NWFP: LOCAL PERCEPTIONS OF THE SWAT DEAL

C O N F I D E N T I A L PESHAWAR 000033


E.O. 12958: DECL: 2/21/2019
TAGS: PGOV PTER MOPS EAID PK
SUBJECT: NWFP: LOCAL PERCEPTIONS OF THE SWAT DEAL

CLASSIFIED BY: Lynne Tracy, Principal Officer, U.S. Consulate
Peshawar, Department of State.
REASON: 1.4 (d)


Summary
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1. (C) According to Swat-based contacts, the ceasefire and the
agreement to implement Shari'a law are welcomed by most
residents but not expected to last. The ARMY caused a great
deal of damage, failed to take advantage of the intelligence
provided by the local population who they did not trust and
allowed the militants to go largely unpunished. Police are
needed to maintain law and order. The militants are likely to
use the ceasefire to rearm and regroup. Even with the
expectation of an eventual breakdown in the ceasefire, Swat's
level of violence had reached such a degree that respite even at
the price of a tacit admission of government weakness appears to
have been acceptable to the local population. End Summary.

Local Views on the Swat Deal
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2. (C) Post spoke individually to a range of primarily Swat
citizen contacts on February 18 and 19 for their views on the
Swat ceasefire and plan to implement Shari'a law. The group
included a doctor, a lawyer, several local NGO workers, a
founder of a peace organization, two recently internally
displaced persons (IDP),and an expatriate aid worker focused on
Swat for the last 10 years.

Peace and Quick Justice At Any Price?
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3. (C) All except one were happy that a ceasefire was in place.
Several said that the fighting had been so destructive that
peace regardless of the conditions under which it was agreed to,
was preferable to the fighting. Several stated that the opening
of the markets was a welcomed event due to the hardships that
many were facing. All except one believed that Shari'a law
would bring much needed quick justice although how that would
occur was not generally known. The lawyer maintained that
Shari'a law was already being practiced through out Swat.

What About The Army?
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4. (C) According to the majority of those interviewed, the ARMY
caused a great deal of damage, failed to take advantage of the
intelligence provided by the local population, and allowed the
militants to go largely unpunished. Large numbers of police,
who would know the local population, were needed if law and
order were to be restored. Two of those interviewed said prior
to the latest fighting they had viewed government security check
posts in full view of militant check posts operating
simultaneously.

Skeptical Of The Ceasefire
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5. (C) Some said that a few of the militants who committed the
most gruesome of murders were now being hailed as heroes and
that contributed to their skepticism of the ceasefire. Several
contacts commented that since neither side was fully committed
to a ceasefire and because the last agreement failed, the latest
deal was not likely to last. Most expected the militants to use
the ceasefire period to rearm and regroup either to renew
violence in Swat or move to another agency. A number of those
interviewed observed the public attitude was that the militants
had won the day by forcing this agreement.

Comment
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6. (C) The level of violence had reached such a degree in Swat
that respite even at the price of a tacit admission of
government weakness appears to have been acceptable to the local
population. There is widespread sentiment beyond our Swat
contacts, reflected in some conversations with government
officials as well as local press editorials that the ceasefire
is unlikely to hold long.

TRACY