participate or not. In their conversations with
PolOff, several insiders, including Senators Clerie and
Anacasis, remain optimistic that differences can be resolved.
The President of the Senate Kelly Bastien and President
Preval are both keen to have the new Senators validated.
Bastien recently announced that since the list of elected
Senators has been officially presented by the President,
there are no legal obstacles to the Senators being registered
(all have subsequently registered). However, a meeting he
had called for on August 4 to discuss the validation issue
only brought 5 Senators to the table, according to Senate
Vice-President Andris Riche (himself OPL affiliated, and
strongly against the validation). On the same day, Preval's
office issued a press release stating that the CEP's decision
is final and that there would be no investigation into the
allegations of fraud. The CEP has also stated in a letter to
the Organization of American States that it will not
reconsider its position.


6. (U) One scenario suggested by government insiders would
have the concerned parties agreeing to validate 9 of the 11
Senators while the 2 contested seats in the South and
Artibonite await resolution. Micha Gaillard, spokesperson of
the Fusion party, indicated that this would require President
Preval,s leadership. While most parties understand that
there were irregularities with the elections, he believes
that the validation could go through if an agreement were
reached to exclude the 2 contested seats. Alternatively,
rumors have it that there may be an attempt orchestrated by
Preval to obtain the quorum by including the 11 newly elected
Senators in the count. This remains unlikely.


7. (SBU) COMMENT: The validation is unlikely to occur until
President Preval agrees to respond to the allegations of
fraud in the South and Artibonite, either directly or through
political bartering. The absence of a functioning Senate
would further jeopardize the fragile political stability and
halt the process of constitutional reform. This is

PORT AU PR 00000728 002 OF 002


especially relevant given uncertainty over the feasibility
and legitimacy of major parliamentary elections at the end of
this year (for one third of Senate and entire Chamber of
Deputies). The possibility of unrest remains real, in the
event Preval fails to come to an agreement with the concerned
parties and given recent protests linked to the the minimum
wage law (reftel). Preval is however known to be an able
negotiator, and a protracted political deadlock is by no
means a certainty. END COMMENT
TIGHE