CONGO-B'S PARIS-BASED "GOVERNMENT IN EXILE"

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 PARIS 001600 SIPDIS DEPT FOR AF/C E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/30/2019 TAGS: PREL PGOV KCOR CF FR SUBJECT: CONGO-B'S PARIS-BASED "GOVERNMENT IN EXILE" Classified By: Andrew Young, Political Counselor, reason 1.4 (b and d). ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: Self-styled Prime Minister of the Government in Exile of the Republic of Congo, Tony Gilbert Moudilou, insisted that President Sassou Nguesso Nguesso "has to go." Moudilou asserted that Sassou Nguesso is physically and mentally ill, and that the President's goal is to pave the way for his son's succession, further degrading the country's democracy. Moudilou insists that the government needs to engage in an open dialog with all major opposition figures, even as he promotes his own "administration." Moudilou wants U.S. help and claims to be demanding that France stop supporting Sassou Nguesso. END SUMMARY. SASSOU NGUESSO IS THE PROBLEM -------------- ¶2. (C) After insisting on a meeting with the Embassy, self-described Prime Minister of the Government in Exile of the Republic of Congo, Tony Gilbert Moudilou, who was accompanied by his "Secretary General," Eric Patrick Mampouy, told Africa Watcher on November 4 that President Sassou Nguesso is "destroying" the Republic of Congo, both politically and economically and "has to go." Moudilou asserted that only five percent of the population voted in the July 2009 Presidential elections, after the main opposition parties boycotted. There is no independent legislative branch because Sassou Nguesso essentially appointed all the deputies. According to Moudilou, most of the serious opposition has been forced into exile and cannot return to the ROC without facing arrest or assassination. The opposition that remains in the country is granted no political space, and cannot freely move about the country. Political rallies are not allowed. ¶3. (C) Sassou Nguesso has "manufactured" security threats to his administration in order to create the pretext for his overwhelming internal security apparatus, and now is planning to change the constitution to allow him to pursue another presidential mandate or some other manipulation, Moudilou asserted. Much of the President's focus is now on assuring that his son can succeed him. At the same time, Sassou Nguesso rules by fiat, and hasn't held a routine cabinet meeting (conseil des ministres) in more than two years. ¶4. (C) Economically, in Moudilou's assessment, the ROC is becoming poorer, while the ruling elite are grabbing all the country's wealth for themselves. The corruption in the government is not even subtle. He alleged that the GROC has poor budget execution, cannot meet its World Bank and IMF conditionality, and therefore is not making progress on debt reduction. There is no public investment by the government, as demonstrated by the country's deteriorating infrastructure. Moudilou claimed that the national hospital's elevator does not work and its toilets don't flush. SASSOU NGUESSO'S POOR PHYSICAL AND MENTAL HEALTH -------------- ¶5. (C) Sassou Nguesso can longer portray himself as a strong and dynamic leader, because his health is failing and his poor decision-making is clear to everyone, according to Moudilou, who claimed that Sassou Nguesso is afflicted with prostate cancer and suffers from a deep depression brought on by the recent deaths of his daughter and of Gabonese President Omar Bongo. As a result, Sassou Nguesso no longer likes to travel and is not up to the task of being an international statesman. According to Moudilou, even Sassou Nguesso's close advisors and the military leadership are disillusioned by "their president's" failing leadership. ¶6. (C) Moudilou believes that Sassou Nguesso understands that the situation in ROC is not sustainable and that the government needs to reach out to the opposition. Moudilou claims that he has been contacted by highly placed advisors to Sassou Nguesso with requests for private meetings. Moudilou stated that he refused these offers and is sticking to his group's request that the government hold an open roundtable dialog with all the main opposition parties. He explained that he is reluctant to meet privately with GOROC officials or emissaries out of concern of an assassination attempt, or, in keeping his head, that he will be perceived as being co-opted by Sassou Nguesso. WANTS U.S. "HELP" -------------- ¶7. (C) Moudilou stated numerous times that he and his group need U.S. assistance, but was not forthcoming in identifying what type of help he was hoping for, though it seems that direct financial payments are part of his wish list. Paris Africa Watcher explained that the U.S. typically does not PARIS 00001600 002 OF 002 fund political parties or exile groups, and that he should attempt to engage with our embassy in Brazzaville should he have specific ideas for enhancing the ROC's civil society. Moudilou noted that the most important thing is for foreign powers to understand the dire state of his country and not help "prop-up" Sassou Nguesso. This was the message Moudilou claimed he is also delivering to France, adding that France should help Sassou Nguesso leave. In the meantime, Moudilou will continue to hold his own "conseil des ministres" meetings in Paris and share the resulting policies of "his government." COMMENT -------------- ¶8. (C) We have no gauge of Moudilou's credibility, nor of the validity of his fears of persecution that preclude him from pursuing his opposition credentials in Brazzaville. However, in a city full of African diaspora and opposition leaders, Moudilou and Mampouya appear very unwilling to dirty their hands with the real rough and tumble necessary to make political headway against a talented and entrenched strongman like Sassou Nguesso. We will see what they have to say in the future, particularly if some momentum towards a new political dialog is realized. Sassou Nguesso has long been close to France, but this should be a good time for ROC's opposition leaders to cultivate better relations with the GOF, particularly if Sassou Nguesso is indeed trying to manipulate the ROC's constitution and move towards a hereditary succession. Given Sarkozy's public statements in favor of a more open and rational Africa policy, such moves by Sassou Nguesso will at a minimum likely provoke new Mauritania/Niger-style heartburn at the Elysee. That is, France's "old ways" particularly with an eye towards security and stability in Francophone Africa are widely viewed as still trumping any strong stance against anti-democratic behavior. RIVKIN