HAITI: ARISTIDE'S PARTY, STILL IN DISARRAY,

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 PORT AU PRINCE 000104 SIPDIS DEPT FOR WHA/EX, WHA/CAR, S/CRS, AND INR/IAA WHA/EX PLEASE PASS TO USOAS SOUTHCOM ALSO FOR POLAD E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/30/2019 TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM HA SUBJECT: HAITI: ARISTIDE'S PARTY, STILL IN DISARRAY, PRESENTS ITS SENATORIAL CANDIDATES REF: A. 08 PORTAUPRINCE 1749 ¶B. 08 PORTAUPRINCE 1560 ¶C. 08 PORTAUPRINCE 1677 ¶D. 04 PORTAUPRINCE 97 ¶E. 04 PORTAUPRINCE 538 Classified By: Amb. Janet A. Sanderson for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) ¶1. (C) Summary: Hard line and moderate factions of the Fanmi Lavalas (FL) political party have registered competing lists of candidates for the partial senatorial elections scheduled for April 19. The hard liners' list included a number of close associates of Jean-Bertrand Aristide, some probably involved in political violence and other crimes in the period surrounding the former President's departure in 2004. The Provisional Electoral Council (CEP) may disqualify one or the other list, and thereby take a legal position on which of the two factions legitimately represents the party. Some in FL are sounding the alarm that the government seeks to exclude FL from the Senate elections entirely. Early indications are that Lavalas is positioned to perform well in these elections. End summary. HARDLINERS REBUFF RECONCILIATION ATTEMPT BY MODERATES -------------- -------------- ¶2. (C) The hard line faction of former President Jean-Bertrand Aristide's Fanmi Lavalas (FL) party in mid January registered their party for the upcoming Senate elections, and then presented candidates on January 23 for all 12 vacant seats for the upcoming senatorial elections, the only party to do so. Headed by Maryse Narcisse and the FL Executive Committee, the hard liners registered one candidate for each vacancy after an extended series of consultations. Five candidates from the FL moderate wing led by former Prime Minister Yvon Neptune also registered, in direct competition with the unified list chosen by the Executive Board, after an ill-conceived, last-minute reconciliation attempt initiated by the moderates failed. FL moderate Jonas Coffy told Poloff January 28 that a delegation of moderates went to the Aristide Foundation on the last day of candidate registrations to attempt to compromise on a list of candidates. The moderates were received by members of the Lavalas ''Electoral Committee'' -- not by Narcisse or other members of the Executive Board -- but found little sympathy for their position. The hardline candidates had already registered, Coffy was told, and in any event the Electoral Committee was not inclined to compromise. LAVALAS CANDIDATES ARE AMONG EARLY FRONTRUNNERS -------------- -- ¶3. (C) Initial indications are that FL hardliners are poised to gain several seats in the upcoming Senatorial elections. In a recent poll of 1,000 respondents, 14 percent of those surveyed said the political party they identified the most closely with is Lavalas, second only to President Preval's Lespwa coalition (24 percent). In addition, an informal MINUSTAH analysis shared confidentially with the Embassy identified 8 of 12 as among the frontrunners in their respective races. Lespwa (6) and OPL (3) trailed by a considerable margin. The same MINUSTAH analysis found that only one of the Lavalas ''moderates'' was a frontrunner, an assessment that corroborates the widespread belief here that the moderates lack the organization and popular support to mount a serious challenge to candidates chosen by the Executive Committee. (Note: The ''moderate'' in question is Jocelerme Privert, a former Aristide Minister of Interior with a questionable past -- see para. 11. End note) CEP FACES TOUGH QUESTIONS ON LAVALAS INTERNAL DISPUTES -------------- -------------- ¶4. (C) The two factions' dueling registrations for the contested Senate seats arise from basic disputes over party organization and leadership. Lavalas moderates claim that the party's Executive Committee was never constituted in accordance with the party's regulations and has no authority to select candidates; Executive Committee Coordinator Narcisse responds that the Committee was appointed by PORT AU PR 00000104 002 OF 004 Aristide and enjoys his continued support, and that Aristide approved the list of candidates himself. (Note: Fanmi Lavalas statutes do not specify a procedure for choosing the Executive Committee or electoral candidates, but they do name Aristide as the ''National Representative.'' Narcisse and her associates have a credible claim to proximity to Aristide, but we do not know whether Aristide approved the list of candidates for the upcoming elections. End note) ¶5. (C) Lavalas moderates' have missed several opportunities in contesting the hardliners' electoral list. They did not file a formal protest of Narcisse's registration of the party with the Provisional Electoral Council (CEP) or file their own registration, nor did they file a formal challenge to the registration of disputed candidates within the 72-hour window foreseen by the Electoral Law. Instead, the moderates wrote to the Ministry of Justice and the CEP asserting that Narcisse's Executive Committee lacks the legitimacy to register the party or field candidates (ref A). MODERATES, HARDLINERS BRACE FOR AN IMMINENT DECISION -------------- -------------- ¶6. (SBU) Press reports indicate that Lavalas's dueling lists were one subject of a meeting between President Rene Preval and CEP officials the week of January 21. In response to letters from the CEP seeking clarification on the Lavalas issue, the Minister of Justice replied January 26 that the Ministry did not intend to ''intervene in the internal affairs of any political party'' and that all questions regarding which representatives of a party are authorized to present candidates should be settled with reference to a 1986 decree on political parties and the internal regulations of the party in question. ¶7. (C) Given the ambiguity of prevailing law and FL party statutes, Senator Herivaux and the hard line faction he supports (ref B) appear to hold a tactical advantage. It was Herivaux who registered the party with the CEP for the 2006 elections and led the effort to get FL candidates to run for office. Correspondence from the CEP to Herivaux dated December 16, 2008 addresses him as the effective head of the party (although that letter also asks him to submit additional documents to comply with the provisions of the electoral law on party registration). Herivaux's name on the registration documents for the 2006 elections and the upcoming Senate contests, plus the relative organizational and popular strength of the hard liners he has sided with, appear to give Heriveaux and his pro-Aristide wing (ref B) the advantage in the dispute with the moderates over electoral lists. On January 29, moderate Yves Cristalin told Poloff that he had no indication how the CEP would rule but that the Minister of Justice had indicated that he would not intervene in the matter. Senator Herivaux told PolCouns privately January 28 he believed that the ''National Palace'' was pressuring the CEP to use the competing lists as a pretext to exclude FL from the elections altogether. Narcisse associate Nahoum Marcellus went further, denouncing a ''conspiracy by the CEP to dissolve Fanmi Lavalas.'' LAVALAS'S SENATE CANDIDATES: 2004 REVISITED -------------- ¶8. (C) The FL Executive Committee in consultation with an ''Electoral Committee'' it appointed selected the FL candidate list. All candidates advocate Aristide's return to Haiti as the Haitian government's highest priority (ref C). They are strident opponents of President Preval, whom they implicitly target with their official slogan ''for the return, against the betrayal.'' Lavalas Deputy Sorel Francois told Poloff January 15 that the Electoral Committee identified candidates in cooperation with the Mobilization Committee headed by FL militant Rene Civil. (Note: The Mobilization Committee organizes FL activities, including protests. End note) The Electoral Committee included Father Gerard Jean-Juste, Annette Auguste (also known as ''So Anne''; she reportedly did not participate),popular group organizer Jean-Marie Samedi, Lesly Gustave, Ancito Felix, and six other members. The Executive Committee signed off on the list of candidates before they were allowed to register under PORT AU PR 00000104 003 OF 004 the party's name, he said. ¶9. (C) The Executive Committee's list of candidates includes many former Aristide allies, some of whom have links to crime, drugs, and political violence. Nahoum Marcellus (North) was involved in the violent repression of an anti-Aristide protest in 2004 and is widely believed to be implicated in drug trafficking. Amanus Mayette (Artibonite) is a former leader of the pro-Aristide ''Bale Wouze'' gang that violently clashed with an anti-Aristide gang in St Marc in 2004, resulting in several deaths (ref D). Schiller Louidor (West) is a former Aristide official (2001-04) whose detractors say was involved in a drug scandal at the Port-au-Prince airport. Jacques Mathelier (South),a current FL Executive Board member and former departmental official under Aristide, was detained by the interim government after the former president's departure for suspected involvement in pro-Aristide violence. MINUSTAH assesses that these four candidates will be among the frontrunners in their respective departments. MODERATES FIELD SOME CANDIDATES, BUT UNLIKELY TO SUCCEED -------------- -------------- ¶10. (C) In most cases, candidates supported by FL moderates appear to lack the grassroots support and organizational capacity to conduct a campaign. Leaders of this faction, led by former Prime Minister Yvon Neptune and former Chamber of Deputies President Yves Cristalin, privately tell us they oppose Aristide's immediate return and resent his perceived stranglehold on the Lavalas party. They also denounce the hardliners as a group of ''bandits and thugs'' whose victory they say would jeopardize Haiti's stability. The moderates' strategy, according to Cristalin, will be to endorse certain of Narcisse's candidates while supporting alternates in certain cases, notably in Nippes, North, Northeast, and West Departments. ¶11. (C) While Neptune and Cristalin have tried to build a moderate base for their wing of the party, including through its ''Facilitation Group'' and an interim committee announced in November 2008 (ref B),they have allied themselves in some cases with close Aristide confidants for the upcoming elections, undermining their objections to the hardliners they denounce. In particular, they support the candidacy of Jocelerme Privert (Nippes),a former Minister of Interior under Aristide who was detained by the interim government that followed Aristide's departure, and Angelot Bell, a former Director General of the same ministry. Both are credibly alleged to have been involved in the arming of pro-Aristide gangs (''chimeres'') during the latter part of Aristide's second term as President (ref E). (Note: When Privert attempted to register, according to Cristalin, he was told another candidate -- Serge Gaspard -- had already registered under the Lavalas name. He subsequently decided to register as an independent, but Cristalin and Neptune will still support him. End note) COMMENT -------------- ¶12. (C) Divisions within Fanmi Lavalas may force Provisional Electoral Council (CEP) officials to make decisions they would rather avoid. Fanmis Lavalas is one of the strongest political parties in Haiti, and the one group that concerns the Government and President Preval the most. A decision to disqualify either competing FL list will have the electoral authority rule on an internal leadership dispute of a potent political party. A CEP exclusion of the hardliners list, while helpful to the government's interest of keeping radicals out of the Senate, could provoke public FL protests that could turn violent. Exclusion of the moderates' list would bolster the wing of the party that the government finds most threatening. Either way, the CEP decision will be decried as politically motivated. ¶13. (C) Comment continued: The CEP may also decide not to decide. There are reports circulating that the CEP will request ''derogatory information'' on candidates from Embassies here in an attempt to exclude (de-certify) those PORT AU PR 00000104 004 OF 004 whom the international community deems unacceptable. The optics of ''vetting'' Haitian Senatorial candidates is problematic, but clearly reflects GOH concerns about a possible Lavalas victory. One calculation appears to be to attempt to divide the FL vote by allowing competing Lavalas candidates to run in the same department, thereby helping other parties the government thinks it would be easier to work with. Haiti's political class is anxiously awaiting a decision from the CEP on the matter. It may come as early as the week of February 2. SANDERSON