PRESIDENT PREVAL'S TRIP TO WASHINGTON

C O N F I D E N T I A L PORT AU PRINCE 000109 DEPARTMENT FOR WHA, WHA/CAR, ALSO FOR S/S-0 DEPARTMENT PASS AID FOR LAC E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/01/2019 TAGS: PGOV EAID HA OVIP RENE PREVAL SUBJECT: PRESIDENT PREVAL'S TRIP TO WASHINGTON Classified By: Ambassador Janet A. Sanderson, reason 1.5(b) and (d). ¶1. (C) Rene Preval's hasty decision to attend the National Prayer Breakfast in Washington February 5 is an effort to keep Haiti high on the new Administration's international agenda as it takes office. Although no encounters with USG principals have been confirmed, he hopes that his presence in Washington this early in the Adminstration will lead to a broader, deeper engagement with Haiti (and his presidency) than he believes we have demonstrated heretofore. Despite some important progress in the first 18 months of Preval's tenure, Haiti still faces enormous challenges which threaten its future and our own interests here. Badly wounded by last year's tropical storms, unnerved by the April food riots, and dealing with a crumbling infrastructure, social and economic dislocations, and a highly dysfunctional political system, Haiti is floundering - and Rene Preval along with it. ¶2. (C) Preval is famously skeptical about the intentions of Haiti's international friends, despite the enormous US and international financial and political effort here, and has been known to chastise foreign interlocutors for their perceived lack of support. However, he appreciates that Haiti cannot go it alone. So he comes to Washington with high expectations, even though he has been repeatedly reminded that this visit is a private one. Nonetheless, should he have the chance to see either the President or the Secretary, however briefly, his agenda likely will include inter-related themes of development, security, and stability: -- Drugs. Preval argues, and we agree, that the flow of narcotics transiting Haiti corrupts the political process and is undermining the country's fragile democracy. A number of politicians, police, and judges are believed to be involved in, or profiting from, drugs; Guy Philippe, indicted in the U.S. for trafficking, is running for the Senate. However, we diverge on how best to handle the problem. Terming trafficking "an American problem," Preval dismisses any suggestion that the GOH needs to develop its own counternarcotics capacity. He has demanded that significantly more USG resources be devoted to drug interdiction, noting that we spend more money on stopping illegal migrants from Haiti sailing to the U.S. than we do to stop the flow of drugs to Haiti. We have had some modest success here in Haiti on the drug front, but remain constrained by local capacity, very limited resources, and a difficult operating environment. -- April Donors' Conference. The long-delayed donors' conference will be held in Washington April 6-7. Last year's' hurricanes and the world financial crisis have adversely impacted Haiti's national budget, development plans, and remittance flows. Preval was originally reluctant to hold the conference, believing that if it doesn't produce more assistance, Haitians will deem it - and him - a failure. We have urged him to look upon this meeting as a beginning, rather than an end, and use it to lay out the government's priorities for the remainder of his presidency, but he remains skeptical. He wants, I have been told, a signal that we are willing to ensure the Conference's success, perhaps through additional assistance, and he will suggest that we intercede on Haiti's behalf with non-traditional donors, such as the Arab Gulf states. -- Elections and Constitutional Reform. Preval belatedly came to the realization that the oft-postponed partial senatorial elections had to take place before he could launch a national debate on constitutional reform. Although he has yet to frame the terms of that debate, he is looking to the U.S. to support his call for constitutional reform. He argues, with some justification, that the 1987 Constitution is unworkable, expensive, and contradictory. But his proposal is controversial; many in the political class suspect the president's motives. It is critical that Haiti get back on the electoral calendar (the full Chamber of Deputies and the second third of the Senate are up later in the year) and hold a successful election. -- TPS. Prodded by the Haitian Diaspora and struggling to deal with the economic impact of the hurricanes, Preval requested that the USG grant Temporary Protected Status (TPS) to illegal Haitian migrants in the US. Angered by the December, 2008 rejection of that request, Preval will again raise this issue with the new Administration, arguing that Haiti cannot absorb any returned migrants in the wake of the hurricanes. With unemployment hovering around 70 percent, concerns about food shortages again this year, and large swaths of the country still impacted by hurricanes, Preval argues, with some justification that Haiti cannot absorb any returnees at this time. At the same time, we are seeing a spike in people taking to the sea in often vain attempts to reach U.S. shores as well as some foot dragging by the GOH in accepting deportees. Preval shares the widely held view here that a policy change on TPS and other migration issues is in the works. ¶3. (C) Should the opportunity present itself, I recommend that we use Preval's visit to reiterate our long-term support for Haiti while highlighting our concerns about the direction in which the country is headed. There is an urgent need here for a coherent vision of Haiti's future and a renewed effort to develop credible Haitian political institutions and processes to realize that future. Even if Preval fails to implement broad political change during his tenure, as now seems likely, he can leave a strong legacy by promoting political consensus and empowering the government by giving his Prime Minister, an old friend, the space to govern. Preval is not a strategic thinker, however, and he has never fully articulated what he hoped his presidency would bring. Yet his legacy is critical to Haiti's democratic and economic transition. Haiti's success - and our own here - will depend in large part on how Preval conducts himself during the next two years and how effectively he prepares the way to a peaceful, democratic handover of presidential power in 2011. ¶4. (C) Preval will deem his visit to Washington a success if he can lay the groundwork, however tentative, for a personal relationship with the new Administration. He clearly expects us to be forward leaning on his agenda, although he will only offer modest promises in return. While the timing of his visit may be premature, it represents an opportunity to listen to his concerns - and clearly make known our own expectations about Haiti's future and what he must do to shape that future. SANDERSON