FRENCH TRADE POLICY - PROTECTIONISM REDUX?

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 PARIS 000177 SIPDIS STATE PASS USTR FOR CWILSON, JMURPHY USDA FOR YOST E.O. 12958:02/05/2019 TAGS: ECON ETRD EAGR PREL EU FR SUBJECT: FRENCH TRADE POLICY - PROTECTIONISM REDUX? REF: PARIS 49 Classified by CDA Mark Pekala, reasons 1.4 (b)(d)(e) ¶1. (C) Summary: The February 9 visit to Washington of French Agriculture Minister Michel Barnier comes just before he leaves his post to head-up President Sarkozy's UMP slate of candidates for the European Parliament. His departure may provide an opening to re-engage with the French, who are inclined to support the new U.S. administration, but it will be a tough slog on trade-related policies. Barnier is likely to take his protectionist proclivities to Brussels, where he has his eyes set on becoming France's next EU Commissioner. Embassy Paris recommends a policy of "early and often" high-level dialogue with the French on trade and agriculture issues to push forward where we can and to defend our interests when necessary. End Summary. French Trade Policy - Reading Between the Lines -------------- -- ¶2. (C) At the Washington G-20 summit, President Sarkozy and his government committed to securing a positive outcome on the WTO Doha Development Agenda (DDA) and agreed not to implement any new "protectionism" measures. Prime Minister Fillon noted February 2 that "measures that are too nationalistic can have catastrophic consequences" and pointed out that "protectionism was one of the causes of the crash of 1929." Finance Minister Lagarde, speaking at Davos, stressed the importance of "not overstepping on protectionism," particularly now at a time of global economic crisis. ¶3. (C) However, Trade Minister Anne-Marie Idrac and Ag Minister Barnier are directly responsible for protecting French commercial and agricultural interests, and do so aggressively. They often see U.S. objectives as contrary to French goals. Both governments are considering similar economic stimulus measures. In the automobile sector France is proposing local content requirements as part of its support, while in aviation it is proposing new financial support for Airbus. Yet publicly, Idrac is focused on "Buy America" provisions in the U.S. stimulus bill. She has described such provisions as "a measure that is clearly protectionist and a distortion of competition" and "a very bad sign." Barnier, reacting to the U.S. announcement of possible revised retaliation against European products in the beef hormones dispute, disparaged the U.S. proposal and reiterated French calls for a revamped WTO that takes into account societal preferences. In Their Heart of Hearts -------------- ¶4. (C) The idea of a new global economic order, in which the Bretton Woods institutions evolve to better address twenty first century concerns, animates French "big picture" thinking on how to address the international economic crisis (Reftel). In this view, espoused largely by the Elysee but echoed with enthusiasm across the GOF, the crisis is seen as proof that the U.S. model is broken and that a new hybrid (French model) is required, in which national and regional "preferences" can be given priority over market choices and science-based regulation. "Better regulation" (read regulation based on EU rules and approaches) would become the standard for trade in goods and for financial and other services. ¶5. (C) In their heart of hearts, the French leadership believes an interventionist state is required to regulate and govern economic policy. They see themselves and the EU taking the lead on securing societal and environmental priorities in the marketplace. The French, on agricultural biotech, on beef, and on poultry have resisted implementation of a number of WTO decisions. A cross section of our contacts have told us the government is driven by populist impulses on these issues and prefers to "pay the price" (of WTO retaliation),while seeking to overhaul the WTO decision making process. A long-term GOF objective is recognition that agriculture is different from other goods and should not be within the ambit of the WTO. In the interim, France would like to see European production standards imposed on its trading partners. At the global level, Barnier has been advocating a system of regional markets for food emulating the EU's CAP, especially for Africa. Ways to Sway the French -------------- ¶6. (C) While the European Commission has responsibility for trade for the EU, on agriculture no deal on Doha, on any of our WTO trade disputes, or in the Transatlantic Economic Council (TEC),is possible without the support or acquiescence of the French. Isolating the GOF - no easy task and not something we have succeeded at to date - might result in a pyrrhic victory but with no real change. This has proven PARIS 00000177 002 OF 002 to be the case with WTO decisions and with EU Commission assurances on TEC commitments. ¶7. (C) At the micro level, there may be some tradeoffs possible on specific issues. There may be room to explore a resolution of the beef hormone dispute in which we secure expanded market access for hormone free beef (as the targeting of Roquefort cheese has gotten French attention). There may be some "grand compromise" possible on issues of particular concern to the French, specifically the ongoing wine accord negotiations and issues related to geographical indicators. At the macro level, a deal with India and Brazil on the DDA would likely place France in a position where it could no longer hide behind us in opposition to a Doha agreement. ¶8. (C) There are issues, such as in the G-8 Global Partnership for Food Security, on which we cooperate closely with the French. France also understands the need to secure economic growth, particularly now, and to pay for the reforms and modernization that are at the heart of President Sarkozy's agenda. While his rhetoric has been expansive, results have been more modest and Sarkozy has shown willingness to compromise when necessary. With a worsening economic climate, we need to stress that protectionism is bad for growth and that efficient regulations, rather than cumbersome new rules, can be key to unlocking brakes on economic output. Because France sees itself as, and often is, a global leader, we need to engage the GOF at the same level. This means acting in a manner sensitive to its aspirations, without compromising key U.S. objectives and most importantly, sustained high level contacts and consultation between Washington and Paris. Comment -------------- ¶9. (C) The French state has always played a leading role in the economy and its current President continues the tradition. The chattering classes are enjoying debating whether Sarkozy's "return of the State" harkens back to de Gaulle or further to Colbert. Frequent, high-level bilateral coordination between Washington and Paris on economic and financial issues has been productive at least as far back as the founding of the G5 in 1975. Agriculture Minister Barnier has not been a helpful counterpart and we have modest expectations for his visit to Washington. However, a signal that we want to work with France would be well received and his departure from office opens the door to renewing high level contact with the French on key trade and agriculture issues. PEKALA