DRAGON ASIA SUMMIT ENCOURAGES SCIENTIFIC COLLABORATION AND

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 PHNOM PENH 000474 SENSITIVE SIPDIS STATE FOR EAP/MLS AND OES COMMERCE FOR NOAA INTERIOR FOR USGS USDA FOR FAS STATE PLEASE PASS TO EPA BANGKOK FOR REO/HHOWARD BANGKOK FOR USAID/RDMA E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: SENV EAGR ENRG EAID EIND CB SUBJECT: DRAGON ASIA SUMMIT ENCOURAGES SCIENTIFIC COLLABORATION AND DIALOGUE PHNOM PENH 00000474 001.2 OF 003 SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED REF: A) 08 HANOI 1370, B) 08 PHNOM PENH 1003 ¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY AND COMMENT. More than 130 scientists, educators, activists, and policymakers from the U.S. and around Southeast Asia discussed river basin management and climate change at the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) sponsored Delta Research and Global Observation Network (DRAGON) Asia Summit June 22-25 in Siem Reap. In addition to connecting scientists working on ecologically similar river and lake systems, the Summit attempted to bridge the gap between scientific research and policy development. The Summit also provided a forum through which participants could openly debate contentious issues such as regional hydropower development. The Summit recommendations building formal partnerships between the Mekong and Mississippi River Commissions and working with member country governments to secure studies on the forecasted impacts of climate change to the Mekong basin as a whole. Regional coordination and partnerships can help the Mekong countries tackle common challenges from climate change and unchecked riparian development. However, Post recommends that the USG build any new regional partnerships by securing the buy-in and support of the individual Mekong governments. Otherwise, a new regional partnership may face the same issue as the Mekong River Commission, being ignored in trans-boundary riparian management decisions. END SUMMARY AND COMMENT. BRINGING SCIENTISTS AND POLICYMAKERS TOGETHER -------------- ¶2. (U) More than 130 scientists, educators, activists, and policymakers from the U.S. and around Southeast Asia discussed river bain management and climate change at the USGS-sponsored DRAGON Asia Summit June 22-25 in Siem Reap, the theme of which was "Connecting Great Deltas, Great Lakes, and Great Rivers". Launched following USGS' studies on the impacts of Hurricane Katrina on the Mississippi River delta system, the DRAGON Partnership seeks to foster collaboration between stakeholders researching and managing large delta systems around the world, such as the Mekong, to increase understanding of the common potential effects of factors such as weather events, climate change, engineering projects, land use, and other variables on major rivers. USGS and the Government of Vietnam (GOV) established a DRAGON Mekong Institute at Can Tho University in Vietnam in November 2008 (Ref A) to formalize the Partnership in Asia, and to cooperate on training and research to promote healthy ecosystems and sustainable deltas. ¶3. (U) Ambassador Rodley opened the DRAGON Asia Summit and highlighted the importance of connecting scientific research and collaboration to policy-making and education. During her presentation, the Ambassador unveiled a brief demonstration of "Forecast Cambodia", a smaller-scale version of the USGS tool "Forecast Mekong" that graphically displayed the current interactions of the Mekong and Tonle Sap rivers and showed how modeling tools could help policymakers analyze the effects of climate change on those systems. Senior Royal Government of Cambodia (RGC) officials were highly interested in the themes of the Summit; the Ministers of Environment and Education and the Chairman of the Tonle Sap Authority attended the opening day activities and delivered remarks. Ambassador Michalak from the U.S. Embassy in Hanoi spoke on the Mekong Delta perspective and the importance of the DRAGON Mekong Institute. HYDROPOWER SPARKS DEBATE AMONG PARTICIPANTS -------------- ¶4. (SBU) The DRAGON Summit attracted two prominent Chinese scientists from Yunan University who presented on the effects of existing Chinese mainstream Mekong Dams. The Chinese presenters argued that two existing Mekong dams in China have not resulted in significant changes in water flow to the lower Mekong countries. Other session participants argued that the possible truth of that PHNOM PENH 00000474 002.2 OF 003 assertion ignores the likely much greater effect of the additional eight Chinese dams that are planned for the upper Mekong. (NOTE: Researchers calculate that each Mekong basin country contributes to the average river flow as follows: China, 16%; Burma, 2%; Lao PDR, 35%; Thailand, 17%; Cambodia, 19%; and Vietnam, 11%. A 2004 report on the Mekong's hydrology noted that although only about a fifth of the river's annual flow comes from china, the proportion normally reaches between 50 and 70% in the dry season. END NOTE.) ¶5. (SBU) COMMENT: The Mekong River Commission, consisting of representatives from Cambodia, Laos, Thailand and Vietnam, has been trying to engage China in research and policy discussion regarding the effects of Chinese Mekong dams and water delivery to the four lower Mekong countries. The Mekong River Commission and the International Centre for Environmental Management are currently preparing a social and environmental impact assessment of the 11 planned main-stem Mekong dams in Cambodia, Laos, Thailand and Vietnam. The study will reportedly not include the Chinese dams. USGS and DRAGON counted a great coup in bringing Chinese scientists to the table to participate in the network. USGS and ESTHoffs plan to continue networking with Chinese scientists. END COMMENT. GREAT LAKES FOCUS -------------- ¶6. (U) The DRAGON Asia Summit expanded the Partnership's focus to include development considerations and trans-boundary management of large lake systems. The twin foci of the Summit were the Great Lakes of North America and Cambodia's Tonle Sap Lake, which feeds into the Mekong in the dry season and draws from the Mekong in the rainy season. A representative of central Africa's Lake Victoria Basin Commission added perspective on trans-boundary lake management as well. Although not straddling a border, the Tonle Sap relies on the trans-boundary Mekong flows and has an enormous importance for spawning about 60 percent of the total inland fisheries in Cambodia. These fisheries provide livelihoods for millions of Cambodians alone and nearly 80% of the animal protein in the Cambodian diet. The Tonle Sap Lake also serves a trans-boundary role in the dry season, draining through the Tonle Sap River into the Mekong, maintaining reliable water levels for irrigation in Vietnam and preventing saltwater intrusion into the Mekong Delta. SUMMIT OUTPUT AND RECOMMENDATIONS -------------- ¶7. (U) The Summit participants identified several recommendations for follow-up through DRAGON, including: 1) forming a twinning partnership between the Mekong and Mississippi River Commissions; 2) building cooperation between the Great Lakes Fishery Commission and the Tonle Sap Authority in a "sister lakes" relationship; and 3) supporting the Mekong governments to petition the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to conduct a comprehensive study of the predicted impacts of climate change on the Mekong region. ¶8. (U) Upcoming DRAGON projects include developing modeling systems with demonstration DVDs for the Lao and Thai portions of the greater Mekong basin. State and USGS plan to unveil the modeling tool for the Mekong River in general, "Forecast Mekong," at the Secretary's July 22/23 meeting with the Foreign Ministers of Cambodia, Laos, Vietnam, and Thailand as an example of how the U.S. can engage productively with the lower Mekong nations to further environmental and economic development goals. A formal proposal for a "sister lakes" relationship between the Great Lakes and Tonle Sap commissions may also be ready in time for the ministerial. ¶9. (U) Points of contact: For the DRAGON network, including planned networks of other large river and lake systems around the world: Greg Smith, USGS, smithg@usgs.gov. For the DRAGON Mekong Institute, Greg Smith, USGS, or State Regional ESTH Hub officer Hal Howard, howardhh@state.gov. All DRAGON scientific papers, as well as Forecast Mekong, Forecast Cambodia and modeling software for analyzing the Mekong and Mississippi rivers, will be available on PHNOM PENH 00000474 003.2 OF 003 the DRAGON website: http://deltas.usgs.gov. COMMENT -------------- ¶10. (SBU) The DRAGON Asia Summit was well received by local and regional counterparts and forms a solid foundation for future scientific collaboration between the U.S. and countries in the Mekong Basin. Coordinating this collaboration at the regional level will undoubtedly help the Mekong countries tackle the common impacts they will face from climate change and unchecked basin development. USGS's DRAGON represents a USG effort to help by aligning science and scientists worldwide to inform policy decisions. However, Post recommends that the USG consider approaching regional partnership with the Mekong countries from the bottom-up, securing buy-in and support from the individual governments involved, rather than top-down through a regional body. ¶11. (SBU) For example, the Mekong River Commission (MRC) has been lauded as the first trans-border water structure to include a mechanism for collective management, which is important for a river that flows by or through six countries. However, the MRC has failed to exert a major influence on trans-boundary river management and has been criticized for not effectively engaging China. Although Cambodia is a member of the MRC, the RGC has traditionally dealt with trans-border riparian issues bilaterally with its neighbors, rather than through the Commission. Ensuring the RGC's active engagement in a regional partnership will require demonstrating how that partnership benefits Cambodia specifically, rather than the region at large. END COMMENT. RODLEY