READOUT OF PRESIDENT SARKOZY'S GULF TOUR

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 PARIS 000239 NOFORN SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/17/2024 TAGS: PGOV PREL FR SUBJECT: READOUT OF PRESIDENT SARKOZY'S GULF TOUR REF: BAGHDAD 376 Classified By: Political Minister-Counselor Kathleen H. Allegrone, reas ons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (S) Summary: President Sarkozy sees his February 10-11 visit to the Gulf as a success, especially his surprise visit to Iraq, where he invited President Talabani to lead a state visit to Paris at the end of the year along with both Iraqi Vice Presidents. According to Presidential Middle East Advisor Boris Boillon, Sarkozy was particularly impressed with PM Maliki (whom he also invited to Paris),and was pleased that Maliki gave him a green light to move forward on establishing French consulates in Erbil and Basrah. The remainder of Sarkozy's regional tour was dominated by discussion of Iran, with a general consensus that President Ahmadinejad is likely to win reelection, and by promising if somewhat inconclusive commercial talks with the Kuwaitis. End summary. Appreciation and Atmospherics -------------- ¶2. (C) A somewhat bleary-eyed Presidential Middle East Advisor, Boris Boillon, provided a readout of President Sarkozy's February 10-11 trip to Iraq, Oman, Bahrain and Kuwait during a February 12 meeting. According to Boillon, Sarkozy's was the first visit ever of a sitting French president to Baghdad, and was the first such visit in more than twenty years to Kuwait and Oman, and in nineteen years to Bahrain. At each stop, Sarkozy was pleasantly surprised by the warm thanks he received for France's diplomatic action throughout the Gaza crisis. Boillon contrasted these expressions of gratitude with the bitter criticism Sarkozy has received from France's Arab community, which has accused Sarkozy of anti-Palestinian bias and which was especially outraged by the deployment of a French frigate to detect any attempts to smuggle weapons into Gaza from the sea. According to Boillon, the Elysee has been deluged by angry letters accusing Sarkozy of "enforcing the blockade" on Gaza. Iraq -------------- ¶3. (C) Boillon characterized Sarkozy's visit to Iraq as a "huge success," adding that Sarkozy received an extremely warm welcome from President Talabani and Vice Presidents Abdel Mehdi and al-Hashimi. Talabani hailed the visit as "an historic day" and Abdel Mehdi stressed Iraq's need for France to "play a role in Iraq in all fields," including by re-opening an economic and a military mission in Baghdad. All three Iraqi leaders thanked Sarkozy for his personal role in addressing Iraq's Paris Club debt during his tenure as Minister of Finance, and all three expressed their strong support for Iraq's Christian community (a source of continuing concern for French Christians). Boillon asked that Embassy Paris convey the GOF's gratitude to Embassy Baghdad for its support of the visit, a visit which Sarkozy decided upon in October 2008 (shortly after former MNF-I CG Petraeus' visit to Paris in September). ¶4. (S/NF) Sarkozy's message was simple: "France is on your side." His talking points saluted and pledged support for Iraqi efforts at building democracy, furthering national reconciliation, and carrying out economic reconstruction. In addition, Sarkozy assured the Iraqis that they could count on French support in a range of international and regional fora, to include the UN Security Council, the Paris Club, the International Compact for Iraq, and the Neighbors Conference. "We want to relaunch the bilateral relationship in all fields," said Sarkozy, who invited President Talabani and the two Vice Presidents to pay a state visit to Paris in November or December 2009, and who promised to send French PM Fillon to Baghdad later this year at the head of a commercial delegation. In addition, Sarkozy invited PM Maliki to lead a reciprocal economic visit to Paris before year's end. ¶5. (S/NF) Sarkozy was favorably impressed by his meeting with PM Maliki, who appeared to be firmly in control of the political situation and who spoke authoritatively. Maliki said the Iraqi security forces had grown too large, with nearly 800,000 men and women serving in the army and police, and indicated that he wanted to trim their ranks. Maliki noted that he would send his Defense Minister to Paris in March, and that Oil Minister Shahristani would follow in April. Sarkozy said France was ready to welcome more Iraqi students and would continue its efforts to train Iraqi civil servants. In addition, he sought and received Maliki's approval for France to open consulates in Erbil and Basrah. Maliki raised the need for French energy giant Total "to PARIS 00000239 002 OF 002 return" to Iraq, and mused about the possibility of reducing (or at least re-scheduling) Iraqi reparations to Kuwait (which he said currently consume 5 percent of Iraq's petroleum revenues). Oman -------------- ¶6. (C) In Muscat, Sarkozy enjoyed a "very smooth" meeting with Sultan Qaboos. Their discussion focused on Iran, with the Sultan sharing a detailed analysis of the Iranian domestic political scene in the run up to this summer's presidential election, which he predicted President Ahmadinejad would win. Somewhat paradoxically, the Sultan told Sarkozy that the U.S. should wait until after the election to begin face-to-face negotiations with Tehran, since entering into early talks with the Iranians would "be a gift" to Ahmadinejad. ¶7. (S/NF) The Sultan accepted an invitation to visit Paris, probably in early 2010. In return, Sarkozy asked that the French navy be allowed access to certain Omani facilities in conjunction with anti-piracy operations; the Sultan agreed. The French hope to formalize the deal in the next few weeks. Bahrain and Kuwait -------------- ¶8. (S/NF) In Bahrain, Sarkozy had a pleasant reunion with the King, who has visited Paris twice in the past year. Again, the discussion focused in large part on Iran, with the King stressing that while Manama wanted good relations with Tehran, the Iranians seemed to have a different agenda. The King argued that Syria and Qatar needed to stand with their Arab brothers and not against them. ¶9. (S/NF) The Kuwaiti Emir, Sheikh Sabah, expressed happiness with Sarkozy's visit and seemed particularly interested in the possibility of military cooperation. According to Boillon, the Kuwaitis raised the possibility of purchasing some Rafale fighters but "were not very concrete" about the terms of the deal. The Kuwaitis also expressed polite interest in the possibility of civil nuclear cooperation, but again made no firm commitments. Turning to their northern neighbors, the Kuwaitis expressed satisfaction with the results of Iraq's provincial elections, but remained worried about the possibility of a coup d'etat in the aftermath of a U.S. withdrawal. They predicted that former Iranian President Khatami would fail to unseat Ahmadinejad. ¶10. (S/NF) Comment: Sarkozy's visit to Iraq is the latest evidence that France has turned a corner with respect to Iraq and the U.S. military presence there. With the SOFA in place and the U.S. pursuing a policy of responsible withdrawal in the context of that agreement, the French (well aware that their opposition to the war did not necessarily endear them to either the Shia or Kurdish communities) are eager to increase their diplomatic engagement and to renew the formerly close commercial ties between France and Iraq. Boillon took pains to emphasize (as Sarkozy has also done with the press) that the French have no interest in "competing" for influence in Iraq with the U.S., but instead are taking the view that it is good for Baghdad -- and for Washington -- for the French to build a healthy relationship with the GOI. In particular, Sarkozy hopes that his visit will stimulate further European engagement with Iraq during the coming year. PEKALA