MALAKAND DIVISION: FIGHTING IN SWAT BUT "NO OPERATION" YET

C O N F I D E N T I A L PESHAWAR 000097 E.O. 12958: DECL: 5/7/2019 TAGS: MOPS PREF PTER PGOV EAID PK SUBJECT: MALAKAND DIVISION: FIGHTING IN SWAT BUT "NO OPERATION" YET CLASSIFIED BY: Lynne Tracy, Principal Officer, U.S. Consulate Peshawar, Department of State. REASON: 1.4 (d) Summary -------------- ¶1. (C) During May 4-6, militants in Swat acting on the previously announced withdrawal (Ref A) from the Swat peace accord, attacked security forces throughout Swat and seized government buildings before apparently being evicted from at least some of these by security forces. Despite this action, the expected Pakistani military operation to clear Swat of militants, while imminent, has apparently not yet begun. Northwest Frontier Province officials are bracing for a "major wave" of displaced Swat residents to begin arriving in the Swat valley o/a May 8. In Buner, lashkars appear to be standing up again, but Frontier Corps and the regular army are still doing the heavy lifting in unsecured areas of northern and northwestern Buner. In Lower Dir, fighting continued. Frontier Corps contacts told post that Sufi Mohammed's son had been "with the militants" and killed during an operation. In Upper Dir, a local jirga asked security forces' forbearance for ongoing efforts to peacefully expel militants from the area. End Summary. SWAT: BOMBARDMENT BUT "NO OPERATION" -------------- ¶2. (C) Pakistani media report and Consulate contacts confirm fighting between Pakistani security forces and taliban elements after the May 5 taliban takeover of government buildings in Saidu Sharif, the district headquarters, and nearby Mingora, Swat's largest city. The Pakistani military announced on the evening of May 6 that security forces had re-taken several emerald mines seized by the taliban and "all" of the "important" overrun government buildings in Swat. However, a government spokesman announced that the imperative to avoid collateral damage and the high level of militant fortification in many of the government buildings meant that many government buildings would not be re-taken for some time; a consulate contact confirms that many government building and other critical points remain occupied by militants. ¶3. (SBU) Aside from this action, units of the Pakistani regular army and Frontier Corps stationed in Swat appear to have engaged militants primarily defensively but not taking major offensive action on the ground. Reports of overall deaths in the Swat fighting to date vary from 83 to 102 as of the morning of May 7; all accounts show more militant deaths than the combined total deaths for security forces and civilians. ¶4. (C) The district government continues to maintain the nominal curfew that it began May 5, but enforcement has been sporadic at best and has primarily included the accidental deaths of several Swati university students who had inadvertently violated the curfew in the evening of May 6. According to Consulate contacts in the district, it has also jammed all cellular telephones in the Mingora area. While the district government has advised residents of the area surrounding Mingora to leave in advance of action by the Pakistani military, the Pakistani military itself (on May 5) and NWFP Information Minister Mian Iftikhar Hussain (on the evening of May 6) both have announced to the press that the anticipated military operation to clear militants from Swat has not yet begun. According to Special Operations Command-Forward (SOC-FWD),offensive operations are imminent; however, forces currently in Swat consist only of the 11th Corps' 23rd Division and two wings (battalion equivalents) of FC. IDPs -------------- ¶5. (SBU) In a May 7 meeting, NWFP Chief Secretary Javed Iqbal told Embassy and Consulate representatives that the provincial government is bracing for a "major wave" of IDPs to begin arriving in the Peshawar valley o/a May 8. Outflows have been slowed by the local curfew, road blocks, and the fire fights between security forces and militants in Mingora and Saidu Sharif. The provincial government is expanding the number of registration sites and camps in Mardan and Swabi. Most families are still choosing to stay outside of the camps. The provincial government's immediate key concern is food. Local officials understand that World Food Program (WFP) has supplies on hand to feed 600,000. Iqbal noted, however, that these WFP resources are committed to an existing IDP population (Bajaur and Mohmand) of nearly 500,000. The Swat wave could double that requirement. IDP numbers from Buner appear to be easing but that could change since a substantial militant presence remains in the northern part of the district. (Note: We are reaching out to WFP to ascertain what is in the WFP pipeline.) CONTINUED FIGHTING IN BUNER; ARMY CLAIMS CLEARANCE OF PIR BABA -------------- -------------- ¶6. (SBU) Press reports indicate that on May 6-7 the FC and regular army used artillery and tanks against militants in the Pir Baba areas of northern Buner. According to a Consulate contact in Daggar (Buner's headquarters),lashkars do appear to be re-forming in Buner; militants left a beheaded body of a lashkar leader in Elai village, west of Daggar. A curfew continued throughout most of the district. Militants reportedly remain in control of Kallel Pass and Karakar, routes linking Swat and Buner. CONTINUED LAWLESSNESS IN LOWER DIR; SUFI MOHAMMED'S SON DEAD? -------------- -------------- ¶7. (SBU) Frontier Corps contacts told post that Sufi Mohammad's oldest son, Kifayat Ullah, was killed by government shelling in the Maidan area on the evening of May 6. A 30-member peace jirga expressed its intent to meet with Sufi Mohammad but could not reach Lower Dir district headquarters Timergara because of the government-imposed curfew there. Reports continue of widespread looting in the Timergara and Maidan areas; in Timergara, the administration of Malakand University ordered the school closed and for students to vacate the area due to security concerns. UPPER DIR: JIRGA ASKS FOR TIME TO EXPEL TALIBAN -------------- -- ¶8. (SBU) According to press reports, in the militant-occupied Doog Darra area of Upper Dir, a jirga of Sultankhel and Paindakhel tribal elders convoked May 6 by the district's top security officials refused to militarily confront taliban elements in the area, asking instead that they be given time to further pursue their ongoing efforts to persuade the militants to leave peacefully rather than taking military action. Consulate contacts tell us that Upper Dir has remained calmer than Lower Dir because the lashkars are more active, better-equipped, and better-organized. TRACY