MONTENEGRIN ELECTION CAMPAIGN: SOME IRREGULARITIES, BUT

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 PODGORICA 000071 SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL MW SUBJECT: MONTENEGRIN ELECTION CAMPAIGN: SOME IRREGULARITIES, BUT GENERALLY FREE AND FAIR (SO FAR) REF: PODGORICA 47 PODGORICA 00000071 001.2 OF 003 ¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: While noting certain irregularities, international observers assess that Montenegro's election process in advance of the March 29 parliamentary elections has so far been generally free and fair and is more or less on a par with last year's Presidential elections. As in previous elections, opposition parties and a number of our own interlocutors have accused the GoM and ruling coalition of misusing state resources and pressuring state employees, and many complain of the ruling coalition's overwhelming financial advantage. The OSCE/ODIHR mission thus far has not substantiated the more serious charges, but has identified a strong pro-Government bias by both state and private TV news. Nevertheless, opposition parties have been able to put out their message via TV and print media and many political rallies of varying sizes. To date the overall campaign has been low-key and largely uneventful. END SUMMARY. Some Controversy Over Legislation -------------- ¶2. (U) Despite initial controversy over the constitutionality of electoral legislation and suffrage eligibility (reftel),the election will be run according to the current election law. The OSCE/ODIHR mission believes there is nothing in existing legislation that directly contradicts the Constitution or European norms. The OSCE noted to us March 25, however, that it is disappointed that Montenegro has not rectified certain minor shortcomings identified in ODIHR's report on the 2008 Presidential elections and will again call for them to be addressed after the upcoming elections. The OSCE also notes, however, that the GoM has not contested the inclusion of thousands of pro-Serb voters in the voting rolls whose citizenship has not yet been regularized. Few Doubts About Election Day Vote -------------- ¶3. (U) Domestic and international experts have expressed few concerns about the integrity of the vote on election day, as Montenegro's election administration and voting safeguards have earned good marks in past elections. In addition, OSCE/ODIHR also will field more than 100 short and long-term observers, who will be joined by approximately 500 local observers from the Center for Democratic Transition (CDT) NGO, which will also conduct a parallel vote tabulation (Note: CDT's election activities are funded by NDI). Campaign: A Low-Key Affair... -------------- ¶4. (SBU) Overall, the campaign is being conducted in a peaceful, low-key manner. All participants but one minor Serb party signed a code of conduct and are generally abiding by it. We have seen few reports of parties having problems arranging and holding meetings and rallies, and advertising is in evidence on TV, in print, and on billboards (although some opposition parties complain of having difficulty renting the last). ¶5. (SBU) In terms of message, opposition parties are criticizing the GoM for poor performance and corruption. In the face of the global economic crisis, all parties are focusing on improving the economy and quality of life, and all profess support for Montenegro's European aspirations. A few (pro-Serb parties) have criticized the GoM's recognition of Kosovo and have seized on the 10th anniversary of the NATO intervention to criticize NATO and oppose the GOM's NATO aspirations. The leading pro-Serb party ("Nova") on 3/24 even advocated for the disappearance of borders between Montenegro, Serbia, and Republika Srpska. ...With Some Areas of Concern PODGORICA 00000071 002.2 OF 003 -------------- ¶6. (SBU) Party representatives and a number of our interlocutors have raised several g concerns about the campaign. Most, if not all, of these concerns have been raised in previous elections in Montenegro: --Lack of adequate financing: Opposition representatives complain that the funding each party/coalition will get from the state budget (17,000 Euros) before election day, which was reduced by the coalition-led Parliament, is inadequate to cover campaign costs (and that many local activists have not seen any of this money). They also charge that the DPS is flush with cash from rental of buildings to the government. --Abuse of state resources: The opposition has charged that the GoM is using state vehicles and transport to campaign rallies. They also point to a sharp increase in infrastructure projects, and allege that DPS activists are promising voters jobs in state enterprises. In another example, SNP officials in Rozaje told us that municipal officials (belonging to the ruling Democratic Party of Socialists (DPS)) had turned down their request to hold a rally at a local school on the grounds that political events should not be held in educational establishments. They were furious to learn that the following night the DPS had hosted its own rally at the same school. --Pressure on State Employees: We also have heard accusations from numerous sources that directors of state enterprises and institutions are intimidating workers into voting for the ruling coalition. In response to several stories about pressure on schoolteachers, the Ministry of Education sent a letter to all school principals in Montenegro warning that such actions were illegal. --Illegal Purchase of IDs: Opposition parties have claimed that the DPS has been purchasing or "renting" voters' identity documents in order to prevent them from voting, and possibly in order to photo sub the documents. --Bias in Broadcast Media: The election law guarantees access to both free and paid TV time and print space, and state broadcaster RTCG has granted a predetermined amount of airtime to each registered party. However, opposition representatives claim that the TV media is still slanted in its coverage toward the government and ruling coalition; they also have complained about the high price of some TV advertising. ODIHR: Nothing Yet on Allegations... -------------- ¶7. (SBU) Senior OSCE/ODIHR representatives have told us that the mission is aggressively investigating allegations of irregularities. However, to date they have not turned up any hard evidence. Regarding ID buying, the ODIHR representative noted that similar claims circulated widely during the 2008 presidential election campaign, but were not substantiated. ...But Definite Slant in TV News Coverage -------------- ¶8. (SBU) However, OSCE/ODIHR's chief media analyst told the diplomatic corps on March 17 that an analysis of Montenegro's six main channels had uncovered a strong bias in TV news coverage in favor of the GoM (and by extension, the ruling coalition). Positive coverage of the activities of government ministers and officials dominated news coverage on all stations, including private ones, and was "well beyond what is PODGORICA 00000071 003.2 OF 003 reasonable," the analyst said. If anything, private channels were even more slanted towards the GoM/coalition. Comment -------------- ¶9. (SBU) Senior OSCE officials have told us that they see Montenegro's election process so far as "generally free and fair" and on a par with last year's Presidential elections. There is general confidence in the country's electoral administration, and significant election day fraud seems very unlikely. Given the governing parties' huge lead in the polls, many observers have pointed out that the GoM has little incentive to try to skew the vote - particularly given international scrutiny in the wake of Montenegro's applications for the EU and MAP. ¶10. (SBU) The allegations of ID buying and pressure on state employees have thus far been largely unsubstantiated, although we do not discount that the latter is occurring at some state institutions and companies. More easily verifiable is the alleged use of state resources for electoral advantage - and here it is clear that the GoM has ratcheted up activities and projects in a significant way. Also in evidence is the paucity of criticism of the government on TV news. That said, outside of news segments, TV stations have devoted ample time to political talk shows and debates in which opposition viewpoints are heard. Print media is also lively, as two of the three major dailies are critical of the GoM. ¶11. (SBU) We also note that this campaign has been much more subdued and less emotional than previous races. In part, this is due to the fact that emotions surrounding many big issues - independence, the Constitution, Kosovo recognition - have diminished. Interlocutors also tell us that politicians and voters alike are suffering from election fatigue. In addition, the flat feeling to the campaign is also attributable to the ruling coalition's overwhelming lead in the polls (over 50 percent according to a survey published March 18),and the fractured, dispirited state of the opposition parties, several of whom have recently undergone bitter schisms. MOORE