CLIMATE CHANGE RISING ON THE RGC'S RADAR

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 PHNOM PENH 000283 SENSITIVE SIPDIS STATE FOR EAP/MLS, OES AND S/P COMMERCE FOR NOAA USDA FOR FAS STATE PLEASE PASS TO EPA BANGKOK FOR REO/HHOWARD BANGKOK FOR USAID/RDMA E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: SENV EAGR ENRG EAID EIND CB SUBJECT: CLIMATE CHANGE RISING ON THE RGC'S RADAR REF: A) PHNOM PENH 202, B) 08 PHNOM PENH 1003 SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED ¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY. Climate change is a relatively new issue in Cambodia, but it is increasingly gaining the attention and concern of the Royal Government of Cambodia (RGC). As a Least Developed Country (LDC),Cambodia stands to lose much if the predicted effects of climate change come true. The country's high dependence on agriculture and fisheries, poor health sector infrastructure, and limited ability to monitor changing weather patterns highlight the country's vulnerability to the potential impacts of climate change. The RGC has developed a National Action Program for Adaptation to Climate Change, but lacks funding for implementation. Greenhouse gas mitigation receives less attention, although the RGC has registered a few projects under the Clean Development Mechanism and is exploring potential Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation programs in cooperation with environmental NGOs. As in many sectors in Cambodia, funding, capacity, and a lack of inter-ministerial coordination are barriers to the RGC effectively dealing with the impacts of climate change. Continued investments in agriculture, health and education could help to mitigate some of these impacts. END SUMMARY. HIGH DEPENDENCE ON AGRICULTURE, FISHERIES -------------- ¶2. (U) Cambodia's agricultural sector accounts for approximately 30% of GDP and 58% of the labor force, but a much higher percentage - about 85% - of the rural population depends on farming to meet basic subsistence needs. In spite of the emphasis placed on agriculture in development planning and everyday life, growth of the agricultural sector continues to lag behind its potential and other key sectors driving economic growth. Limited investment in agricultural technology has meant that Cambodian crop yields have been traditionally lower than they could be, and they are vulnerable to changing weather patterns. A January 2009 report by Singaporean think tank Economy and Environment Program for Southeast Asia (EEPSEA) mapped the region's climate vulnerability and found that parts of Cambodia, such Mondulkiri province, were among the most vulnerable to the potential effects of climate change, due to the country's low adaptive capacity. For example, rural farmers' dependence on natural flooding patterns could lead to reduced crop yields when droughts or excessive flooding occur. ¶3. (U) Cambodia's highly productive inland fisheries also account for a significant food source. According to reports by the World Fish Center and the Mekong River Commission, the inland fish production of Cambodia alone is higher than that of North America. These fisheries supply 80% of the animal protein in the diet of the Cambodian population and are estimated to be worth over $2 billion taken as a whole. A February 2009 study by World Fish Center found that less-developed, fishery-dependent countries such as Cambodia are among the most vulnerable to the effects of climate change. A World Wildlife Fund for Nature (WWF) assessment of the Mekong region's vulnerability to climate change found similar risks, cautioning that accelerated glacial melt, less predictable rainfall patterns, and changing water temperatures could have serious impacts on Cambodian fisheries. HEALTH CHALLENGES -------------- ¶4. (U) Climate change could also lead to increases in mosquito-borne diseases and illnesses caused by poor water sanitation, according to the Cambodian Ministry of Health (MOH). Malaria incidence has decreased since 1999, but Dr. Duong Socheat, Director of the Cambodian National Malaria Center, told Econoff that the number of dengue fever cases has been steadily increasing, with a spike in ¶2007. The MOH cautioned in a 2007 report that increased flooding and drought could also reduce availability of clean water, leading to a rise in bacterial infections. The report noted that health impacts of climate change would be more severe on Cambodia's majority poor and rural population, which has less access to public health facilities. WEATHER CHANGING, BUT HOW MUCH, AND WHAT'S TO BLAME? -------------- -------------- ¶5. (SBU) Seth Vannareth, Director of the Cambodian Department of Meteorology (DOM),told Econoff that the average high temperature in Cambodia had increased over the past 27 years, but she was hesitant PHNOM PENH 00000283 002 OF 004 to estimate a specific figure. She said that in the past 10 years, she had also observed more frequent and more severe periods of drought but admitted that weather patterns were becoming too unpredictable for her to guess if this trend would continue. She explained that it would be difficult to verify if these temperature and weather patterns could be attributed to climate change, because most of her data only went back as far as 1982. Pre-Khmer Rouge weather records for parts of the country exist, but only in hand-written notebooks. Seth Vannareth told Econoff that her office lacked the time and resources to transcribe these records into the DOM's computer systems. THE RGC'S CLIMATE CHANGE STRUCTURE -------------- ¶6. (U) The Ministry of Environment (MOE) has the lead on all climate change activities in Cambodia. The National Climate Change Committee (NCCC),established by sub-decree in April 2006, serves as the primary climate change policy body. Led by the Minister of Environment, the NCCC includes representatives from the MOE, Ministry of Water Resources and Meteorology (MOWRAM),Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF),and the Royal University of Phnom Penh. The MOE also oversees the Cambodian Climate Change Office (CCCO),which coordinates and implements national climate change policies, greenhouse gas mitigation and inventory initiatives, and climate change adaptation activities. CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION -------------- ¶7. (U) In 2006, the RGC approved the CCCO's National Adaptation Program of Action to Climate Change (NAPA),which was developed with support from the Global Environment Facility (GEF). The NAPA prioritizes climate change adaptation activities in key sectors, including agriculture, health, and water resources. It includes 39 proposed adaptation projects, which focus on measures that have direct impacts on the livelihoods of poorer Cambodians. These so-called "no-regret" projects would facilitate Cambodia's overall development, even if the effects of climate change did not manifest as predicted. The list of projects includes such activities as: 1) increasing the capacity of the Department of Meteorology to monitor and forecast changing climate patterns; 2) strengthening community disaster preparedness and response capacity; 3) developing and improving community irrigation systems; and 4) developing community rice banks. ¶8. (SBU) Tin Ponlok, head of the CCCO, estimated that all of the projects in Cambodia's NAPA would cost a combined $196,350,000. The program's 20 priority projects would total roughly $128,850,000. He said that the RGC's main barrier to implementing these initiatives was funding, and he criticized existing climate adaptation funds as being either too small or too burdened with complex rules for eligibility and financing (Ref A). In addition to financing its existing proposals, the RGC may find that its current NAPA is not enough, according to a 2007/2008 United Nations Development Program (UNDP) Human Development Report on climate change. The study cautioned that many Least Developed Country (LDC) NAPAs' financial provisions may be unrealistically low given the potential climate change impacts that LDCs face. The report specifically cited Cambodia's $128 million estimate as being too low. ¶9. (SBU) On March 23, the World Bank announced that donors would provide $50 million for a climate change adaptation project in Cambodia under its Pilot Program for Climate Resilience (PPCR). Cambodia is one of several developing countries to receive funding from the PPCR, which falls under the World Bank's Strategic Climate Fund. (NOTE: The UK is the primary donor for the Cambodian portion of the PPCR. The USG has pledged funding to the World Bank's other climate investment fund, the Clean Technology Fund. END NOTE.) A World Bank representative told Econoff that the exact scope and details of the program had not yet been developed with the RGC. The Ministry of Economy and Finance, which accepted the program on behalf of the RGC, has the lead on developing the framework of the program. GREENHOUSE GAS MITIGATION -------------- ¶10. (SBU) The RGC's climate change efforts are primarily focused on adaptation rather than mitigation, as greenhouse gas emissions in Cambodia are traditionally much lower than those of more developed nations. For example, the 2007/2008 UNDP Human Development Report PHNOM PENH 00000283 003 OF 004 calculated that an average air-conditioning unit in Florida emits more carbon dioxide in a year than a person in Cambodia during their lifetime. Cambodia is currently one of seven Southeast Asian countries participating in a UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) project to build developing country capacity to inventory their greenhouse gas emissions. The project receives support from the U.S., through the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and State Department, and from Japan. The UNFCCC is using USG funds to support project management, such as the regional coordinator's time, costs for regional and national meetings, and travel of participants. The EPA is also funding and managing development of an Agriculture and Land-Use Change Greenhouse Gas Inventory Compilation software tool in cooperation with Colorado State University. ¶11. (SBU) The RGC's limited greenhouse gas mitigation efforts are focused on initiatives that could qualify for funding under the UNFCCC's Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) framework. Tin Ponlok told Econoff that the areas with the largest CDM potential in Cambodia are renewable energy, energy efficiency, and waste management. There are currently five RGC-approved CDM projects in Cambodia; most are small, with the exception of the 193 MW capacity Kamchay hydropower dam in Kampot Province (Ref B),which is currently under construction. Other operational initiatives include a bio-gas project using rice husks and a project generating power from methane collected from pig farms. ¶12. (SBU) There are several potential REDD (Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation) projects being developed, led primarily by NGOs in cooperation with the Forestry Administration (FA). Community Forestry International (CFI),recently absorbed by international NGO PACT, has made the most progress with a potential REDD project in Oddar Meanchey province, in partnership with the FA and U.S. firm Terra Global Capital. CFI estimated that the 60,477 hectare project could sequester about 8.7 million metric tons of carbon dioxide over 30 years, which the NGO estimates could be worth up to $30 million on the carbon credit markets. Wildlife Alliance and Wildlife Conservation Society are also developing potential REDD projects in Koh Kong and Mondulkiri Provinces, respectively. COORDINATION, CAPACITY ARE CHALLENGES -------------- ¶13. (SBU) Although the MOE nominally has the lead on climate change activities, these activities are spread among several ministries and are rarely coordinated. Tin Ponlok lamented that the RGC's inter-ministerial committee on climate change had not met since prior to the July 2008 elections. Seth Vannareth, Director of the Department of Meteorology (DOM),explained that she conducted her climate change research in her spare time, and that she did not yet have a mandate or funding to formally assess climate change patterns in Cambodia. The CCCO's climate change studies and projections were conducted by the MOE without the cooperation of the DOM. When asked if she worked with the MOE, Seth Vannareth confessed that she had not yet met Tin Ponlok, although she had given presentations on climate change in Cambodia at various meteorology conferences in the region. Keo Omaliss, Deputy Director of the FA's Wildlife Protection Office and the Cambodian lead on REDD programs, told Econoff that he also had little interaction with the MOE. He knew which other ministries were engaged in climate-related activities, but he did not know who his exact counterparts were. ¶14. (SBU) Tin Ponlok, Seth Vannareth, and Keo Omaliss all noted that there is a strong need for climate change education and scientific capacity building in Cambodia. Tin Ponlok noted that climate change research currently has to be conducted with donor resources and foreign-educated technical experts, as Cambodian institutions are unable to provide training on climate change issues. Seth Vannareth emphasized that solid baseline data was needed for future research. Ouk Navann, Deputy Director of the MOE's Department of Environmental Education and Communication, felt that an education campaign was needed to inform both the RGC and the general public of the potential impacts of climate change. Most RGC officials view climate change as a strictly environmental issue, Tin Ponlok explained. He said that the RGC has not yet recognized that climate change is an economic, social and development issue as well. COMMENT -------------- ¶15. (SBU) In international climate change negotiations, LDCs like Cambodia can sometimes be drowned out by their more vocal developing PHNOM PENH 00000283 004 OF 004 country counterparts, such as China and India. But it is the countries like Cambodia that are most at risk of becoming unstable if climate change were to impact their basic needs, such as potential food security effects. Although the USG's traditional focus on clean energy technology can be helpful, some of the most effective ways to minimize the impacts of climate change in places like Cambodia are to support improvements in the technical and adaptive capacity of the agriculture and fisheries sectors, continue to support improvements in Cambodia's health infrastructure, and provide more opportunities for scientific and technical exchanges. ALLEGRA