FRENCH EXPECTATIONS FOR NOVEMBER 16-17 GAERC

C O N F I D E N T I A L PARIS 001511

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/13/2019
TAGS: PREL EUN RS UP SO BK AF BO FR
SUBJECT: FRENCH EXPECTATIONS FOR NOVEMBER 16-17 GAERC

REF: A. EUR/ERA EMAIL - 11/09/09

B. PARIS 1494

C. PARIS 1418

Classified By: Political Minister-Counselor Kathy Allegrone, Reasons 1.
4 (b),(d).


1. (SBU) SUMMARY: On November 13, Deputy Chief of the MFA's
Common Foreign and Security Policy office Mathieu Carmona
previewed French expectations for the November 16-17 GAERC.
Foreign ministers will prepare for the upcoming EU-Russia
summit by reviewing the Corfu process, the situation in the
North Caucasus region, and Georgia. They will also discuss
the need to encourage greater political responsibility in
Ukraine and plans for a new EU "Crisis Management Concept"
for Somalia. A pro forma discussion of the Middle East peace
process is expected, and defense ministers and development
ministers will join foreign ministers for a review of,
respectively, Bosnia and Afghanistan. Carmona also followed
up on the latest expectations for Belarus sanctions (see ref
B),where he predicts an extension of both the sanctions and
their suspension until October 2010. END SUMMARY.

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RUSSIA
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2. (C) Carmona said foreign ministers will use the November
16 dinner for a wide-ranging discussion of EU-Russia
relations in advance of the November 18 EU-Russia summit
meeting. He said that although the summit will result in few
deliverables, it will be a good chance to advance dialogue
towards areas where cooperation is possible. Carmona said at
the GAERC, foreign ministers will discuss European security,
where the French will express their viewpoint that the Corfu
process should be allowed to continue and that it is
important to avoid replicating discussions taking place at
the OSCE in other forums. Carmona said "we don't want to
start again from zero," and stressed that the Corfu process
already provided a mechanism for dealing with European
security issues.


3. (C) Foreign ministers will also discuss the worrying human
rights situation in the North Caucasus region, which
according to Carmona is contributing to turning the region
into a "powder keg." He admitted that this was not currently
on the agenda for the EU-Russia summit, but added that recent
positive comments by President Medvedev on human rights may
give hope for improvement. Ministers will also discuss
Georgia, with Carmona saying that while the November 11
Geneva talks did not result in significant progress, the mere
fact that all sides were able to exchange views was helpful
in easing tensions.


4. (SBU) Russia's role on the international scene will also
be discussed, especially regarding Iran and Afghanistan.
Carmona said the EU will be closely coordinating with the
U.S. when dealing with Russia on these issues. On
Afghanistan, Carmona said it seems that Russia has the
capacity and probably the will to provide concrete
assistance, and engaging the Russian leadership to do so
would serve also to encourage a more responsible Russian
attitude to global affairs generally.

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UKRAINE
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5. (C) Carmona said Ukraine will be the main topic for
discussion on November 17. French State Secretary for
European Affairs Pierre Lellouche is visiting Ukraine on
November 13, and he will brief GAERC participants on his
discussions with Ukrainian leaders. His message, according
to Carmona, has been that the Ukrainians must not let narrow
political concerns prevent them from pursuing their national
interest. The economic crisis hit Ukraine hard, but the
Ukrainian leadership has greatly exacerbated the effects of
the crisis through actions such as the recent law increasing
wages and pensions. Concerned that the crisis in Ukraine can
have repercussions throughout Europe, not least if Ukrainian
inability to pay Russia for gas shipments precipitates
another shut off of gas shipments this winter, Carmona said
EU leaders will make a strong push for Ukraine to be more
economically responsible both at and on the margins of the
December 4 EU-Ukraine summit. However, Carmona added that
given domestic political pressures in Ukraine in the
presidential elections in January, the EU had to be realistic
on what it could expect. He also said that EU leaders would
stress to Russia during the EU-Russia summit that any cutoff
of gas shipments to Europe would do yet more damage to
Russia's reputation as a reliable source of energy.
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SOMALIA
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6. (C) The discussion of Somalia will focus on a review of
the counterpiracy Operation Atalanta, increasing cooperation
with AMISOM, and brainstorming on how the EU can become more
involved in training TFG troops. Regarding the latter,
Carmona said foreign ministers would discuss setting up an EU
"Crisis Management Concept" (CMC) to take on greater
responsibility for the training mission. Carmona said he had
not seen opposition to this measure based on cost, since he
does not expect it to be expensive, but added the UK had been
reticent, and is demanding that language specifying that "the
CMC does not necessarily imply a certain course of action" be
added to the document approving its creation. Carmona
claimed he did not understand the British reluctance and
asked - half-jokingly - whether the USG could approach the UK
on this issue. He also said that the EU, or individual
member states which might participate in the training
mission, may ask the United States for specific assistance in
logistics and equipment.

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MIDDLE EAST
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7. (C) Carmona said the Swedish presidency has insisted on an
agenda item on the Middle East peace process. He said that
although he did not expect much substantive discussion, he
said the ongoing blockage of the peace process had led the
Swedes to use the logic that "we can't NOT talk about it."

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BOSNIA, AFGHANISTAN
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8. (SBU) Defense ministers will join foreign ministers for a
discussion of Bosnia, focusing on ways to move forward with
the EU's Operation Althea there, and including a briefing by
Carl Bildt on the Butmir talks. Meanwhile, a joint foreign
and development ministers meeting, together with UN Special
Representative in Afghanistan Kai Eide, will tackle the role
of development in implementing the EU's recently adopted
Afghanistan strategy, with a special focus on supporting
democratic institution building.

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BELARUS
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9. (C) Following up on the discussion on EU sanctions on
Belarus reported in ref B, Carmona said he now expected that
both EU sanctions and their suspension would be extended to
October 2010. While stressing the GOF's view that sanctions
had not resulted in significant democratic reform, Carmona
said it was too early to lift sanctions altogether. He added
that the October timeline was the result of a compromise
between a strong UK position and other member states that
wanted to let sanctions expire in March 2010. However, he
pointed out that it is a difficult timeline for further
discussion of sanctions since it will come soon before the
early 2011 presidential elections in Belarus. Thus, EU
member states will not be able to take electoral reform - or
a lack thereof - into account in making their decision.
Additionally, either extending the sanctions or lifting them
could send an unintended message to Lukashenka that could
adversely affect his willingness to carry through with
electoral reform.
RIVKIN