FRENCH EXPECTATIONS FOR OCTOBER 26-27 GAERC

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 PARIS 001427 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/23/2019 TAGS: PREL EUN IR BK AL MK GR AF PK GV CE MD UZ FR SUBJECT: FRENCH EXPECTATIONS FOR OCTOBER 26-27 GAERC REF: EUR/ERA EMAIL - 10/17/09 Classified By: Political Counselor Andrew Young, Reasons 1.4 (b),(d). ¶1. (SBU) On October 23, Mathieu Carmona, Deputy Director for EU Common Foreign and Security Policy, provided the following preview for the October 26-27 GAERC meeting of EU foreign ministers: -------------- IRAN -------------- ¶2. (C) Carmona said much of an October 26 dinner would be devoted to a discussion of Iran, which would include a briefing by French FM Kouchner on the negotiations in Vienna on the uranium enrichment deal, whose outcome should be known by that point. Carmona says that while France is cautiously optimistic about this particular stage of talks, Kouchner plans to stress to his European counterparts the need to take stock of negotiations "by the end of the year" with a view towards implementing tough sanctions, even in the absence of a UN resolution. However, the GOF does not think that EU sanctions are likely without UN cover. -------------- BALKANS -------------- ¶3. (C) The Western Balkans will be the other subject of the dinner discussion, but according to Carmona will only cover Bosnia and Albania. On Bosnia, Swedish FM Bildt will brief ministers on the recent meetings in Butmir, followed by a general discussion of how to move forward. France is anxious to see a decision to transform the Office of the High Representative into an EU Special Representative (EUSR) at the November meeting of the Peace Implementation Council, a move the GOF has been pushing for several months. Carmona said France supports constitutional reform in Bosnia, and thinks that EU accession will be impossible without it, but said it should not be a condition for transferring to an EUSR. Carmona said ministers will also discuss forwarding Albania's accession application to the European Commission, but added that he expects Germany to continue its opposition. Though there will be no discussion of Macedonia at the GAERC, Carmona mentioned that the GOF also supports the Nimetz process as a means to finding a solution to the name dispute with Greece, but said that France has little clarity on Athens's intentions following the Greek elections. -------------- AFGHANISTAN/PAKISTAN -------------- ¶4. (C) Afghanistan will be the first topic on the agenda for October 27, and ministers will review the document prepared by the presidency on future support. The Commission will also give a presentation options for an observer mission for the second round of the elections. Carmona said one concrete outcome will be a conclusion on combining the jobs of EU Special Representative and European Commission delegate in order to give the Special Representative access to the financial and technical capabilities of the Commission to better coordinate EU activities in Afghanistan. According to Carmona, the ministers will then have a general discussion of the political and security situation in Pakistan. When asked about specific plans for further support, Carmona said that, while the EU has the funds to contribute, distributing the funds effectively has been problematic. He added that the EU would remain committed to Pakistan, however, as evidenced by Spain's decision to organize an EU-Pakistan summit during its January - June 2010 presidency. -------------- GUINEA -------------- ¶5. (C) Carmona said ministers would move forward with a visa ban and assets sanctions against the top 40 or so members of Guinea's ruling junta. He noted however that most of the junta members' foreign assets are thought to be in Morocco, not EU member states. Carmona said France had pushed hard for this action, with support from the Swedish presidency. (NOTE: In a separate October 22 meeting, MFA DAS-equivalent PARIS 00001427 002 OF 002 for West Africa Laurent Bigot previewed this information and said the EU will also impose an arms embargo against Guinea. Post reminded Bigot that the USG would need precise and detailed bio data in order to consider adding individuals to any list we might produce. Bigot said good information is available for those to be listed by the EU. END NOTE.) -------------- -------------- OTHER ISSUES: MIDDLE EAST, SRI LANKA, MOLDOVA, UZBEKISTAN -------------- -------------- ¶6. (C) While Middle East peace was a separate agenda item, Carmona did not expect anything new from the discussion since European foreign ministers will be waiting for Secretary Clinton's report on the peace process. The UK and Denmark have asked for a discussion on internally displaced peoples in Sri Lanka, and Carmona said there will be a long conclusion detailing the EU's support for a quick and satisfactory resolution of this problem. Romania has also asked for a discussion on the possibility of financial support to Moldova, although Carmona said he was not optimistic that Moldova could quickly meet the required standards for significant EU assistance. Finally, Carmona said a conclusion would be issued lifting all remaining sanctions on Uzbekistan, completing a process that was begun several months ago. -------------- -- GENERAL AFFAIRS: THE EU EXTERNAL ACTION SERVICE -------------- -- ¶7. (SBU) Carmona said that under General Affairs, the Swedish presidency would give a report on the European External Action Service (EEAS),one of the institutional changes contained in the Lisbon Treaty. He said the report would be given to the European Council for recommendations, with a view towards obtaining member state approval in the spring of ¶2010. Carmona said that France's priority is for the Council to maintain strong control over the EEAS. Even though it will be run in cooperation with the Commission, Carmona said the GOF wants to ensure that the EEAS will not be "communitized" and will have strong national oversight. He added EU diplomats seemed interested in serving in the EEAS and that most member states were planning to second the "best of the best." RIVKIN