ROYALIST PARTIES PLAN TO MERGE FOR 2013 NATIONAL ELECTION

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 PHNOM PENH 000327

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

STATE FOR EAP/MLS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PHUM KDEM CB
SUBJECT: ROYALIST PARTIES PLAN TO MERGE FOR 2013 NATIONAL ELECTION

REF: 08 PHNOM PENH 881


1. (U) National United Front for an Independent, Neutral, Peaceful,
and Cooperative Cambodia (FUNCINPEC) and Norodom Ranariddh Party
(NRP) officials announced May 15 that the two royalist parties had
set aside their differences and planned to formally merge under the
FUNCINPEC name and brand. FUNCINPEC Secretary General Nhek Bun
Chhay told the press that the creation of the new, single party
would wait until the run-up to the 2013 national election, so that
FUNCINPEC and NRP officials would avoid having to forfeit existing
government positions. He added that the parties would act as a
single unit but maintain their separate names until the merger.

COOPERATION IN LOCAL ELECTIONS A PRECURSOR TO MERGER
-------------- --------------


2. (SBU) FUNCINPEC and NRP officials had hinted for months that a
merger was in development, and the parties took a small step towards
reunification by cooperating in the May 17 provincial, district and
local elections. The parties submitted a joint list of candidates
in 14 provinces for the election, in which Cambodia's 11,353 commune
councilors voted for provincial, district and municipal councils.
Royalist candidates in each district ran under the banner of the
party that had the most commune councilors. FUNCINPEC's official in
charge of election affairs, Kem Kosal, told us in March that the
parties had had no issues coordinating on the candidate lists.
However, in spite of the public emphasis placed on the royalist
parties' cooperation, FUNCINPEC President Keo Puth Rasmey admitted
to the Ambassador in February that the local elections were not a
high priority for his party, as no one expected a drastic change in
any party's representation.


3. (SBU) Koul Panha, Executive Director of the Committee for Free
and Fair Elections in Cambodia (COMFREL),similarly told Poloff that
the royalist party alliance had made little difference in the May 17
election results, as the commune councilors had tended to vote along
party lines. However he speculated that a full merger could improve
the royalist parties' chances of picking up additional National
Assembly (NA) seats in the 2013 national elections. The parties'
challenges, he added, would be to put aside past disputes and figure
out how to blend their respective structures and institutions. He
observed that FUNCINPEC officials seemed to be more eager to merge
than NRP officials, who still distrusted FUNCINPEC's leadership,
specifically Secretary General Nhek Bun Chhay. Puthea Hang, the
Executive Director of the Neutral and Impartial Committee for Free
and Fair Elections in Cambodia (NICFEC),raised similar concerns
about the merger, saying that he feared the parties could end up
splitting again.

CPP, SRP UNIMPRESSED
--------------


4. (SBU) Cambodian People's Party (CPP) and Sam Rainsy Party (SRP)
officials have shown little reaction so far to the royalist party
merger announcement. CPP lawmaker Cheam Yeap told the press May 18
that his party was not concerned about the merger because the
strength of the royalist parties' support was known. SRP spokesman
Yim Sovann added that FUNCINPEC and the NRP had compromised their
credentials by aligning themselves with the ruling party, and
suggested that the Cambodian people would no longer trust the
royalist parties. (NOTE: FUNCINPEC still declares itself to be in
coalition with the CPP, and Nhek Bun Chhay is a Deputy Prime
Minister. However, FUNCINPEC Deputy President Prince Sisowath
Sirirath admitted to Poloff in January that since the 2008 national
elections there is no longer a Memorandum of Understanding between
the two parties to formalize this coalition. END NOTE.)

SOME NRP MEMBERS ALSO UNIMPRESSED
--------------


5. (SBU) The proposed royalist merger has failed to inspire some of
the NRP's officials, as well. Internal NRP rifts that surfaced in
February reappeared on May 14, just prior to the provincial and
district elections, when NRP Spokesman Suth Dina called for NRP
commune councilors to vote for the CPP. Suth Dina praised the CPP
for improving the country's prosperity and criticized the NRP for
lacking a political structure and policies. (NOTE: NRP Secretary
General You Hockry has admitted these same faults about his party
privately to Poloff, but has never publicly acknowledged them. END
NOTE.) Suth Dina was temporarily expelled from the NRP in February
for allegedly trying to stage a takeover of the party with fellow
members of his political activist group, the Democratic Front of
Khmer Students and Intellectuals. NRP leadership made a show of
reconciliation with Suth Dina later that month, but he now appears
to have set himself up to defect to the CPP.

COMMENT
--------------


6. (SBU) FUNCINPEC and the NRP's latest move was long predicted by

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independent observers and represents the royalist movement's natural
last-ditch effort to maintain its political relevance. If the
parties can truly overcome their turbulent pasts, identify strong
and charismatic leaders, and outline a solid political platform,
they may be able to inspire enough support to pick up additional NA
seats in the 2013 national election. However, given royalist party
officials' outsized egos, coupled with their tendencies to reflect
on their glory days of yore rather than a clear message for the
future, a merger may be their last significant political act.



RODLEY