FRENCH MFA MID-EAST DIRECTOR ON IRAN, PEACE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 PARIS 000986

SIPDIS
NOFORN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/21/2019
TAGS: PGOV PREL FR
SUBJECT: FRENCH MFA MID-EAST DIRECTOR ON IRAN, PEACE
PROCESS, SYRIA, LEBANON, IRAQ, KUWAIT

Classified By: Political Counselor Andrew Young, reasons 1.4 (b) and (d
).


1. (C) SUMMARY: MFA Middle East Director (Assistant
Secretary equivalent) Patrice Paoli emphasized to WE Office
Director Maureen Cormack July 16 the importance of persuading
European and USG allies around the world to recognize, and
act to prevent, the destabilizing consequences of a
nuclear-armed Iran. Paoli expressed strong concern that
regional powers outside Europe, North AMERICA and the Middle
East do not perceive Iran's nuclear program as a serious
threat to regional stability and global non-proliferation
efforts. Referring to the Iranian ex-patriate community in
France, he said that 1,500 Iranian citizens currently study
at universities throughout France and approximately 10,000
residents in France are of Iranian extraction, including
citizens and non-citizens. Paoli and Desk Officer Arnaud
Pescheux, who also attended the meeting, described the
changing relationship between the security apparatus and the
clergy in Iran as the most important post-election
development. They described a "radical re-distribution of
political power" from the clerics to the security forces,
specifically to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).
The French believe a rupture at the heart of the IRGC would
weaken the regime most significantly. In light of these
changes, they said that France plans to intensify its
engagement with Iranian civil society and, if necessary, to
support the imposition of harsh new sanctions.


2. (C/NF) SUMMARY CONTINUED: With regard to
Israeli-Palestinian negotiations, the GOF does not support a
peace conference for its own sake, Paoli explained; they
support any mechanism that will spur and accelerate forward
progress. Paoli denied rumors that the French have begun to
facilitate Israeli-Syrian dialogue and he related recent
comments by Syrian President Bashar Al-Asad to French leaders
about Israel, Palestine, Egypt, and sanctions. Paoli also
briefly discussed Iraq-Kuwait border negotiations as well as
Michel Aoun and Saad Hariri's current approach to forming a
new government in Lebanon.

Regional Powers Not Taking Threat from Iran Seriously
-------------- --------------


3. (C) Paoli expressed strong concern that regional powers
outside Europe, North AMERICA and the Middle East do not
perceive Iran's nuclear program as a serious threat to
regional stability and global non-proliferation efforts.
Recently the French conducted formal conversations with their
counterparts worldwide, Paoli reported, including in South
Africa, Brazil, India, and Japan. They sought to evaluate
perceptions of Iran in official circles. They found, to
their disappointment, that officials in most countries do not
share our sense of urgency. Even some smaller EU countries,
the French discovered, do not consider halting Iran's nuclear
program to be a national priority. Paoli stressed the
importance of persuading European and USG allies around the
world to recognize, and act to prevent, the destabilizing
global consequences of a nuclear-armed Iran.

Approximately 10,000 Iranian Ex-Patriates Living in France
-------------- --------------


4. (C) Paoli and Iran Desk Officer Arnaud Pescheux, who also
attended the meeting, said that 1,500 Iranian citizens
currently study at universities throughout France. They
estimated that approximately 10,000 residents in France are
of Iranian extraction, including citizens and non-citizens.
Admitting that the GOF has not tracked the growth of its
Iranian population, they said they cannot provide precise
numbers. Many residents who arrived following the Iranian
Revolution have now integrated fully. Paoli noted that the
size and influence of the Iranian immigrant community in
France cannot compare with those of the Moroccan and Algerian
populations, both of which exceed one million. He added that
the Tunisian, Turkish and Portugese immigrants, among other
nationalities, also have a significantly larger presence in
France than do the Iranians. Paoli said that MEK leadership
is active in France, but the GOF has no intention to work
with them. In addition, the Iranian "Royalists" live in
Paris. Reza Pahlavi, the eldest son of Shah Mohammed, still
hopes to take power, Paoli mused, adding that Pahlavi
occasionally holds press conferences "which interest no one
except the Iranian government, which denounces them as
scandalous."


5. (C) Paoli and Pescheux expressed interest in learning how
the USG balances freedom and control when welcoming Iranian
students and workers into the country. They inquired as to

PARIS 00000986 002 OF 003


the number of Iranian students currently present in the U.S.,
and they asked whether we believe to have attained benefits
through exchanges with members of Iranian civil society. The
French are currently re-examining their approach to Iranian
civil society, Paoli said, and they plan to intensify their
engagement.

French Analysis of Iran: Mullahs Losing Power to IRGC
-------------- --------------


6. (C) Pescheux described the changing relationship between
the security apparatus and the clergy in Iran as the most
important post-election development. "It is now
anachronistic to think of Iran as a state led by Mullahs," he
said. "It is a police state. The election was a coup d'etat
by the security forces, by the IRGC." Paoli agreed, adding
that the election formed part of a "radical re-distribution
of political power in Iran." Supreme Leader Khameini's
legitimacy is in question now, Paoli said, especially since
he never had much religious legitimacy; his power stemmed
from his broad political support, which both reformers and
hardliners have challenged. Indeed, Paoli argued, "Khameini
and the Iranian regime are currently suffering from the
consequences of their own actions and world view: no
dialogue, no compromise." Thus, Paoli explained, the French
believe a rupture at the heart of the IRGC, "whose leaders
control security as well as the economy," would weaken the
government most significantly. Right now it seems the regime
will last, he said, though it will likely become more
paranoid and insular. "We must hold out our hands, ready for
dialogue, while keeping in mind that we've been doing this in
Europe for ten years now." In the meantime, Paoli added, we
(the EU and USG) are moving toward the necessity to impose
new sanctions which go "far beyond" petrol.

Peace Process: Anything to Spur Forward Movement
-------------- ---


7. (C) With reference to Israeli-Palestinian negotiations,
the GOF does not support a peace conference for its own sake,
Paoli explained; they support any mechanism that will spur
and accelerate forward progress. "How do we operationalize
all the good ideas and investments already made in the peace
process?" Obama has taken risks, he asserted, so how do we
translate them into action? Paoli said the Saudis recently
posed the same question, despite what he described as their
typical prudence. Moreover, he claimed that Mitchell has
proceeded too cautiously, and that some Arab diplomats
described Secretary Clinton's July 15 speech as "a step
backwards," although he did not explain the reasons for this
alleged perception.

Syria: Peace Process, Lebanon, Iraq and Sanctions
-------------- --------------


8. (C/NF) Paoli denied rumors that the French have begun to
facilitate Israeli-Syrian dialogue. He said that Prime
Minister Netanyahu told President Sarkozy he does not want to
negotiate with Syria through Turkey; he prefers direct talks,
while President Asad has said he prefers indirect talks.
Asad recently told Foreign Minister Kouchner that "Fatah is
dead," according to Paoli, before dismissing Egypt's handling
of Fatah-Hamas negotiations: "Egypt is partial toward Fatah
and thus will never broker agreement" between the two groups,
Asad reportedly told Kouchner. Asad also claimed to have "no
interlocutor" in Israel: "We're ready but Netanyahu is not
there and the Palestinians are not ready." Paoli reported
that the French continue to press Asad to improve control of
Syria's border with Iraq: "(Sarkozy's Chief of Staff) Gueant
and Kouchner made their first points with Asad about Iraq,"
Paoli asserted, referring to their recent visits to Syria and
Lebanon. "We've always told Syria to stop interfering in
Iraq and to improve their border controls." Asad reportedly
replied that the Syrians will now work with Prime Minister
Maliki, since he has demonstrated local support in Iraq.
Above all else, Paoli said, Asad still seeks international
recognition for Syria: "Bashir Asad's dream is a phone call
from President Obama." Paoli also claimed that Asad wants
the USG to ease restrictions on Syria's ability to import
aeronautic technology and parts. (NOTE: Paoli admitted that
the French have an interest in this particular sanction,
since it affects a pending sale of Airbus planes to Syria,
but he said the Syrians have raised it numerous times.
Sarkozy's Middle East Advisor Boris Boillon relayed the same
information July 5 to the Political-Minister Counselor. END
NOTE.)

Lebanon: Hariri, Aoun and Government Formation
-------------- -

PARIS 00000986 003 OF 003




9. (C) Michel Aoun's stubborn approach currently poses the
biggest obstacle to the formation of a new government in
Lebanon, Paoli argued. Aoun's recent election defeat, his
second major electoral loss, still stings, and he is also
engaged in an internal debate about the future of his party.
Hizbollah, Paoli added, also appear to be debating their
future direction and priorities. For his part, Saad Hariri
seeks four guarantees, according to Paoli:

1 -- No veto for the opposition;
2 -- Syria will engage with Palestinian militants in refugee
camps in Lebanon;
3 -- Syria will agree to de-limit national borders;
4 -- The Syria-Lebanon Supervisory Committee established in
the Taif Agreement will be disbanded.

Paoli added that Hariri worries about that the Saudis and
Syrians might reach agreement without his approval or input.

Iraq - Kuwait Border Dispute
--------------


10. (C) Paoli did not delve into specifics about the draft
Security Council Resolution regarding the Iraq-Kuwait border
dispute, but he said the French believe the P3 should move
the text closer to the Kuwaiti position in order to send a
signal of support to Iraq's neighbors in the region. "We
don't want these negotiations to become a means for Iraq to
pressure or intimidate smaller countries," Paoli said.
PEKALA