SCENESETTER FOR ADRIATIC CHARTER CHOD CONFERENCE, SACEUR

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 PODGORICA 000198 SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PREL PGOV ECON MARR MOPS MW SUBJECT: SCENESETTER FOR ADRIATIC CHARTER CHOD CONFERENCE, SACEUR VISIT TO MONTENEGRO PODGORICA 00000198 001.2 OF 004 ¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: Welcome to Montenegro. Your visit comes as the Montenegrin leadership continues on its pro-NATO, pro-western course, having recognized neighboring Kosovo in October 2008 and formally applied for EU membership in December ¶2008. The Government of Montenegro (GoM) remains a receptive interlocutor, eager to develop strong ties with Washington and to prove itself a reliable partner. The GoM also continues preparing for its goal of eventual NATO membership by pursuing the Intensified Dialogue with NATO begun in 2008, working to increase public support for NATO membership, and lobbying for a Membership Action Plan (MAP) invitation. The MoD and MFA leadership have responded positively to the NATO Communiqui released after the April summit. The GoM is making contributions to NATO peacekeeping operations, including plans to deploy its own military units to ISAF. The economy has been fueled heavily by FDI in the tourism sector, but faces slower growth in 2009 due in large part to the global economic crisis. END SUMMARY NATO Membership a Top GoM Priority -------------- ¶2. (SBU) The GoM has stated that NATO Membership is a strategic goal. Montenegro was invited to Intensified Political Dialogue at the NATO Bucharest Summit in April 2008. Public support for NATO is still tepid, in significant measure due to memories of the 1999 NATO intervention (according to recent polls, public support stands slightly above 30 percent, with another 40 percent opposed, and the remainder undecided). The GoM, assisted by several NGOs, has initiated a communications strategy to increase public support for membership among the population. Montenegrin officials were encouraged by the positive statements on Montenegro in the NATO communiqui, and are lobbying for a MAP invitation at or before the December NATO ministerial. ¶3. (SBU) Following independence from the state union with Serbia in 2006, and unlike most other ministries in the GoM, the Ministry of Defense (MoD) -- led by Minister of Defense Boro Vucinic -- has had to build its organization from the ground up. Developing its human resource capacity is proving to be perhaps its biggest challenge. Other challenges include prioritizing requirements, building the legal and regulatory framework for its volunteer force, and establishing a functioning procurement system. ¶4. (SBU) The Montenegrin Armed Forces are led by Chief of Defense Admiral Dragan Samardzic. Montenegro's outdated, ill-equipped military is still working to organize itself as a modern, NATO-interoperable force capable of contributing to international operations. The latest Montenegrin Strategic Defense Review (SDR) calls for a 2400-person force (plus 300 reservists) structure under a combined service of naval, ground, and air assets. Their goal is a combat capable, fully professional force which can join NATO, but also is capable of homeland defense, assisting in civilian crisis management. ¶5. (SBU) Montenegro continues to make forward progress in establishing its nascent defense institutions and future military structure. This was validated by NATO's assessment team, in-country 26-28 January 2009 to look at the Montenegrin's Planning and Review Plan (PARP). The MoD has received positive feedback on their reforms to date. Potential niche capabilities are in the areas of salvage and recovery operations, a regional demining diving center, mountain infantry, deployable medical teams, and potentially a regional helicopter training center. ¶6. (SBU) In June 2008, Montenegro completed the destruction of 1500 Strela Man Portable Air Defense Systems (MANPADs) under a two million dollar USG demilitarization program. We are continuing the program to encompass the destruction of more than 2,000 Sea Mines, rockets, and other outdated arms and ammunition. Additionally, Montenegro officially donated more than 1500 small arms weapons and 200,000 rounds of ammunition to the Government of Afghanistan in September 2007. In December PODGORICA 00000198 002.2 OF 004 2007, the GoM signed a Transit Agreement with NATO to facilitate the use of its territory to reinforce KFOR in the event reserves are needed in Kosovo. As a result of the recent PARP assessment, Montenegro may have additional items to donate or sell that are now considered excess. ¶7. (SBU) Montenegro has signed an Article 98 Agreement with the U.S. and plans on sending peacekeeping contingents to the Near East. In October 2007, at the USG's request, the GoM committed to send troops from its fledgling military to Iraq. Before that commitment could be fulfilled, the GoM agreed to a new USG request to deploy an infantry platoon to the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) mission in Afghanistan. In late April, Montenegro contracted a U.S. firm (MPRI) to train two platoons, one of which is expected to deploy with a Hungarian unit based in Pol-i-Khomri under the command of German led Regional Command (North) (RC(N)) in February 2010 (the other will rotate in after four months). Montenegro also has a three-man medical team ready to deploy now. Montenegro's MoD is in active negotiations with Norway, Hungary and Germany to deploy their medical team. Additionally, Montenegro plans to deploy two liaison officers (LNO) to the RC(N) headquarters in Mazar-e-Sharif by the end of September 2009. ¶8. (SBU) Montenegro has recently started their training cycle with both MPRI, the Hungarian Armed Forces, and German Bundeswehr to assist in preparing their infantry company for deployments in support of International Security Assistance Force (ISAF). The Montenegrin Armed Forces are scheduled to finish this training in December of this year. Montenegro also will look to Germany to fill some of the shortfalls in equipment and in preparing their forces for NATO inter-operability. Stable, Pro-Western Democracy -------------- ¶9. (SBU) Montenegro has come a long way in the three years since independence from the state union with Serbia. The country has held democratic elections, built state institutions, privatized and grown its economy, adeptly managed relations among its ethnic groups (Montenegrins, Serbs, Muslims, Bosniaks, Albanians, Croats, Roma, and others),and launched an ambitious drive for full Euro-Atlantic integration. A majority of the population support EU membership, and Montenegro formally applied for EU candidate country status in December 2008. In April, the European Commission began its assessment (the "avis"),which could eventually result in Montenegro being granted formal candidate status, perhaps in the latter part of ¶2010. ¶10. (SBU) Montenegro's pro-Western leadership views the U.S. as a strategic ally and is grateful for substantial U.S. assistance which helped keep the country afloat after Montenegro broke with Milosevic in the late 90s. The GoM generally supports U.S. priorities, sometimes at considerable political risk. For example, the GoM is enthusiastically pursuing NATO membership despite limited public support, and it recognized Kosovo in October 2008 over virulent domestic opposition and warnings from neighboring Serbia. ¶11. (SBU) Pre-term parliamentary elections in late March resulted in a landslide victory for Prime Minister (PM) Djukanovic's ruling Democratic Party of Socialists (DPS) - Social Democratic Party (SDP) coalition - now including Bosniak and Croat parties - over a fragmented and fractious opposition. As was the case with the 2006 independence referendum and subsequent polls, the OSCE noted some problems but assessed this election as generally meeting international standards. PM Djukanovic, heading the GoM for the sixth time, pledged to intensify Montenegro's drive for EU and NATO membership. PODGORICA 00000198 003.2 OF 004 Playing a Positive Regional Role -------------- ¶12. (SBU) Montenegro is a member of the United Nations (UN), Organization for Security and Coordination in Europe (OSCE),and the Council of Europe. It also has been a constructive regional player, building good relations with all its neighbors. Montenegro actively participates in numerous regional initiatives (such as CEFTA, which it currently chairs, SECI, the Stability Pact, etc.). Montenegro and Croatia agreed to refer a dispute over their maritime border (at the entrance to Kotor Bay) to the ICJ, offering a potential model for resolution of similar disputes elsewhere in the region. ¶13. (SBU) The GoM recognized Kosovo in October 2008 over widespread opposition, including large demonstrations. Ethnic Serbs, roughly a third of the population, were particularly incensed. The GoM has not yet established official diplomatic relations with Pristina, and continues to treat the issue gingerly. Nevertheless, the governments of Montenegro and Kosovo continue to interact regularly at senior levels, and there has been substantial cooperation among police, border, and customs officials. Moreover, the GoM joined us in supporting Kosovo's membership in the IMF and World Bank. Achilles Heel: Rule of Law? -------------- ¶14. (SBU) Montenegro has made significant progress in overcoming its 1990s reputation as a hub for smuggling and organized crime. According to Transparency International and Freedom House rankings, it is about even with most of its neighbors in corruption perceptions (as well as in most other democracy measures). However, as in other transition countries, it still faces significant rule of law challenges. ¶15. (SBU) Montenegro is located at an historic smuggling crossroads, and law enforcement officials and the judiciary are underfunded and underequipped. Many Montenegrins list corruption among the country's biggest problems, and some worry that the ruling coalition's dominance will dampen the GoM's desire to vigorously identify and prosecute graft. The leadership tells us that they understand that rule of law issues must be addressed for Montenegro to enter the EU and NATO. Still, the GoM will have to strengthen its record -- particularly in the enforcement area -- if it is to pass muster for full membership. Global Crisis Meets Booming Economy -------------- ¶16. (SBU) Montenegro's economy, fueled by a boom in coastal tourism and investment, expanded rapidly over the past few years. During this period the GoM also tamed inflation, moved closer to WTO membership, privatized almost 90 percent of the economy, and created a generally business-friendly environment. The result has been the highest per capita rate of FDI in the region. ¶17. (SBU) Although the Embassy recently helped establish an AmCham and a U.S.-Montenegro Business Council, U.S. trade and investment remain at disappointingly low levels. However, the GoM plans billions of Euros worth of tenders over the next two years in infrastructure, tourism, and energy, and is eagerly courting U.S. investors, in part to balance against heavy Russian investment, most of which occurred earlier in the decade. (In 2008, Russia ranked number one in terms of aggregate FDI to date). We have not seen indications that the Russian economic presence has translated into political or diplomatic influence. PODGORICA 00000198 004.2 OF 004 ¶18. (SBU) Despite impressive recent trends, the economic growth seen in the past two years -- seven percent in 2007 and eight percent in 2008 -- is likely to slow considerably in 2009. Montenegro's narrow economic base makes it particularly vulnerable to the global economic crisis. Montenegro's largest employer, a Russian-owned aluminum plant, is near bankruptcy, tourist numbers are down (tourism accounts for about 20 percent of GDP),the country's largest domestic bank (majority-owned by the PM's family) required a bailout in December, and the rest of the banking sector remains vulnerable. MOORE