FRENCH PREVIEW OF GAERC: AFGHANISTAN, MIDDLE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 PARIS 000265 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/20/2019 TAGS: PREL EUN KPAL KWBG IS BK MW SR AF KV FR SUBJECT: FRENCH PREVIEW OF GAERC: AFGHANISTAN, MIDDLE EAST, W. BALKANS, EASTERN PARTNERSHIP REF: A. PARIS POINTS FOR DECEMBER 16 ¶B. 2008 Classified By: Political Minister-Counselor Kathleen Allegrone for reas ons 1.4 b and d. ¶1. (C) Summary. On February 20, French MFA Deputy Chief for EU Common Foreign and Security Policy (CFSP) Mathieu Carmona previewed four agenda items for the February General Affairs and External Relations Council (GAERC) meeting: Afghanistan, the Middle East peace process, the Western Balkans, and Eastern Partnership. On both Afghanistan and the Middle East, discussion will be largely informal and forward-looking. Regarding the Western Balkans, the foreign ministers hope to make progress on determining the name and responsibilities of the next High Representative/EU Special Representative in Bosnia. Serbia, Montenegro, and Kosovo will be shorter subjects of discussion. Carmona said the French support the Czech initiative for the Eastern Partnership, with certain redlines regarding visas and development assistance. Regarding Sri Lanka and provincial elections in Iraq, conclusions will be issued without further discussion. In the now-unlikely event the ICC indicts Sudanese President Bashir before Monday, Sudan would become an agenda item, producing a call for a responsible reaction from the Sudanese government. End Summary. ¶2. (C) Afghanistan: The EU foreign ministers will discuss Afghanistan to build more common ground while the U.S. policy review is ongoing, and with an eye on possible additional contributions in months to come. Carmona said the member-states welcome signs of increased convergence in strategy between Europe and the U.S., while recognizing that U.S. expectations from Europe are also increased. The EU is evaluating the role and effectiveness of EUPOL, as well as examining the possibility of an election observation mission, with a study team planning travel to Afghanistan to determine the feasibility. Thus, follow-on discussion in March and April will be more substantive and possibly produce concrete conclusions, as a number of member-states are interested in "doing more" in Afghanistan. Carmona noted one legal problem that will be discussed - the gap between the end of President Karzai's mandate in May and the elections in August - but he stated that the Afghans must resolve the problem with encouragement from the international community. ¶3. (C) Middle East: Discussion of the Middle East will also be informal and forward-looking, with no clear way forward for improving the situation beyond the EU-facilitated ceasefire in place, particularly given uncertainty over the composition of the Israeli government. Carmona also noted that the EU is not in a position to help directly with Israel's stated priority of the liberation of Gilad Shalit. Thus, the focus of discussion will be the March 2 donors' conference in Egypt, including how to aid Gaza without weakening the West Bank. ¶4. (C) Western Balkans: Carmona said discussion would include Bosnia, Serbia, Montenegro and Kosovo; however, no formal conclusions are expected. Carmona said the Bosnia discussion would be the most open-ended, covering the choice of the next High Representative/EU Special Representative (EUSR) as well as that person's powers. EU CFSP chief Solana will recommend names to the ministers, and this GAERC could produce a decision on the preferred candidate. The scope of that person's powers is also critical, with the Office of the High Representative likely to close later this year. Carmona said the GOF believes a strong EUSR is necessary, retaining some of the Bonn powers to ensure a strong political lever on Bosnian authorities. Thus, the EUSR should be able to recommend sanctions, control EU assistance, and weigh in with recommendations at each step of Bosnia's adhesion to the EU. Carmona noted that France and Germany formally share this position. ¶5. (C) Regarding Serbia, Carmona said the GOF has serious reservations about the Serb proposal that the EU send a mission to Serbia to assess the extent of Serbia's cooperation with the ICTY. The French position is that ICTY Chief Prosecutor Brammertz already has that responsibility, and any additional effort would undermine his authority. On Montenegro, the issue is whether Montenegro's December 2008 application for EU membership should be transmitted immediately to the Commission. Carmona said France sees no reason not to transmit the application now, particularly given Montenegro's cooperation in delaying its submission (ref A). Finally, regarding Kosovo, Carmona noted a diplomatic incident yesterday in which EUSR Sorensen was shut out by the Serbs. The foreign ministers will look at this PARIS 00000265 002 OF 002 incident as well as obstacles in the deployment of EULEX, to determine ways they can be avoided in the future. Carmona stated that the Czech EU Presidency will likely demarche Belgrade regarding the Sorensen incident. ¶6. (C) Eastern Partnership: Carmona said France "completely favors" the initiative, which aims to reinforce the EU's neighborhood policy by strengthening ties with 6 Eastern countries to expand the EU's area of prosperity and stability. He noted two redlines for the GOF: visa policy, which must remain consistent with other previous decisions, and allocation of EU aid, which should remain at its current ratio of two-thirds towards the more-numerous southern neighbors and one-third for eastern neighbors. ¶7. (C) Other Topics: Carmona noted without elaborating that conclusions would be issued without further discussion on Sri Lanka and Iraqi provincial elections. Sudan had been a potential topic for discussion, with the Czech Presidency prepared to organize emergency PSC and COREPER meetings to produce formal statements should the ICC have indicted President Bashir before the GAERC. Although that now seems unlikely, Carmona said the EU is aware of the need to dissuade the regime from overreacting and making the situation worse. Thus, the EU will likely call for the Sudanese government to implement the ICC indictment and remain focused on resolving the Darfur situation as soon as possible after an indictment takes place. PEKALA