FATA: BAJAUR CONDITIONS UPDATE

C O N F I D E N T I A L PESHAWAR 000073 E.O. 12958: DECL: 4/20/2019 TAGS: PREF PGOV PTER MOPS EAID PK SUBJECT: FATA: BAJAUR CONDITIONS UPDATE CLASSIFIED BY: Lynne Tracy, Principal Officer, U.S. Consulate Peshawar, Department of State. REASON: 1.4 (d) Summary -------------- ¶1. (C) Bajaur-based officials are reporting significant numbers of returnees within the past two months (approximately 211,000). While at odds with numbers reported by UN agencies, fraud (double dipping on benefits, people from areas other than Bajaur seeking benefits, etc.) may be contributing to an IDP registration count that is reportedly going up rather than down. The most significant damage in Bajaur appears to be concentrated in the Nawagai-Khar corridor, and operations continue in the Charmang valley northwest of Nawagai. Aside from these areas, Pakistani civilian and military officials are encouraging return and emphasizing the importance of focusing help to resettle those inside Bajaur. ¶2. (C) USAID has already provided $1.8 million that includes tents, non-food items, cash for work, and small infrastructure repair projects. Special Operations Command Central-Forward Pakistan (SOCFWD-PAK) has provided $247,000 for food and supplies for medical camps. We are directing our assistance to meet additional similar requests from the Bajaur political administration as well as repairing water and electrical infrastructure in key areas. Security is not perfect, but with substantial military operations largely concluded, there are real improvements over the pre-August 2008 environment in Bajaur that provide the government with opportunities to make further progress. End Summary. Visit to Bajaur -------------- ¶3. (C) Peshawar Principal Officer, USAID Director of FATA Programs, and Special Forces Commanding Officer (Peshawar) visited Bajaur on April 15. Bajaur Political Agent (PA) Shafirullah and Bajaur Scouts Commanding Officer (Acting) Colonel Cheema briefed Consulate officials on local conditions and assistance requirements. Security -------------- ¶4. (C) The FC Commander reported that operations are still taking place in the Charmang valley (northwest of Nawagai to the Afghan border). Although the Nawagai-Loyesam-Khar road has a strong FC presence, he noted that the corridor's proximity to the Charmang valley leaves it vulnerable to militant activity. Salarzai, Mahmoond, Utmankhel, Barang, and Khar city are relatively quiet and no substantial operations are planned for these areas. (Note: Separately, the FATA Secretariat Additional Chief Secretary told Consulate representatives that militants in Bajaur are starting to resurface in a few locations intent on targeting local elders. See paras 11-12.) Damage -------------- ¶5. (SBU) The PA categorized the Nawagai-Khar corridor as having sustained the greatest amount of damage -- nearly 3,000 houses destroyed. In Mahmoond tehsil, he said, approximately 1,000 houses had been destroyed. The PA estimated 10 family members per household. Other areas had suffered limited pockets of damage or none at all. Returnees -------------- ¶6. (SBU) According to the PA, approximately 211,000 Bajaur residents have returned while roughly 100,000 have yet to come back. Local officials have been registering returnees at two primary entry points: Munda (Bajaur-Dir) and Nawagai (Bajaur-Mohmand). In addition to names, returnees are being asked to provide their national identity card (NIC) numbers. Anecdotally, USAID contractor staff in Bajaur confirm that people are returning to the area. UNHCR reports that approximately 88,000 people are living in camps while another 464,000 are with family and friends and that overall numbers are going up. USG Assistance -------------- ¶7. (C) USAID activities in Bajaur currently total $1.8 million. Assistance includes relief for returnees: 2,000 tents; 620 house reconstruction kits; 1,500 non-food item relief kits (plastic mats, jerry cans, gas stoves, cloth, blankets, and cooking utensils); and an ongoing cash for work program (debris clean up and similar activities. SOCFWD-PAK's Civil-Military Support Element has provided $247,000 -- $220,000 for food (wheat, edible oil, sugar, and tea) and $27,000 in supplies for medical camps. Government Priorities -------------- ¶8. (U) Except for those from the Nawagai-Khar corridor and the Charmang valley, the PA is encouraging Bajaur residents to return and emphasized the importance of providing return relief inside Bajaur where it can be monitored. The PA has on hand 2,000 tents (provided by USAID) that he is reserving for those from the Nawagai-Khar area where the largest number of homes were destroyed. The PA asked for additional tents, dry rations, and non-food items such as cooking utensils and blankets. Consulate officials agreed to direct resources to meet these requests. ¶9. (U) For the Nawagai-Khar corridor, the PA also placed a premium on repairing water supply and electricity generation. The government has determined that there will be a setback of 250 meters for rebuilding along the road corridor to help maintain security. ¶10. (C) Frontier Corps General Tariq told PO on April 14 that he is watching his force levels in Bajaur to maintain sufficient numbers to "hold" the area. He is worried, however, that his forces will be ordered off to deal with instability in Swat and surrounding districts, particularly Dir which touches Bajaur and is an access route. The FC Commander is already providing one FC wing (approximately 650 soldiers) to help secure the road through Dir. Future Policy Toward IDPs -------------- ¶11. (SBU) At an April 16 civil-military coordination meeting in Peshawar attended by Pakistani and U.S representatives, FATA Secretariat Additional Chief Secretary Habibullah Khan said that the government will remain flexible on whether to continue to maintain IDP camps outside Bajaur until operations in the Charmang valley are completed. ¶12. (SBU) The primary assistance focus though, the ACS continued, should be on help for Bajaur returnees and improving conditions in the agency. These are the individuals who are stabilizing their communities. At some point, assistance to the camps, he said, will need to end to cut off those who are taking advantage of the system. "We must be managers not philanthropists." (Note: Northwest Frontier Province Governor Ghani told PO separately on April 13 that he planned to "wind up the camps" within the next couple of months.) ¶13. (C) Separately, DCM and others met with Rashid Khalikov, Director of OCHA, who is visiting Pakistan to assess UN operations and look for ways to improve their performance. Khalikov reminded us of the UN's insistence that returns be voluntary, in dignity, and with security, that IDPs should be well-informed, and that they should be able to go back to conditions commensurate with what they'd left behind. While there is no evidence that returns to Bajaur have been anything but voluntary, humanitarian workers in Pakistan have been highly critical of reports from Frontier Corps that the situation in Bajaur is generally secure. We will have to work through these inherent tensions as we deal with the reality on the ground that people are returning. Future Operations -------------- ¶14. (C) Frontier Corps briefed the April 16 civil-military gathering that the northwestern corner of Mohmand is still a trouble spot and that operations there would continue. The ACS told the group that operations were likely in lower Kurram (predominantly Sunni) and Orakzai agencies (timeline NFI). The Pakistani side did not expect large IDP numbers moving across the border into Afghanistan. The FATA Secretariat is coordinating with USAID on possible needs. Comment -------------- ¶15. (C) Initially, there were an overwhelming number of genuine IDPs, and conditions in some areas such the Nawagai-Khar corridor still make return difficult. IDP assistance, however, is vulnerable to double dipping and other types of fraud that may be contributing to inflated IDP registration numbers despite evidence that people are returning to Bajaur. Security is not perfect nor should we expect it to be. IDPs' concerns about security appear to be in large measure about future substantial military operations that might again result in aerial bombardment or destruction of homes, crops, and livestock. Compared to pre-August 2008, militant presence and activity has taken a real hit in Bajaur. Frontier Corps and other forces are needed to help hold territory but the return of Bajaur residents to stabilize communities is also critical. Pakistani civilian and military officials responsible for the tribal areas are united on the need to focus assistance inside Bajaur. TRACY