FRANCE FOCUSED ON BURMA PRISONER RELEASE,

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 PARIS 000512 SIPDIS STATE PLEASE PASS EAP/MLS (SCHEIBE) E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/08/2019 TAGS: PGOV PREL ETRD FR BM SUBJECT: FRANCE FOCUSED ON BURMA PRISONER RELEASE, POLITICAL DIALOGUE; NO EASING OF SANCTIONS REF: A. STATE 33547 ¶B. 08 PARIS 2178 Classified By: Political Counselor Andrew R. Young. Reasons 1.4 b/d. Summary -------------- ¶1. (C) France remains focused on prisoner release and launching a legitimate political dialogue in Burma and sees no reason to ease sanctions against the Junta at this time, Burma desk officer Jeremie Petit told us April 8. Responding to ref A points, Petit said the EU decided to keep the Common Position largely unchanged because of lack of positive progress in Burma. He said one risk of any U.S. direct talks with the regime could be marginalization of the international community's role. In France's view, UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon's "good offices" mission should be bolstered. The EU and the United States need to find a way to work better with Burma's neighbors and strengthen the hand of Indonesia within ASEAN, Petit judged. End Summary. No Easing of Sanctions -------------- ¶2. (C) In endorsing renewal of the EU Common Position at the April 27-28 GAERC, France wants to maintain Europe's focus on persuading the Burmese regime to release political prisoners and launch a genuine political dialogue with the opposition, Petit remarked. Referring to mention in the Common Position of Burma's 2010 election, Petit said the French advocated using a "conditional" formulation, along the lines of "the election will have no legitimacy if it is not preceded by prisoner releases and political dialogue." As there has been no movement on these fronts, France sees no reason to support any lifting or easing of sanctions at this time. If positive progress in Burma were to occur, then France would be prepared to ?make a gesture? and would review the scope and focus of sanctions. Yes to Continued Cooperation -------------- ¶3. (C) Petit said France and the EU welcomed continued cooperation with the United States on Burma issues. With respect to the possibility of the United States starting a direct dialogue with the Junta, Petit cautioned that in his view, such an initiative risked sidelining the international community. The Burmese leadership might decide to focus exclusively on the bilateral discussions with Washington and ignore the EU, the UN or even its Asian neighbors. As for ramping up humanitarian assistance, Petit questioned whether the Junta would be interested in such aid. The Burmese regime does not want to give the impression it needs help at all and probably feels it has staying power with or without humanitarian assistance. ¶4. (C) One idea France favors is "Track Two"-style diplomacy, Petit said, particularly in the area of attempting to fortify Burmese civil society, including via support for groups focused on education or health issues. All such activity would advance within the constraints of Common Position rules so as not to violate any sanctions. As for the United States, Petit recommended Washington's attention remain centered on prisoner releases and political dialogue. While it is out of the question to contemplate lifting sanctions now, the United States and the EU could consider ways to show Asian partners we will be "pragmatic and react positively" if there Burmese regime takes positive concrete steps. Should SYG Ban Go to Burma? -------------- ¶5. (C) Petit contended that international attention has shifted away from Burma as memories of Cyclone Nargis (May 2008) and the monks? protests (fall PARIS 00000512 002 OF 002 2007) fade. Against this backdrop, a visit by UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon could help refocus the international community on Burma issues. Petit acknowledged the risk that the regime could manipulate such a trip for its own propaganda purposes. He also said the idea of a SYG Ban visit is getting stale, as it has been discussed for some nine months. "He has to decide whether or not to go so we can move on," he said. Nonetheless, Petit said France supports the idea of a strengthened SYG good offices mission. "Strengthen Indonesia" -------------- ¶6. (C) The countries with the most influence on Burma are its neighbors, Petit stressed. The United States and the EU need to figure out a way to collaborate more productively with China, India and ASEAN to apply pressure on the Burmese regime to change. ASEAN's own internal rivalries harm efforts at coordination, Petit maintained, noting that Singapore wants to keep Indonesia from becoming the grouping's dominant voice while Thailand remains skittish about taking hard-line stances on Burma. In this context, Petit observed that Indonesia's position toward the Junta is closer to that of the United States and the EU, and "we should do what we can to strengthen" Indonesia's influence in ASEAN on Burma matters. ¶7. (C) Poloff stressed the importance of the United States and the EU continuing to coordinate on Burma issues in order to guarantee there is no space between us with respect to sanctions or other pressure. The Burmese regime must hear a united international voice and should not get the impression of weakened resolve on the U.S. or EU's part. The United States will share the conclusions of its Burma policy review at the earliest opportunity, Poloff concluded. PEKALA