FRENCH MFA ON YEMEN, SYRIA, IRAQ AND QATAR

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 PARIS 001335
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/15/2019
TAGS: PGOV PREL SY QA YM LE IZ FR
SUBJECT: FRENCH MFA ON YEMEN, SYRIA, IRAQ AND QATAR
Classified By: Political Counselor Andrew R. Young for reasons 1.4 (b),
(d).

1. (C) SUMMARY: French MFA Middle East Director (A/S
equivalent) Patrice Paoli told DAS Janet Sanderson September
11 that the French have grown very concerned about the
increasingly precarious political and security situation in
Yemen. As part of a bid to help re-stabilize Yemen, they
plan to boost their development aid and hope to exchange
information more regularly with the USG. Paoli said the
French have heard reports that the Houthi rebels in northern
Yemen receive support from Iran and Libya, but the GOF has
not seen evidence to support the allegations. The French do
worry, however, about the evidence they have seen of the
increasing strength of Al Qaeda in Yemen. And they continue
to support European Union (EU) calls for a ceasefire between
government and rebel forces in Yemen, due to concern about
the casualties and displacement caused by the conflict.
Paoli also said that France plans to continue to engage
Syria, and reported that Syrian Foreign Minister Muallim will
visit Paris at the end of September. In addition, the French
remain committed to improving their ties to and support for
Iraq. Finally, Paoli said the French were angry that Qatari
Prime Minister Al-Thani conveyed the impression that France
supports Qatari efforts to mediate among conflicting parties
in Lebanon. In fact, the GOF seeks to remain detached and
neutral as Lebanon forms its new government, according to
Paoli. END SUMMARY.
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YEMEN
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2. (C) Paoli told DAS Sanderson the French have grown very
concerned about the increasingly precarious political and
security situation in Yemen. As part of a bid to help
re-stabilize Yemen, they plan to boost their development aid
and hope to exchange information more regularly with the USG.
Unfortunately, the French currently lack money to invest
significantly in Yemen, Paoli said; they have had to halt
joint projects with the World Bank and the Kuwaitis due to
budget constraints. Only their electricity development
projects have continued. To make up for budget shortfalls,
France has sought to increase its collaboration with regional
partners. Currently, the GOF is asking Kuwait to increase
its financial support for the Yemeni government; Paoli
himself will soon travel to Kuwait City to discuss how
French-Kuwaiti collaboration could contribute to stability in
Yemen. The GOF also seeks to increase its involvement in
training the Yemeni military to fight terrorists, pirates,
and human traffickers. French partners in Europe --
including the Swedish EU Presidency, Britain, and Germany --
are all ready to increase aid to Yemen, Paoli reported. To
make a real impact, however, Paoli said, "we also need more
information about what’s happening now on the ground." He
said it would be very helpful to have more exchanges and
discussions between the U.S. and French Embassies in Yemen.

3. (C) Paoli said the French have heard reports that the
Houthi rebels in northern Yemen receive support from Iran and
Libya. The Saudis and several other Arab countries have told
the French for months about a Libyan role, Paoli reported,
though he warned that the GOF has not/not seen proof of
Libyan involvement. Nor have the French seen conclusive
evidence of an Iranian role, though the Egyptians and Saudis
insist Iran has a presence in northern Yemen. The French
have struggled to find an ideological basis for Iranian
involvement. "The Houthis have no message linked to Iran,"
Paoli argued. "The Houthis have not had a clear political
message in a long time." Here Paoli stressed again that the
French have limited information overall about the northern
conflict. In particular, they are interested in U.S. views
about Houthi goals and troop numbers.

4. (C) Regional pressure for a ceasefire is intensifying,
Paoli said, as the Gulf states press Yemeni President Saleh
to negotiate with the Houthi. For the Gulf, stability is a
priority, Paoli said; for France, Al Qaeda is a priority.
The French have seen evidence indicating that Al Qaeda has
developed a significantly stronger presence in Yemen.
Nonetheless, France supports the EU demand that the
Government of Yemen put a stop to the war in the north. Many
European countries oppose the fighting up north, Paoli
explained, because of the casualties and displacement it
creates. They are pressing the Yemeni government to allow
access for NGOs and humanitarian assistance. They believe
the Yemeni government has not chosen the best way to restore
order. "The government has to fight," he said, "but is this
the right way, or the right fight?" In southern Yemen, Paoli
noted, government corruption has had a corrosive impact, in
particular with regard to the land controlled by Saleh’s
entourage. DAS Sanderson stated that the USG would use
PARIS 00001335 002 OF 002
increased U.S. aid to Yemen to encourage and support reforms
that would address some core concerns, including corruption.
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SYRIA
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5. (C) Paoli reported that France plans to continue to
engage Syria, and cited the impending visit of Syrian Foreign
Minister Muallim at the end of September: "Our view is that
we must continue to engage Syria, out of necessity." Paoli
acknowledged that Syria has played a negative role in the
Lebanese government formation process. "We want to see
positive behavior from Syria, but you never get much if you
corner them," he said. "They need to be reassured." It is
not a good idea, for instance, Paoli offered, to leave Syria
out of Special Envoy Mitchell’s visit to the region.
Moreover, he said the French wonder if Syria needed to
interfere in order for the government formation process to
fail in Lebanon. Michel Aoun does not need Syria’s help to
make decisions, Paoli argued; "the Lebanese fail on their own
-- they are their own best enemy." The French also believe
Iran has had a negative impact on the government formation
process. "According to many accounts, Iran is playing their
hand" in Lebanon, Paoli said, noting that we cannot only
assign blame to the Syrians.
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IRAQ
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6. (C) The French remain committed to improving their ties
to and support for Iraq, according to Paoli. The GOF want
Iraqi sovereignty to be "fully restored," but "not at the
expense of Kuwait." Since it is difficult to solve the
Iraq-Kuwait border dispute right now, Paoli said, the GOF
supports delaying attempts to resolve the conflict until
after national elections in Iraq. Prior to the elections,
the French expect Maliki to engage in "dangerous demagogy."
He will try to show his toughness, Paoli predicted. The
French approach to such rhetoric will be pragmatic, Paoli
admitted; they will support "whoever leads." In the
meantime, the GOF will continue to deepen its ties to Iraq by
taking various steps, such as increasing the number of
high-level visits. They expect Iraqi President Talabani to
come to Paris in November, and they have extended an
invitation to Iraqi Vice President Hashimi. The GOF will
also increase government financing for French and Iraqi
companies, Paoli reported. These companies will not,
however, receive security support or any form of protection
from the GOF. "They are on their own," Paoli asserted. In
addition, the French have opened a Consulate in Basra, and
welcomed Iraqi students to France.
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QATAR
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7. (C) Paoli said the French were angry that Qatari Prime
Minister Al-Thani announced his offer to host another
Lebanese mediation effort in Doha immediately following his
September 10 meeting with President Sarkozy in Paris. This
announcement gave the unfortunate impression that France
supports this effort, Paoli said. In fact, the GOF seeks to
remain detached and neutral, he explained, as Lebanon forms
its new government. As to U.S.-Qatari relations, Paoli
estimated that Qatari leaders still feel the sting of being
left out of President Bush’s visit to the Gulf, during which
he visited nearly every country in the region, except Qatar.

8. (U) DAS Sanderson has cleared this cable.
RIVKIN