FATA SECRETARY FOR LAW AND ORDER PROVIDES GRIM ASSESSMENT OF SITUATION IN THE NWFP AND FATA

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 PESHAWAR 000002



SIPDIS



E.O. 12958: DECL: 1/3/2019

TAGS: PTER, MOPS, ASEC, PGOV, PK

SUBJECT: FATA SECRETARY FOR LAW AND ORDER PROVIDES GRIM ASSESSMENT OF

SITUATION IN THE NWFP AND FATA



CLASSIFIED BY: Michael A. Via, Acting Principal Officer,

Peshawar, Department of State.

REASON: 1.4 (a),(b),(d)

Summary

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1. (C) Ghulam Qadir, Federally Administered Tribal Areas

(FATA) Secretary for Law and Order told Acting Principal Officer

(APO) that nearly all girls' schools in the FATA would be closed

by the January 15, 2009 deadline set by militants; since then,

the militants have relented marginally and allowed girls to

attend school up to grade four. Qadir, believes the GOP has

given up on Swat, Northwest Frontier Province (NWFP) for now.

The current Khyber operation was launched to counter local

militants who had set up operations near Peshawar as well as to

secure truck convoys.



2. (S) Qadir said he believes the GOP does not understand the

gravity of the situation in FATA. The predominantly Shi'a town

of Hangu may be attacked by Sunni militants during Muharam

celebrations. He believes that if the taliban began to control

the NWFP, they could not administer it and Qadir might need to

join their ranks just to survive. Qadir's assessment is less

hopeful than most of post's contacts but accurately reflects a

growing pessimism and frustration among some concerning the

future of the FATA and NWFP. End Summary.



3. (C) Ghulam Qadir, FATA Secretary for Law and Order

provided his assessment of the situation in the Northwest

Frontier Province (NWFP) and Federally Administered Tribal Areas

(FATA) to APO on December 30.



Closure Of Girls Schools?

--------------



4. (C) Qadir, said some girls schools will likely try to

remain technically open after the January 15 deadline set my

militants for their closure. However, the practical effect will

be that almost all government girls' schools and probably all

private girls' schools in the FATA will either close or have no

students attending them. He said this was because of the

widespread fear of the taliban and mentioned his son's schooling

situation as an example. He noted that his son's school in

Peshawar, Edwards College, recently was threatened by the

taliban. He immediately removed his son from the school until

the threat was "dealt with." He reasoned that nearly all

parents in the FATA will do the same based on the current threat

and deadline. (Note: Since this meeting, the local militants

have agreed to allow girls to attend school up to grade four.)



Troop Redeployments

--------------



5. (S) Qadir stated that the decision to pull troops out of Swat

was less about needed troops on the border with India as alleged

in the press and more about a decision by the GOP to "give up on

Swat for now." He asserted "we have given the taliban the north

of Swat, so why not give them the city of Mingora too." Qadir,

who has only anecdotal information about other troop pullouts

from FATA and the NWFP, opined that these would likely be "token

as a show of force for the India situation."



Khyber Operation - FATA A Priority?

--------------



6. (C) Qadir stated what other post contacts have told us,

namely the current operation in Khyber was about more than

simply insuring the safety of truck convoys between Peshawar and

Torkham. Local unnamed militants had set up kidnapping for

ransom operations near Peshawar to fund their operations. He

claimed funding operations through kidnapping had become a major

source of revenue for the taliban in FATA, where previously they

had relied more on "outside funding." He reasoned that this was

an indication that the militancy had become a true insurgency

that had wider implications for Pakistan outside the NWFP, but

the GOP in Islamabad did not appreciate the gravity of the

situation. He asserted that "FATA as a federal priority has

dropped of the list since the India situation has come to

light."



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North Waziristan Location Of Hostages?

--------------



7. (C) Qadir said the Polish mission had asked him to help in

the recovery of those taken hostage. He said he didn't make

much progress in his efforts but learned two things of note. He

believed that all signs point to the hostages being held in

North Waziristan. The kidnappers were not interested in a

ransom which leads him to conclude that they are being held as

human shields. He asserts that Baitullah Mehsud may be using

them in this manner to prevent alleged U.S. Predator strikes.



Predator Strikes

--------------



8. (S) Qadir said he wanted to say in an unofficial capacity

that he and many others could accept Predator strikes as they

were surgical and clearly hitting high value targets. He

mentioned that fear among the local populace in areas where the

strikes have been occurring was lessening because "everyone knew

that they only hit the house or location of very bad people."

He wondered why the strikes did not seem to target more of the

taliban which he reasoned was needed. He said "our house is on

fire and we need to take drastic actions."



In Camera Session And ISI

--------------



9. (S) Qadir confided that ISI, (Note: Pakistan's military

intelligence. End note),during the in camera session of the

parliament recently, had briefed lawmakers and senior GOP

officials concerning the virtues of some taliban elements versus

the "real militants." They reasoned small numbers from some of

the militant groups could be useful in future operations in

Kashmir or elsewhere. Qadir said although not everyone present

agreed with the assertion it was this line of reasoning that

contributed to his fear of the future.



The Future

--------------



10. (C) The future, according to Qadir, was likely to include an

attack by Sunni militants on the predominantly Shi'a town of

Hangu during the Muharam celebrations. (Note. After Kurram,

Orakzai Agency, where Hangu serves as the administrative

headquarters, has the second highest concentration of Shi'a in

the region, at almost 10 per cent. End note.)



11. (C) In six to twelve months, Qadir predicted, a lack of

focus from Islamabad could leave the taliban in control of both

FATA and NWFP. If that happened, the taliban would need help

administering the area. He said the prospect was causing him

and others to begin to figure out how to individually survive

the coming taliban. He said "for one I am thinking that the

taliban could capture the NWFP but they don't know how to

administer it so they might need administrators like me and I

might have to join the taliban at some point to just survive."



Comment

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12. (C) Qadir's concerns for the future are not widely expressed

by other post contacts, at least not in the dark terms he

describes, but accurately reflect a growing pessimism and

frustration concerning the future of the FATA and NWFP. Most

view the current deteriorating security situation as reversible;

for example, Qadir's subordinate, the Khyber Political Agent, is

hopeful of being able to defeat the militants in the short term.

Others point to the relative successes of recent engagements in

Bajaur to support their view that the GOP can turn the tide in

both the short and long term.



13. (C) The new level of pessimism from Qadir, who previously

was generally (some say overly) optimistic about the security



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situation, probably relates to his personal concern about

security at his son's school, previously considered an

institution safe from taliban influence. Nevertheless, it is

disturbing that the FATA Law and Order Secretary, who is

responsible for supervising all the Political Agents, believes

the militants are winning in both FATA and NWFP.

VIA