THE TWO MONTENEGROS

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 PODGORICA 000159 SENSITIVE SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/SCE AND EUR/ACE E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL ECON EAID EFIN KCRM MW SUBJECT: THE TWO MONTENEGROS PODGORICA 00000159 001.2 OF 004 ¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: The 11 municipalities that make up "northern Montenegro" account for half of the country's territory and the majority of its natural resources. However, they lag significantly behind the coast and center of the country in every leading economic indicator. The disparity between "north" and "south" has potential consequences for social and political stability, particularly as a majority of the north's 220,000 ethically diverse inhabitants voted against Montenegrin independence in 2006 and have continued to support pro-Serb opposition parties. The GoM and international donors have belatedly recognized the need to improve conditions in the north. We have launched a USD 10 million USAID program targeted at stimulating private sector development in the North to help strengthen stability in this sensitive region. END SUMMARY. Northern Montenegro: Plenty of Potential... -------------- ¶2. (U) The 11 municipalities (Andrijevica, Berane, Bijelo Polje, Kolasin, Mojkovac, Plav, Pljevlja, Pluzine, Rozaje, Savnik, and Zabljak) that comprise "northern Montenegro" account for over half the country's territory and roughly one-third of its population. Bordering on Bosnia and Hercegovina, Serbia, Kosovo, and Albania, they possess over two-thirds of Montenegro's arable land, timber, lead, coal, and zinc reserves, and hydro potential. The region also boasts spectacular landscapes, cultural heritage sites, and excellent locations for eco and adventure tourism. Before the breakup of the FRY, several districts attracted visitors from around the region - notably the mountain resorts of Kolasin and Zabljak, along with the lake town of Plav. They are now a shadow of what they used to be. In addition, the north has considerable potential for niche agriculture production; for example, its natural (organic, with the right certification) fruits, vegetables, and medicinal herbs and teas, if packaged and marketed properly, could be exported or sold to tourists eager for an "authentic" Montenegrin experience. ...But Investment Goes South -------------- ¶3. (U) However, northern Montenegro, already historically poorer than other parts of the country, has stagnated economically in recent years, while the coast and Podgorica have enjoyed a largely tourism-driven investment boom. The contrasts are stark. For example, the north received only seven percent of the country's foreign direct investment in 2008, the region's officially reported unemployment rate of 15.3 percent was significantly higher than that of the center (9.4 percent) and coast (8.6 percent),and the north's poverty rate (14.9 percent) also dwarfed that of the center and coast (6.5 and 6.8 percent respectively). A just-released UNDP report said the unemployment rate in the north is 17.8 percent, versus 2.2 percent on the coast. ¶4. (U) The northern municipalities also have the least developed infrastructure and lag behind the rest of Montenegro in both financial and human capital. A recent GoM survey found that only 45 percent of northern residents know how to use a computer, compared to about two-thirds of residents of the center and coast. In addition, only 57 percent of northerners live in areas with internet access (and only 25 percent reported use of the internet),as opposed to 73 percent in central municipalities and 85 percent along the coast. Development is constrained by the region's geographic isolation from markets and by a broad lack of understanding of market opportunities. A Litany of Complaints -------------- PODGORICA 00000159 002.2 OF 004 ¶5. (SBU) Whether in Plav, Pluzine, or Pljevlja, we invariably hear the same litany of complaints during our trips to the north: -- Infrastructure: Residents cite infrastructure improvements -from roads to public transport to schools to medical services - as essential for northern development. Improved roads top everyone's lists, but we also hear how the lack of waste and waste-water plants means that waste sometimes is dumped directly into the region's pristine lakes and rivers. -- Investment: Our interlocutors frequently complain that the coast and capital get the lion's share of the Montenegro's investment. For example, the 2008 budget for coastal tourism hub of Budva (population 15,000) was 46.5 million euros, while the budget for all 11 northern municipalities combined (with 222,000 inhabitants) was only 54.7 million euros. As the Mayor of Mojkovac told us, funds for individual municipal budgets (and by extension for coastal investments) came from the national budget, meaning, he said, that the north was "severely neglected." -- Job Loss: Factory closures following the breakup of the FRY hit the north especially hard, and have contributed greatly to the lack of employment options in the region and consequent outflow of young adults to the south and overseas. Remaining residents have turned to small-scale and subsistence agriculture, some small timber production, and small tourist ventures. -- Emigration: While the GoM has no firm statistics, GoM and local contacts tell us that there has been significant emigration to Podgorica, the coast, Serbia, Western Europe, and the U.S. Older citizens in particular point out that the bustling towns of their youth are today shells of their former selves. Emigration has depopulated the region of many of its brightest and most energetic residents. Potential Spillover Effects -------------- ¶6. (SBU) The north-south developmental gap also has potential ramifications beyond economics: -- Rule of Law: Our interlocutors contend that high unemployment and economic deprivation has led some locals to engage in illicit activities. The north's geography and topography - coupled with undermanned, under equipped, and under funded law enforcement authorities - make it an ideal venue for smuggling, particularly of narcotics. For example, police sources tell us that Rozaje and Plav are prime transit points for narcotics and other contraband moving from Kosovo and Albania along a "northern Montenegrin corridor" into Bosnia and on to Western Europe. Montenegro's media contain a steady stream of reports on drug-related seizures and arrests in Rozaje Municipality (no doubt dwarfed by the volume of smuggling which is not interdicted). -- Ethnic Tension: In addition, the ethnic mix in the north poses potential challenges. According to the 2003 census, Serbs make up 37 percent of the north's residents, followed by Bosniaks/Muslims 35 percent, and Montenegrins (20). While Albanians comprise less than two percent of northerners, they account for 26 percent of residents in Plav, nestled between Kosovo and Albania. By contrast, Serbs comprise 27 percent of the population of Montenegro's ten remaining municipalities, PODGORICA 00000159 003.2 OF 004 while Bosniaks make up less than one percent and Muslims only two percent of those municipalities. (In the country as a whole, Montenegrins comprise 43 percent of the population, followed by Serbs (31),Bosniaks (8),Muslims (5),Albanians (5),and Croats (1).) -- Montenegro has arguably done the best job in the region of managing inter-ethnic relations, and there are at present few signs of ethnic strife - in fact, residents of mixed towns like Bijelo Polje proudly cite their municipalities' long tradition of tolerance. Nevertheless, opinion polls consistently show Serbs - the majority of whom reside in the north -- to be strongly negative toward the current DPS-led government. Ties to Serbia also are reinforced by the fact that the GoS grants Montenegrins Serbian citizenship upon request, and many Montenegrins, especially from the north, work and study in Serbia. (Note: It is important to understand that the ethnic identity of many Orthodox Montenegrin citizens is fungible. An Orthodox Slav who supports Montenegrin statehood might identify himself as a "Montenegrin," while his brother, who opposed statehood, could call himself a Serb; "Montenegrin" and "Serb" are as much political identities as they are ethnic identities.) -- Serb-majority towns Andrijevica (72 percent against), Pljevlja (64),Pluzine (76),and Zabljak (61) opposed independence, as did other northern towns of Berane (53),Savnik (57),Kolasin (58),and Mojkovac (56). Among the 11 northern municipalities, only Bosniak/Muslim-majority Rozaje (91 percent in favor) and Plav (79 percent),and Bijelo Polje, where Bosniaks/Muslims and Montenegrins form a combined majority, supported Montenegrin statehood. -- Serbs, particularly in the north (and in Serb-majority Herceg Novi, on the coast) also have continued to vote for "Serb" opposition candidates and parties. In the April 2008 presidential elections, President Vujanovic turned in his worst totals (with the exception of coastal, Serb-majority Herceg Novi) in Andrijevica, Kolasin, Mojkovac, Pluzine, Pljevlja, and Zabljak. Opposition candidates Andrija Mandic (Montenegro's leading Serb nationalist, now with New Serbian Democracy - NOVA) and Srdjan Milic (who heads the civic, but heavily Serb, Socialist People's Party - SNP) did well in the north (while Mandic matched his overall national total of 19.5 percent, Milic got 14.3 percent versus 11.9 nationwide). Their parties did better than average in the region during the March 2009 parliamentary elections (SNP received 19.7 percent of the vote in the 11 northern municipalities, versus 16.5 percent nationwide, and NOVA received 10.1 percent in the north versus 9.1 nationwide). --While both Mandic and Milic opposed independence, it is important to note that both (and particularly Milic) accept Montenegrin statehood. In addition, this year's parliamentary election represented a step in the direction of moderation as Milic's more centrist party made gains, and Mandic's split with more radical elements (two small radical Serb splinter parties got only about 1,500 votes in northern municipalities.) That said, Mandic's party in particular still contains many strong advocates of reunification with Serbia, and as late as October 2007 (after the passage of Montenegro's Constitution),Mandic himself called on his supporters to boycott state institutions and reject state symbols. And this April, both parties boycotted the playing of the national hymn at the opening session of the new Parliament. -- Although Serbs are by far the largest source of antipathy towards the current government, Montenegro reportedly has a few hundred "Wahabbis," concentrated in Rozaje and Plav. (More on the Wahabbi issue to be reported septel). In the 1990s, a handful of Montenegrin Muslims flirted with the notion of autonomy for Montenegro/Serbia's Muslim Sandzak region. Thus far, neither of these currents has been a major factor on the national political scene. PODGORICA 00000159 004.2 OF 004 GoM Taking Notice (Finally) -------------- ¶7. (SBU) Until recently, almost all GoM-funded northern development projects in the north were small. But the GoM has belatedly recognized the importance of improving economic conditions in the north, and officials have told us they intend to focus increasingly on the neglected northern municipalities. In fact, the GoM's flagship infrastructure project - the highway from Bar to the Serbian border - is often cited as a cure-all for the north's ills. However, the project will take more than five years to complete once construction begins. On the other hand, another road from Risan on Kotor Bay to Zabljak is now partially complete and should be finished entirely by the end of 2009/early 2010. It will link coastal transit areas with UNESCO heritage site Durmitor National Park, which straddles Pluzine and Zabljak municipalities. ¶8. (SBU) In September 2008, the GoM launched the "Posao za Vas" ("A Job for You") initiative to promote employment and entrepreneurship by providing concessionary credits to small northern businesses. PM Djukanovic recently announced that the program will be expanded with 18.15 million euros allocated for ¶2009. To date, the GoM has received about 500 applications, which could create roughly 2,000 new workplaces. However, opposition parties and some local representatives charge that only "selected" candidates with demonstrated allegiance to the ruling coalition have received benefits under this program. ¶9. (U) The GoM also reportedly plans to launch two other significant projects in the north: the development of a comprehensive tourism plan for the Bjelasica and Komovi mountain region, and a tender for the construction of four large hydro plants on the Moraca River. Tenders for a number of smaller hydro projects also have been initiated. In September 2008, the GoM also launched a 4.5 million euro initiative to develop the Bukovica region in the far north, which saw incidents of "ethnic cleansing" of Bosniaks and Muslims in 1992. The funds will go toward developing roads and housing to facilitate refugee returns. Comment -------------- ¶10. (SBU) Bridging the north-south develop gap and creating more balanced prosperity throughout the country is a key mission priority. In fact, our largest assistance program in Montenegro, "Stimulating Economic Development of the North" (STARS),targets entrepreneurs, especially in the agriculture and tourism sectors. It also aims to strengthen links between northern businesses and markets in the rest of Montenegro, as well as neighboring countries. Also, we believe that our own attention to the region will serve as a catalyst for greater involvement by the GoM and international donors, as well as foreign investors, bolstering long term stability in the entire area. MOORE