TTP SUCCESSION: CONTINUED CONFUSION AND FRAGMENTATION

C O N F I D E N T I A L PESHAWAR 000176 E.O. 12958: DECL: 8/26/2019 TAGS: PTER MOPS PGOV PK SUBJECT: TTP SUCCESSION: CONTINUED CONFUSION AND FRAGMENTATION REF: ISLAMABAD 1844 CLASSIFIED BY: Lynne Tracy, Principal Officer, U.S. Consulate Peshawar, U.S. Department of State. REASON: 1.4 (b),(d) ¶1. (C) Summary: Almost three weeks after the death of Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) chief Baitullah Mehsud, an apparent joint media statement August 25 by Hakimullah Mehsud and Waliur Rehman Mehsud may mark a truce in the battle for succession. However, Pakistani military officials believe that Hakimullah is dead and worry that the Afghan Taliban are trying to control the succession struggle. Regardless of the veracity of the latest announcement, the disarray of the TTP following Baitullah's death - including reports of a succession shura shootout, internecine clashes, and arrests of high-profile personnel - has reinforced an overall picture of a weakening organization. The Pakistani military continues to insist they will move forward with a ground offensive as planned in South Waziristan, but for now they are content to let TTP commanders kill each other. End summary. ¶2. (SBU) On August 19, Faqir Mohammad announced his ascension to the leadership of the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP). Faqir claimed that because Baitullah Mehsud was seriously ill, Faqir, as vice president of TTP, would take the reins. On August 22, Faqir claimed that he was stepping down as TTP chief in favor of Hakimullah Mehsud, whom he claimed had been selected by a full shura of the TTP meeting in Orakzai; the shura, he said, had recognized his authority. On August 23, rival claimant Waliur Rehman Mehsud met with a stringer for the Associated Press and claimed to have been appointed interim chief of the TTP by Baitullah. The TTP shura, he said, would determine the succession within the following five days. On August 25, Hakimullah and Waliur Rehman reportedly made a joint call to an Associated Press stringer familiar with both and announced that Hakimullah was the new leader of TTP and that Waliur had the lead for TTP efforts in South Waziristan. They said that they were calling together to dispel any reports of disunity within TTP. They did not acknowledge Faqir Mohammad's claims. Baitullah is Dead; New Leadership Claim Unity... -------------- --- ¶3. (C) These claims are the most recent in a series of contradicting claims and reports from figures associated with the TTP about the status of and succession to Baitullah Mehsud. After an early series of press reports citing TTP figures as variously confirming and denying Baitullah's death, the TTP line had been that Baitullah was alive but ill. Hakimullah and Waliur Rehman, in their August 25 phone call to AP, reported that Baitullah had been alive, but very ill, until his death on August 23. This concession, apparently by the two highest-ranking TTP leaders, was taken by most in Pakistan as definitive TTP recognition of Baitullah's death. ¶4. (C) Particularly unresolved had been the veracity of a widely credited account of a gunfight on August 8 during a shura held to determine succession, in which Hakimullah and Waliur Rehman. Interior Minister Rehman Malik had confirmed Hakimullah's death to the press on multiple occasions; NWFP Governor Owais Ghani also confirmed it to the PO in her initial courtesy call on August 18. If true, Hakimullah's death would have left the other heir-apparent, Waliur Rehman, as the probable successor; his reported personal appearance before the AP stringer on August 23 would confirm his claim not to have been killed or wounded. The August 25 phone call gives new but unconfirmed indication that Hakimullah is not dead and is the new head of TTP. The presence of both contenders for the leadership role suggests that the succession from Baitullah to Hakimullah is agreed upon, at least within the Mehsuds. ...But Other Signs Point to TTP Fragmentation -------------- ¶5. (C) Other events have augmented perceptions that the TTP is under pressure and collapsing into internecine strife. Over the past two weeks, the Pakistani press has reported multiple gun battles between militants in and around South Waziristan (though many of these have been between the TTP and other organizations),an attack by a TTP-aligned militia on another TTP-aligned militia in Upper Orakzai, and the capture of a Baitullah aide in Rawalpindi. The August 19 capture of former TTP spokesman Maulvi Omar in Mohmand Agency, attributed in the press to a local lashkar which handed him over to political authorities, further highlighted the dissension within the group. Maulvi Omar, who had been sidelined as TTP spokesman for a few months, was able to confirm to the press that Baitullah had indeed died and that there was significant infighting between the various factions of the TTP. ¶6. (C) The most recent evidence of the paranoia of TTP elements has been the report - initially from our contacts and now acknowledged in the Pakistani press - that elements of the TTP had detained Baitullah's brother -in-law and father-in-law Ikramullah, at whose house Baitullah had been staying when he died. This detention, which TTP sources said was for the purpose of questioning the two on their suspected passing of information on Baitullah's whereabouts to the U.S., is likely also relevant to - if not part of - the succession struggle. Ikramullah is a respected Mehsud tribal elder who, prior to Baitullah's death, was allegedly serving as an intermediary between Baitullah and a group of Mehsud maliks and Deobandi clerics attempting to negotiate an end to the Pakistani military operation in South Waziristan. Don't Interrupt the Enemy When He Is Making A Mistake -------------- -------------- ¶7. (C) Comment: There is still considerable doubt in Pakistan that Hakimullah is alive or that the TTP succession issue has been settled. Even if true, the statement indicates that Hakimullah will have to share power with second-tier commanders like Waliur Rehman and perhaps Faqir Mohammad. Faqir Mohammad's claim to overall TTP leadership was never likely to have been ratified by the Mehsuds, who have provided the bulk of the TTP's striking power since its formation in 2007; however, the fact that he made a claim at all indicates some level of discontent with the current structure of the TTP. Waliur Rehman's August 23 statement to the press made clear that he continues to covet the role of successor; according to our contacts, he has enough seniority among the Mehsuds to split the movement if he wished to do so. Both Army and Frontier Corps leaders have shared with PO their concerns that the Afghan Taliban are trying to control the succession struggle. ¶8. (C) Comment continued: Frontier Corps Commander MG Tariq Khan told PO August 26 that the Army and the FC are steadfast in their commitment to begin ground operations in South Waziristan by the end of September. According to the press, the GOP reportedly has rejected Hafiz Gul Bahadur's August 22 announcement of a Ramazan ceasefire in North Waziristan. Many Consulate contacts, however, believe that the Pakistan military is putting the ground offensive on hold to avoid giving the feuding TTP forces a reason to unite. End comment. PUTNAM