RULING COALITION EXPECTED TO COAST TO VICTORY

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 PODGORICA 000074 SENSITIVE SIPDIS FOR EUR/SCE AND INR/EUR E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL MW SUBJECT: RULING COALITION EXPECTED TO COAST TO VICTORY REF: A: PODGORICA 65; B: PODGORICA 47; C: PODGORICA 71; AND D: PODGORICA 46 PODGORICA 00000074 001.2 OF 003 ¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: Montenegro's expanded Democratic Party of Socialists - Social Democratic Party coalition is expecting a landslide win in the March 29 election, with a solid parliamentary majority well within reach. The out-financed and fragmented opposition trails far behind, with only the three strongest parties, the left-centrist Socialist People's Party (SNP),the pro-Serb NOVA, and the civic Movement for Change (PzP) assured a return to Parliament. Several other parties and coalitions are hovering around the three percent parliamentary threshold. Barring an eleventh-hour surprise (such as a surge of votes for a radical Serb bloc),the next Parliament -- and therefore the next government -- will look similar to the current one, only less oppositionist, and possibly more centrist. END SUMMARY. Coalition Victory Expected -------------- ¶2. (SBU) With two days remaining before Montenegro's March 29 parliamentary election, the ruling Democratic Party of Socialists (DPS),in an expanded coalition with long-time junior partner the Social Democratic Party (SDP) and newcomers the Bosniak Party (BS) and Croatian Civic Initiative (HGI),is poised to win a landslide victory. According to a March 9-15 poll by the NGO CEDEM (which has been fairly accurate predicting the results of previous elections),the so-called "European Montenegro - Milo Djukanovic" coalition is supported by 51.2 percent of likely voters. Leading Opposition Parties -------------- ¶3. (SBU) Trailing far behind is the fragmented opposition, which failed to unite despite a flurry of highly publicized initiatives at the beginning of the year. (Note: In total, 16 parties and coalitions are registered for the election). At this point, only the three strongest opposition parties are likely to return to Parliament. They are: --The Socialist People's Party (SNP): The SNP has struggled to reconcile its conservative, anti-independence, and largely Serb base with leader Srdjan Milic's desire to create a modern, civic party. After losing support steadily over several elections, the SNP has gained back ground rapidly over the past year, in part due to turmoil within its two main opposition rivals. The SNP, which retains a strong organization throughout Montenegro, presents itself as a responsible, pro-European party. According to the CEDEM poll, 16.8 percent of Montenegrins support SNP. --New Serbian Democracy (NOVA): Former second-place presidential candidate Andrija Mandic recently transformed his Serbian People's Party (SNS) -- the leading force within the Serbian List alliance -- into NOVA. Mandic hopes that NOVA, by downplaying Serb identity issues and focusing on improving the quality of life of all Montenegrins, will expand his electorate. The immediate effect, however, was to split the Serbian List, and disgruntled new Serbian National List (SNL) coalition, composed of the Serbian Radical Party and the Party of the Serbian People, are now attacking Mandic for selling out Serb interests. NOVA is still far and away the strongest Serb party, but the discord could cut into its results. According to the CEDEM poll (which some claim tends to underestimate support for Serb parties),NOVA has 12 percent of the vote. --Movement for Change (PzP): Once aspiring to be Montenegro's leading opposition party, the centrist, multi-ethnic PzP has plummeted in the polls following leader Nebojsa Medojevic's disappointing third place showing the April 2008 presidential race. In January (reftel A),several of the party's MPs and a sizeable number of activists, disenchanted with Medojevic's mercurial leadership and propensity to play to all sides on major issues, split to form the Democratic Center (now allied PODGORICA 00000074 002.2 OF 003 with the Liberal Party). The CEDEM poll, vigorously disputed by PzP supporters, gives the party only 6.3 percent support (an IRI poll, in the field in February before opposition parties had decided against a pre-election coalition and before the campaign had officially started, put PzP at 9.7 percent support among all voters.) Best of the Rest? -------------- ¶4. (SBU) The polls show only two other parties/coalitions on the cusp of the parliamentary threshold: --The Democratic Center - Liberal Party (DC-LP) alliance: The former PzP-ites in the DC bill their new party as a pro-Montenegrin, "third-way" alternative to the ruling coalition and nationalist parties (in contrast to the PzP, which failed to take a stance on independence and which recently has been chummy with Mandic.) The Liberal Party is known for its skepticism of NATO membership, but will anyway fold their party into the DC (which is more open to the possibility of NATO) after the election. CEDEM puts support for the DC-LP, which appears to have some significant financial backing, at 2.9 percent (the IRI poll has the combined total of the two parties at 3.3 percent). --The Party of Pensioners and Disabled: According to CEDEM, the Party, a new organization based on military veterans and retirees concerned about the effects of the global economic crisis, is supported by 3.5 percent of the population. Skeptics, however, predict that the party's lack of infrastructure and funding makes it likely to fade at the finish. ¶5. (SBU) Among the remaining candidates, the pro-Serb People's Party - Democratic Serbian Party (NS-DSS) coalition has polled badly, but its constituent parties have three MPs in the current Parliament and retain some infrastructure. The radical Serbian National List, comprised of disgruntled former members of the Serbian List, has made some noise during the campaign (often by attacking NOVA) but has 1.6 percent support, according to the CEDEM poll. With the exception of a new "Bosniaks and Muslims Together" coalition (polling at 1.9 percent),other non-Albanian parties/coalitions - including the radical Fatherland Serbian Party and the Montenegrin Communist Party - barely register. Albanian Parties -------------- ¶6. (SBU) Five of the 81 seats in Parliament are elected by votes cast in approximately 70 majority-Albanian polling stations. In the September 2006 election, the DPS won two of these seats, while three small Albanian parties -- the pro-GoM Democratic Union of Albanians (DUA) and the opposition Democratic Alliance of Montenegro (DSCG) and Albanian Alternative (AA) -- garnered an MP apiece. Observers predict that the ruling coalition will retain its two seats (and could even gain a third, although that is uncertain). The DUA should regain its one seat, but faces a battle from three Albanian opposition parties. Election Silence Begins -------------- ¶7. (U) The election silence begins at midnight on the evening of March 27, and lasts until 9pm on March 29, when voting booths close. According to the law, political parties are banned from espousing political stances to the public during this period. PODGORICA 00000074 003.2 OF 003 Comment -------------- ¶8. (SBU) The ruling coalition is the overwhelming favorite in this low-key election, with the main drama centered around whether it can gain an absolute majority of votes. Even if it fails to achieve this, the coalition is still likely to get a solid majority, since a number of votes will be "wasted" on parties failing to clear the parliamentary threshold which will in turn give winning parties proportionally more seats. A secondary drama is unfolding for pride of place as leading opposition party. Currently, the SNP appears likely to gain seats, and PzP is likely to lose some. Barring an unlikely last minute surprise, such as a surge of votes for the Serbian National List -- polls sometimes underestimate Serb voters -- the return to Parliament of a now less-nationalistic NOVA (along with the moderate SNP and PzP, and perhaps DC-LP) bodes well for the centrist nature of the next Parliament. Otherwise, the new Parliament is likely to look a lot like the current Parliament, only with fewer opposition MPs. MOORE