LAVALAS MARCH FOR ARISTIDE'S BIRTHDAY DRAWS MODEST

C O N F I D E N T I A L PORT AU PRINCE 000659

SIPDIS

STATE FOR WHA/EX AND WHA/CAR, S/CRS, INL FOR KEVIN BROWN,
HEATHER WILD, AND MEAGAN MCBRIDE
SOUTHCOM ALSO FOR POLAD, STATE PASS AID FOR LAC/CAR,
INR/IAA, DS/IP/WHA, WHA/EX PLEASE PASS USOAS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/20/2019
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM ASEC HA SA
SUBJECT: LAVALAS MARCH FOR ARISTIDE'S BIRTHDAY DRAWS MODEST
CROWD

REF: REF: 08 PORT AU PRINCE 1016

Classified By: Charge d'Affaires a.i. Thomas C. Tighe,
for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (SBU) SUMMARY: A July 15 Fanmi Lavalas Demonstration to
mark Jean Bertrand Aristide's birthday was peaceful and
attended by at most a few thousand supporters. Fanmi Lavalas
ability to bring people into the streets is declining. END
SUMMARY.


2. (SBU) Fanmi Lavalas (FL) supporters marched peacefully
July 15 from morning until mid-afternoon to mark the 56th
birthday of former President Jean Bertrand Aristide. Press
estimates of the number of participants range from 500 to
''thousands,'' with the crowd largest at the concluding rally
on Constitution Square downtown. MINUSTAH estimated the crowd
at 2,500. The area surrounding the National Palace was under
strict security measures by the Haitian National Police (HNP)
and MINUSTAH. The HNP escorted the demonstrators along much
of the way.


3. (SBU) The march remained peaceful throughout the day, and
has been the case with FL demonstrations the last several
years. PolOffs observed the demonstrators in front of the
Parliament, where the crowd numbered several hundred, with
more of a festival atmosphere than that of a structured
rally. Demonstrators brandished placards calling for
Aristide's return to Haiti, branding President Preval a
traitor (Note: for having deserted the Fanmi Lavalas party
and having banned its candidates from Senate elections. End
note.),and supporting the minimum wage law. Photos of
Aristide showed him wearing a red mortarboard; he has been
studying ''neuro-linguistics'' and writing a Ph.D.
dissertation at a South African university.


4. (SBU) Press reports say that Annette Auguste (aka So Ann)
addressed the rally by calling for unity within FL, along
with Rene Civil, one of the party's best known activists.
(Note: So Ann is a FL Executive Committee member; while she
publicly broke away from the rest of the Committee in 2008,
she still appears at important Lavalas anniversaries. End
note.) No other major leader made a public appearance, and
the event received very little press coverage. The
anti-Aristide faction of Fanmi Lavalas, led by former Prime
Minister Yvon Neptune, did not participate in the rally.


5. (C) COMMENT: The turnout was no larger than last year's
demonstration on the same occasion (reftel). This and
smaller FL demonstrations protesting the exclusion of FL
candidates from Senate elections demonstrate a declining
Fanmi Lavalas ability to bring masses into the streets. This
low turnout is also a product of the split within the FL
party between pro- and anti-Aristide factions. Yves
Cristalin, a Counselor to President Preval and a former
Deputy, and Deputy Jonas Coffy, both affiliated with the
reformist and anti-Aristide Lavalas, told PolOffs on July 13
that their side had refused to participate in the
demonstration. At a workshop organized July 11 at an
exclusive hotel in Port-au-Prince, partisans of this faction,
loosely under the leadership of former Prime Minister Yvon
Neptune, reasserted their intention to either rewrite the
Charter of the FL party or formally break away from the
party. This split is likely to deepen with the upcoming
Presidential and Parliamentary elections, especially given
the disqualification of all FL candidates in the Senatorial
elections of April 2009.
TIGHE