HAITIAN ELECTORAL AUTHORITY REAFFIRMS EXCLUSION OF

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 PORT AU PRINCE 000177 SIPDIS DEPT FOR WHA/EX, WHA/CAR, S/CRS, DS/IP/WHA, AND INR/IAA WHA/EX PLEASE PASS TO USOAS SOUTHCOM ALSO FOR POLAD E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/17/2019 TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM ASEC HA SUBJECT: HAITIAN ELECTORAL AUTHORITY REAFFIRMS EXCLUSION OF LAVALAS REF: A. PORTAUPRINCE 122 ¶B. PORTAUPRINCE 166 Classified By: Amb. Janet A. Sanderson for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) ¶1. (SBU) Summary: The Provisional Electoral Council (CEP) released February 16 the definitive list of candidates for the April senatorial elections, reaffirming the exclusion of former President Jean-Bertrand Aristide's Fanmi Lavalas (FL) party. The CEP list included thirteen previously excluded candidates whose grievances CEP apparently found to have merit. The CEP's announcement came after FL moderates sought a hasty rapprochement with Aristide loyalists but were rebuffed. A hardline FL leader then disassociated her wing of the party from the elections and presented a statement in the name of party leader Aristide calling the exclusion of FL candidates ''the continuation of the coup d'etat'' that allegedly removed Aristide from power in 2004, calling for continuation of FL's ''peaceful'' struggle for democracy, and holding out hope the USG would change its policy toward the Preval administration. There have been two small election-related protests since the exclusion of Lavalas was first announced February 5. End summary. ELECTORAL AUTHORITY REJECTS LAVALAS, AGAIN -------------- ¶2. (SBU) The Provisional Electoral Council (CEP) announced February 16 the reinstatement of 13 candidates initially excluded (ref A) from the April partial Senate elections, after the CEP apparently found their grievances justified. The list, published hours after the 4:00 PM February 16 deadline for appeals had passed, included none of the 16 Fanmi Lavalas candidates. The CEP communique noted specifically that certain candidates had failed to comply with the electoral law and a 1986 decree on political parties. This was a reference to the CEP's position that no FL candidate had the express authorization of the party's leader, former President Jean-Bertrand Aristide (ref B). Suspected drug trafficker Guy Philippe and Lavalas-supported independent Jocelerme Privert were also excluded from the final list of candidates, as were nine others from various parties, ostensibly for failure to comply with various provisions of the electoral law. LAST-MINUTE RECONCILIATION ATTEMPT FAILS -------------- ¶3. (C) FL moderates -- led by Yves Cristalin, former Prime Minister Yvon Neptune, and including most FL members of parliament -- made a last-ditch effort to reach agreement on a list of candidates with the hardliners, but hardliner leader Maryse Narcisse refused to even meet with them. The moderates then submitted their own list of candidates to the CEP that was identical, but for one name, to the hardliners' list, but claiming for the moderates the right to represent FL in dealings with the CEP. By agreeing to nearly all the names on the hardliners list (and sacrificing three of their four candidates) the moderates were able to bring Senator Rudy Heriveaux and Deputy Sorel Francois over to their camp. But lacking the Aristide endorsement that the CEP had demanded, the new list was also rejected out of hand. ARISTIDE LOYALIST CALLS FOR PROTESTS -------------- ¶4. (C) FL Executive Committee leader Narcisse, purporting to speak in the name of Aristide, released a statement February 16 condemning the current Preval/Pierre-Louis government as the ''partisans of the coup d'etat of 29 February 2004.'' (Note: This has long been the official Lavalas characterization of Aristide's departure from Haiti on that date. End note) The statement called the exclusion of Lavalas a ''continuation of the coup d'etat,'' encouraged Lavalas supporters to ''peacefully continue the struggle for democracy and the respect for their rights,'' and pledged that FL would not encourage any violence. The statement also referred to a bill recently submitted in the U.S. House of Representatives to establish an inquiry regarding the role of the United States in Aristide's 2004 departure from Haiti. PORT AU PR 00000177 002 OF 002 Narcisse's statement expressed the hope this was a sign that the new U.S. administration would not tolerate the ''coup d'etat'' process, ''as was the case with the previous U.S. administration.'' ¶5. (C) There have been two small election-related protests since the announcement of Lavalas's exclusion February 5: on February 7, a few hundred activists rallied outside the Aristide Foundation in Tabarre, and on February 13, crowds of similar size gathered around the Aristide Foundation and near the CEP headquarters. Lavalas Deputy Sorel Francois (protect),who maintains close ties to both Lavalas factions, said that a meeting was planned February 18 at the Aristide Foundation but that he was unaware of any specific plans for Lavalas demonstrations in the near future. COMMENT -------------- ¶6. (C) Maryse Narcisse's characterization of the CEP's exclusion of Lavalas as a ''coup d'etat'' is an escalation in Lavalas rhetoric against the government and the election authority. The communique, widely reported here as the words of Aristide himself, appears to dissociate FL entirely from the election process and from the government in general. Embassy will watch closely whether this direct call for protests has any effect as we approach the potentially volatile carnival week. FL is seeking to capitalize on rumors here that the new U.S. administration will support Lavalas and Aristide's return to Haiti. SANDERSON