GUINEA-BISSAU: FRANCE THINKS ELECTIONS ARE THE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 PARIS 000324 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/05/2019 TAGS: PGOV PINR PREL SNAR PU FR SUBJECT: GUINEA-BISSAU: FRANCE THINKS ELECTIONS ARE THE KEY NEXT STEP REF: A. DAKAR 263 ¶B. DAKAR 275 ¶C. USUN 209 PARIS 00000324 001.5 OF 002 Classified By: Political Counselor Andrew Young, 1.4 (b/d). ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: France believes that it is imperative that presidential elections be held in Guinea-Bissau within the 60-day time-frame specified in the Guinea-Bissau constitution, MFA deskoff Ann'laure Hare said on March 4. The GOF is considering ways France can assist with elections but the issue has not yet become a subject of EU discussion. Hare said that President Vieira's death did not appear to be part of a classic coup attempt but rather the result of his problems with CHOD General Tagme Na Wai, who was killed just prior to Vieira's death. France is concerned that the instability in Guinea-Bissau may make the narco-trafficking problem in Guinea-Bissau worse than it already is. END SUMMARY. Elections -------------- ¶2. (C) We met with MFA Guinea-Bissau deskoff Ann'laure Hare on March 4 to discuss the GOF's reaction to recent events in Guinea-Bissau (reftels). Hare said that the most important issue was whether Guinea-Bissau would hold elections within the 60-day period specified in its constitution in this kind of situation. She believed that the clock had started ticking with the taking of office of interim President Raimundo Pereira (former National Assembly President) on March 3. Holding the elections before 60 days passed was important because if such elections were not held, the constitution contained no provisions on how the country would be governed. If Guinea-Bissau entered into a constitutionally uncertain vacuum, further instability could ensue, which would only benefit the already large and powerful narco-trafficking groups active in Guinea-Bissau. ¶3. (C) Hare said that intra-GOF discussions were continuing on how France and the EU could help Guinea-Bissau quickly organize elections. She said that the discussions were still internal to the GOF and that the issue had not yet become a subject for broader EU consideration. She indicated, however, that the EU was likely to take up the issue sooner rather than later. What Happened? -------------- ¶4. (C) Acknowledging that reliable information about recent events was difficult to obtain, Hare said that it seemed apparent that Vieira was killed in response to the earlier killing of CHOD General Tagme. It was not clear, however, that Vieira was involved in Tagme's death. Hare said that using a car bomb such as the one that killed Tagme was not a typical method used by Africans. There were also indications that the bomb was relatively sophisticated and possibly not within the expertise of local elements that might have wanted to kill Tagme. Hare speculated that Tagme was killed by international drug-traffickers who had some sort of gripe against Tagme. Unfortunately for Vieira, Tagme loyalists apparently assumed that Vieira was behind the bombing and went after him. New Political Landscape -------------- ¶5. (C) Hare said that interim President Raimundo Pereira did not want to become president and more or less had it forced on him by operation of the constitution. She reported that Pereira seemed "terrified" and was hunkered down in an effort to maximize his own and his family's security. Hare was not sure when or if Pereira would actively engage as president, making the timely holding of elections, and the international community's support for such elections, all the more important. Hare said that the best-positioned political leader still standing was PM Carlos Gomes, who continued in office. Hare speculated that former President Kumba Yala would also no doubt try to regain political prominence. On the Ground -------------- ¶6. (C) The French Ambassador in Guinea-Bissau was able to circulate freely and to contact GOGB officials, Hare reported, which indicated that some semblance of "normalcy" now prevailed. However, Hare cautioned that we were still in a very early stage following this national trauma and that it PARIS 00000324 002.4 OF 002 was by no means certain that a return to normalcy would continue. The question of the elections remained, along with, Hare stressed, the possibility that the narco-traffickers would try to assert even greater influence in the impoverished and directionless country. PEKALA