FRENCH EXPECTATIONS FOR NOVEMBER 16-17 GAERC

C O N F I D E N T I A L PARIS 001511 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/13/2019 TAGS: PREL EUN RS UP SO BK AF BO FR SUBJECT: FRENCH EXPECTATIONS FOR NOVEMBER 16-17 GAERC REF: A. EUR/ERA EMAIL - 11/09/09 ¶B. PARIS 1494 ¶C. PARIS 1418 Classified By: Political Minister-Counselor Kathy Allegrone, Reasons 1. 4 (b),(d). ¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: On November 13, Deputy Chief of the MFA's Common Foreign and Security Policy office Mathieu Carmona previewed French expectations for the November 16-17 GAERC. Foreign ministers will prepare for the upcoming EU-Russia summit by reviewing the Corfu process, the situation in the North Caucasus region, and Georgia. They will also discuss the need to encourage greater political responsibility in Ukraine and plans for a new EU "Crisis Management Concept" for Somalia. A pro forma discussion of the Middle East peace process is expected, and defense ministers and development ministers will join foreign ministers for a review of, respectively, Bosnia and Afghanistan. Carmona also followed up on the latest expectations for Belarus sanctions (see ref B),where he predicts an extension of both the sanctions and their suspension until October 2010. END SUMMARY. -------------- RUSSIA -------------- ¶2. (C) Carmona said foreign ministers will use the November 16 dinner for a wide-ranging discussion of EU-Russia relations in advance of the November 18 EU-Russia summit meeting. He said that although the summit will result in few deliverables, it will be a good chance to advance dialogue towards areas where cooperation is possible. Carmona said at the GAERC, foreign ministers will discuss European security, where the French will express their viewpoint that the Corfu process should be allowed to continue and that it is important to avoid replicating discussions taking place at the OSCE in other forums. Carmona said "we don't want to start again from zero," and stressed that the Corfu process already provided a mechanism for dealing with European security issues. ¶3. (C) Foreign ministers will also discuss the worrying human rights situation in the North Caucasus region, which according to Carmona is contributing to turning the region into a "powder keg." He admitted that this was not currently on the agenda for the EU-Russia summit, but added that recent positive comments by President Medvedev on human rights may give hope for improvement. Ministers will also discuss Georgia, with Carmona saying that while the November 11 Geneva talks did not result in significant progress, the mere fact that all sides were able to exchange views was helpful in easing tensions. ¶4. (SBU) Russia's role on the international scene will also be discussed, especially regarding Iran and Afghanistan. Carmona said the EU will be closely coordinating with the U.S. when dealing with Russia on these issues. On Afghanistan, Carmona said it seems that Russia has the capacity and probably the will to provide concrete assistance, and engaging the Russian leadership to do so would serve also to encourage a more responsible Russian attitude to global affairs generally. -------------- UKRAINE -------------- ¶5. (C) Carmona said Ukraine will be the main topic for discussion on November 17. French State Secretary for European Affairs Pierre Lellouche is visiting Ukraine on November 13, and he will brief GAERC participants on his discussions with Ukrainian leaders. His message, according to Carmona, has been that the Ukrainians must not let narrow political concerns prevent them from pursuing their national interest. The economic crisis hit Ukraine hard, but the Ukrainian leadership has greatly exacerbated the effects of the crisis through actions such as the recent law increasing wages and pensions. Concerned that the crisis in Ukraine can have repercussions throughout Europe, not least if Ukrainian inability to pay Russia for gas shipments precipitates another shut off of gas shipments this winter, Carmona said EU leaders will make a strong push for Ukraine to be more economically responsible both at and on the margins of the December 4 EU-Ukraine summit. However, Carmona added that given domestic political pressures in Ukraine in the presidential elections in January, the EU had to be realistic on what it could expect. He also said that EU leaders would stress to Russia during the EU-Russia summit that any cutoff of gas shipments to Europe would do yet more damage to Russia's reputation as a reliable source of energy. -------------- SOMALIA -------------- ¶6. (C) The discussion of Somalia will focus on a review of the counterpiracy Operation Atalanta, increasing cooperation with AMISOM, and brainstorming on how the EU can become more involved in training TFG troops. Regarding the latter, Carmona said foreign ministers would discuss setting up an EU "Crisis Management Concept" (CMC) to take on greater responsibility for the training mission. Carmona said he had not seen opposition to this measure based on cost, since he does not expect it to be expensive, but added the UK had been reticent, and is demanding that language specifying that "the CMC does not necessarily imply a certain course of action" be added to the document approving its creation. Carmona claimed he did not understand the British reluctance and asked - half-jokingly - whether the USG could approach the UK on this issue. He also said that the EU, or individual member states which might participate in the training mission, may ask the United States for specific assistance in logistics and equipment. -------------- MIDDLE EAST -------------- ¶7. (C) Carmona said the Swedish presidency has insisted on an agenda item on the Middle East peace process. He said that although he did not expect much substantive discussion, he said the ongoing blockage of the peace process had led the Swedes to use the logic that "we can't NOT talk about it." -------------- BOSNIA, AFGHANISTAN -------------- ¶8. (SBU) Defense ministers will join foreign ministers for a discussion of Bosnia, focusing on ways to move forward with the EU's Operation Althea there, and including a briefing by Carl Bildt on the Butmir talks. Meanwhile, a joint foreign and development ministers meeting, together with UN Special Representative in Afghanistan Kai Eide, will tackle the role of development in implementing the EU's recently adopted Afghanistan strategy, with a special focus on supporting democratic institution building. -------------- BELARUS -------------- ¶9. (C) Following up on the discussion on EU sanctions on Belarus reported in ref B, Carmona said he now expected that both EU sanctions and their suspension would be extended to October 2010. While stressing the GOF's view that sanctions had not resulted in significant democratic reform, Carmona said it was too early to lift sanctions altogether. He added that the October timeline was the result of a compromise between a strong UK position and other member states that wanted to let sanctions expire in March 2010. However, he pointed out that it is a difficult timeline for further discussion of sanctions since it will come soon before the early 2011 presidential elections in Belarus. Thus, EU member states will not be able to take electoral reform - or a lack thereof - into account in making their decision. Additionally, either extending the sanctions or lifting them could send an unintended message to Lukashenka that could adversely affect his willingness to carry through with electoral reform. RIVKIN