NEW DPS GOVERNMENT LIKELY TO LOOK A LOT LIKE OLD DPS

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 PODGORICA 000032 SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PINR MW SUBJECT: NEW DPS GOVERNMENT LIKELY TO LOOK A LOT LIKE OLD DPS GOVERNMENT REF: PODGORICA 23 PODGORICA 00000032 001.2 OF 004 ¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: With pre-term parliamentary elections set for March 29 (reftel) and Prime Minister Djukanovic's Democratic Party of Socialists (DPS) the favorite to return to power, key cabinet members are already jostling for a spot in the next government. While there is plenty of speculation that Djukanovic is grooming newly appointed Deputy Prime Minister Luksic to replace him, a DPS victory would likely see many of the same faces continue in power. This message, the first in a series on the upcoming parliamentary elections, provides biographic details on the key figures in the DPS. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (SBU) Following the Parliament's January 26 vote to curtail its mandate, President Vujanovic announced that new elections will be held March 29 (reftel). The heavy favorite remains the Democratic Party of Socialists (DPS) - Social Democratic Party (SDP) coalition. Should this coalition return to power, we expect a number of key figures from both parties to reenter the new government; this cable takes a look at some of the top players in the DPS, the senior coalition partner. THE ONE TO WATCH? -------------- ¶3. (SBU) The promotion of Finance Minister Igor Luksic to Deputy Prime Minister on December 26, 2008 has fueled widespread speculation that Djukanovic is positioning Luksic to succeed him as the next Prime Minister. The youthful Luksic, long a Djukanovic favorite, has been Minister of Finance since 2004 and a member of the DPS presidency since 2000. Luksic was rumored to be a leading candidate for the PM slot in 2006, but reportedly lost out because of concerns regarding his relative inexperience and local media speculation that he had strong ties to Russia. (Note: Instead another DPS presidency member, Zeljko Sturanovic, untouched by the corruption charges that have plagued many DPS leaders, was made PM in 2006; he stepped down for health reason is February 2008. End Note.) ¶4. (U) Luksic was born in 1976 in Bar, Montenegro. He graduated from the Faculty of Economics in Podgorica in 1998 and earned a Master's Degree from the same school in 2002. Luksic attended various international specialization courses, including one at the Diplomatic Academy in Vienna in 1999. In his short career, Luksic served as Secretary of the MFA, and in 2003 as public relations advisor to Djukanovic (who was also PM at the time), who helped Luksic become Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs of Serbia and Montenegro in 2003. Luksic also served two terms as an MP in Montenegro's Parliament. He has published several professional papers and books as well as a book of poetry and prose. He is married and has no children, and speaks excellent English, as well as French and Italian. THE DPS INNER CIRCLE -------------- ¶5. (SBU) The following individuals are considered to be part of the DPS inner circle, and will be key decision makers whether they stay in government or not: --Milan Rocen, Minister of Foreign Affairs. Rocen was born on November 23, 1950 in Zabljak, Montenegro. He graduated from the Faculty of Political Science in Belgrade and was a journalist for the magazine "Ekonomska Politika" in Belgrade (1976-79). In the 1980s he worked his way up in the Central Committee of the League of Communists of Montenegro, first in the Information and Propaganda Department(1979-82) and then as Political Chief of Staff to the Central Committee President (1982-88). Rocen was Montenegro's Deputy Foreign Minister (1988-92) before serving as Minister Counselor (1992-97) and Charge d'Affaires (1993-94) at the Yugoslav Embassy in Moscow. From 1997-2003, Rocen was Djukanovic's Foreign Policy Advisor and then Chief Political Advisor before returning to Moscow as Ambassador of Serbia and Montenegro (2003-2006). Rocen and his wife, Stana, have one son, Filip. He speaks Russian fluently, but little English. PODGORICA 00000032 002.2 OF 004 -- Branimir Gvozdenovic, Minister for Economic Development. Gvozdenovic, a member of the DPS presidency, became Minister in November 2006 after serving as Deputy Prime Minister for Economic Policy and Development from 2003 to 2006. He was born in 1961 in Bar and graduated from the Electro-Technical Faculty in Podgorica. Utilizing his IT skills, Gvozdenovic then worked his way up in the government, first as a programmer for the Information Committee (1986-98),then as Advisor for Development of Information System in the Secretariat for Development (1989-90),Senior Adviser for Informatics in the Development Bureau (1990-1991),Assistant Director of the Republican Development Bureau (1991-95),and Assistant Secretary of the Republican Secretariat for Development (1995-99). In 1999, Gvozdenovic became Director of Montenegro's postal service, and in 2002 he served as Acting Minister of Maritime Affairs. From 2002-2003 he was Mayor of Bar Municipality and from 2002-2005 he was President of the Board of Directors of Montenegro's Electric Power Company. In 2003 he served as Acting Minister of Tourism. Gvozdenovic is married and has two children. He speaks some English, but is uncomfortable using it in official meetings. -- Milutin Simovic, Minister of Agriculture, Forestry, and Water Management. A member of the DPS presidency and Agriculture Minister since 1998, Simovic has a strong academic and professional background in agriculture. He was born on December 29, 1961 in Niksic, and graduated from the Agricultural Faculty in Novi Sad, Serbia, where he obtained a Master's Degree in ¶1991. In 1986 he began working at the Agricultural Institute in Podgorica, where he was promoted to Science Assistant in 1990, and Senior Researcher in 1991. Simovic is a member of the Society of Agricultural Engineers and Technicians of Montenegro, and has published scientific papers and attended several expert courses in Holland. He is married and has two children. He does not speak English. -- Boro Vucinic, Minister of Defense. Vucinic became Minister in November 2006 despite having no defense or military related experience. A long-standing DPS member, he served as Minister for Environment and Urban Planning in the previous cabinet and also was a member of the DPS presidency until 2007. (Note: Vucinic was not reelected to the presidency at the DPS's May 2007 congress; this was reportedly at his own request, and he continues to maintain close ties to the DPS leadership. End Note.) -- Vucinic was born in 1954 in Podgorica. He graduated from the Faculty of Law in Podgorica in 1978 and received an MA from the same university in 2005. Vucinic started his career at the Titograd Civil Engineering Organization (a building company) and then worked for Podgorica municipal bodies including as head of administration of public revenues and as Deputy Mayor of Podgorica Municipality. He also served as a councilor in the Podgorica municipal assembly and as an MP in the Parliament of Montenegro, where he served on committees dealing with legislation and the constitutional charter of Serbia and Montenegro. Vucinic also has led various sports committees; he was president of the Target Shooting Association of Yugoslavia, first president of the Montenegrin Olympic committee, and vice president of Yugoslav Olympic Committee. He is married and has four children. He has been studying English and now has basic conversational skills but good comprehension. -- Miodrag Radunovic, Minister of Health, Labor, and Social Welfare. Minister since November 2006, Radunovic is also a member of the DPS presidency. Radunovic was born on October 9, 1959 in Berane, Montenegro. He attended elementary and secondary school in Berane and graduated from the Medical Faculty in Nis, Serbia. Radunovic specialized in general surgery at the Medical Faculty in Belgrade and has attended surgical training in both Serbia and Montenegro. He worked at the health care center in Berane (1982-1984) and in the surgical department of the Berane General Hospital (1984-1997). From 1998-2003 he was Director of the Public Health Institution at the General Hospital in Berane. From 2004-2006 Radunovic worked in surgery clinics at the Clinical Center of Podgorica. Radunovic has participated in international conventions on surgery and SFRY surgical congresses. He is married and has one child. He speaks English and German. PODGORICA 00000032 003.2 OF 004 -- Suad Numanovic, Minister without Portfolio. Numanovic, Minister since 2003, is arguably the DPS's most prominent Muslim leader, with strong ties to northern Montenegro. Numanovic was born in 1960 in Bijelo Polje (northern Montenegro) and graduated from the Faculty of Medicine there. Numanovic, who specializes in internal medicine, worked at the hospital in Bijelo Polje and was Director of the medical center in Bijelo Polje from 2001-2003. He has served as a president of the DPS Bijelo Polje municipal board, and also served as President of the Government Commissions for Housing Issues, the Government Personal Commission, and the Government Commission for Natural Hazards Damage Assessment. He is married and has four children; he does not speak English. -- Svetozar Marovic, DPS Vice President. A DPS insider and Djukanovic confidant, Marovic has concentrated on party business (and his own personal business interests) since September 2006, when he resigned from his seat in Parliament. He had served as the first and last President of the State Union of Serbia and Montenegro from March 2003 until Montenegro's independence referendum in May 2006. Since leaving the government, Marovic has become a major player in Montenegro's rapidly developing economy, including in the real estate sector in Budva. Recently he has been taking a more public role in the DPS, and some pundits speculate that he may be looking to return to the government after the elections. -- Marovic was born in Kotor in 1955, but grew up in Budva and considers Budva his hometown. He graduated from the Faculty of Law in Podgorica and has practiced law in Budva. He began his political career early, serving in numerous local and state level government positions, including as President of the Alliance of Socialist Youth Budva and as President of the Socialist Youth Alliance of Montenegro. Marovic considers himself a philosopher and has written several books widely published in Serbia and Montenegro. He and his wife Djana have two children, Milos and Milena. Marovic speaks English, Italian, and Russian. THE TECHNOCRATS -------------- ¶6. (SBU) The following individuals are DPS members, not in the DPS leadership, who have proven themselves to be indispensable to the work of the current government. It is likely that they will find a place in the next government: -- Gordana Djurovic, Deputy Prime Minister for European Integration. Appointed in November 2006, Djurovic is one of the hardest working members of the government. She heads the task force which oversees the implementation of the GoM's Action Plan to combat organized crime and corruption and has spearheaded the GoM's efforts to join the WTO, as well as the EU. Djurovic was previously Minister for International Economic Relations and European Integration of Montenegro from 2003 to 2006. She was born in Novi Knezevac (Vojvodina, Serbia) in 1964, where she attended primary school. She graduated from the Secondary School of Economics in Herceg Novi, Montenegro, in 1982, and in 1986 from the Faculty of Economics in Belgrade. Djurovic received her Master's Degree in 1991 from the Faculty of Economics in Podgorica in comparative analysis of modern economic systems, and earned a PhD from the same faculty in the field of economic development planning in transition countries. -- Djurovic was associate vice-dean for scientific research at the Faculty of Economics in Podgorica (1998-2000),and Head of the Department of Economic Policy of the same faculty. She is currently a professor at the Faculty, teaching undergraduate courses in economic development, international economic relations, and regional economy. Djurovic also is head of postgraduate studies in European economic integration and teaches the economics of the EU and enlargement policy. She is a member of the DPS, but tells us that she prefers to avoid "politics." She is married and has two sons. Djurovic speaks excellent English. PODGORICA 00000032 004.2 OF 004 -- Predrag Nenezic, Minister of Tourism and Environmental Protection. Nenezic was appointed Minister in November 2006, as after having been Minister of Tourism since 2001. He was born in 1970 in Cetinje and was raised in Kotor. He attended primary and secondary schools in Frankfurt, Germany, where his father represented a Montenegrin Bank. After returning to Montenegro, Predrag Nenezic worked as a tour guide and graduated from the Faculty of Economics in Podgorica in 1994. In 1995, he joined the Agency for Economic Restructuring and was promoted to Manager of the Privatization Department of the Government Development Fund. In 1999, he was appointed Advisor to the Prime Minister for International Economic Affairs. -- Since 2002, Nenezic has chaired the Tender Commission for Privatization of Hotel and Tourism Assets. He also has served on the Board of Montenegro Airlines and as Chairman of the Board of the Public Coastal Area Management Company. He has twice been elected to the Parliament. Nenezic currently is pursuing post graduate studies in management and international relations. He is unmarried, and is fluent in English and German. COMMENT -------------- ¶7. (SBU) The DPS insiders in the current cabinet are likely to return in a future government, though possibly with different titles. The most important position - Prime Minister - may be up for grabs. Several DPS insiders claim that Djukanovic plans to step out of the political spotlight - again - following the election. However others in the party say this is unlikely, or that if Djukanovic does step down, he is more likely to do so mid-term. Should Djukanovic step down, many of our contacts believe Luksic is the most likely successor. A wildcard could be Marovic, a heavy-hitter with a serious political resume. End comment. MOORE