FRENCH MFA EXPECTS EU-SYRIA ASSOCIATION AGREEMENT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 PARIS 000969

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/15/2019
TAGS: PGOV PREL FR
SUBJECT: FRENCH MFA EXPECTS EU-SYRIA ASSOCIATION AGREEMENT
TO BE APPROVED IN SEPTEMBER

Classified By: Political Counselor Andrew R. Young, reasons 1.4 (b) and
(d).


1. (C) SUMMARY AND COMMENT: MFA Middle East Director
(Assistant Secretary equivalent) Patrice Paoli confidently
predicted to WE Office Director Maureen Cormack July 16 that
the EU will approve an Association Agreement with Syria at
the September 14-15 meeting of EU foreign ministers (GAERC).
While acknowledging current Dutch opposition to the
Agreement, Senior MFA Syria Desk Officer Thierry Vallat told
poloff July 13 that France believes compromise language will
be agreed within the EU by September. Vallat said that
current EU President Sweden will play an important role in
forging consensus among member states. The UK and Germany
are "not enthusiastic" about signing the Association
Agreement, Vallat admitted, but they do not intend to block
it. "We can never be sure, of course," he added, "since
anyone can veto." Indeed, Swedish, Finnish and UK Embassy
contacts in Paris described the French as over-confident
about prospects for the Agreement's approval in September.
While the EU still lacks consensus on this issue, momentum is
clearly building towards concluding this Agreement between
now and December 2009, when the Swedish EU presidency ends.
The September GAERC meeting is the earliest deadline that
action could be formalized, so if the USG wishes to influence
this evolving policy, we may have only six weeks in which to
engage our EU interlocutors. (BIOGRAPHIC NOTE: Thierry
Vallat, who has focused primarily on Syria for two years at
the French MFA, will in August move to Jerusalem to serve as
Deputy to EU Special Envoy for the Peace Process Marc Otte.
END NOTE.) END SUMMARY AND COMMENT.

Agreement Could "Strengthen the Liberals" Surrounding Assad
-------------- --------------


2. (C) Vallat explained that the French have encouraged
other EU members to approve the Association Agreement because
it will "strengthen the liberals surrounding President Assad
and weaken the conservatives." Enforcement of the agreement
will press the Syrians to open and reform their economy,
Vallat argued, while also improving the rule of law in Syria.
He said the Agreement will strengthen the authority of
Assad, who will present it as a victory for the regime.
Moreover, Vallat stressed that the Association Agreement
contains contractual obligations for both the EU and Syria.
He said that the Agreement obliges the Syrians, for instance,
to liberalize their economy and to engage in dialogue with
the EU about a variety of issues, including human rights and
democracy.

France Sees No Syrian Progress on Human Rights
-------------- -


3. (C) In the same conversation, Vallat admitted that the
Syrians have made "practically no progress" in improving
their human rights record since the French re-established
diplomatic ties in 2007. The Syrian human rights record is a
"catastrophe," he averred. He cited as one minor step
forward the recent freeing of Michel Kilo. "To release
someone from prison after he has served out his sentence
represents progress in Syria," Vallat observed wryly. He
then listed three other positive steps the French believe
Syria has taken since 2007. They have:

-- Sent an Ambassador to Beirut for the first time;
-- Served as a moderating influence on Hamas;
-- Agreed to pass messages to Iran about international
concern over Iran's nuclear program.

Despite Syria's abysmal human rights record, these steps
offer "proof that Syria is changing," Vallat asserted.

EU Echo Chamber -- Approval by September Unlikely
-------------- --------------


4. (C) EU diplomats in Paris offered somewhat more cautious
views on the likelihood of an imminent EU-Syria agreement,
but they agreed generally that momentum is gathering in
favor. Swedish diplomat Daniel Wolven confirmed that signing
this agreement is now one of the priorities of the Swedish EU
Presidency. UK diplomat Ben Fender noted that London has
reserved support for signing pending translation of the text
into the various EU languages (likely by early September).
Final agreement to support the Agreement will be contingent
upon whether it sufficiently addresses British concerns about
Syria in the areas of non-proliferation, anti-terrorism
cooperation and human rights; if so, then the UK is not
likely to block or seek to add new conditions prior to
signing. On the other hand, Fender reported that the Dutch
government continues to have "significant problems" with
signing the agreement that remain to be overcome within the

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EU. Finnish diplomat Johanna Karanko added that the Syrian
reaction also remains a wild card, as Damascus has not yet
committed to signing the agreement and it could still seek
changes or condition its support on other factors. All
agreed that the political context of Syrian behavior as
evaluated this fall would influence how quickly or slowly the
proposed Agreement could be concluded.


5. (C) COMMENT: The reaction of our EU contacts broadly
showed that the French position as expressed by Paoli and
Vallat is not universally accepted by all 27 member states.
That said, it is clear that momentum is building towards
concluding an EU-Syria agreement between now and December
2009, when the Swedish EU presidency ends. Wild cards now
remain the intensity of Dutch opposition, their willingness
to remain the lone country blocking the agreement
(particularly in light of the intra-EU displeasure they are
facing due to their blockage of progress on the
implementation of the SAA agreement with Serbia),and whether
the Syrian government will be prepared to accept the EU
conditions, which should include a process on addressing WMD
and a regular dialogue on human rights issues. The September
14-15 GAERC meeting is the earliest deadline that action
could be formalized, so if the USG wishes to influence this
evolving policy, we may have only six weeks in which to
engage our EU interlocutors. END COMMENT.
PEKALA