FRENCH MFA ON YEMEN, SYRIA, IRAQ AND QATAR

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 PARIS 001335 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/15/2019 TAGS: PGOV PREL SY QA YM LE IZ FR SUBJECT: FRENCH MFA ON YEMEN, SYRIA, IRAQ AND QATAR Classified By: Political Counselor Andrew R. Young for reasons 1.4 (b), (d). ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: French MFA Middle East Director (A/S equivalent) Patrice Paoli told DAS Janet Sanderson September 11 that the French have grown very concerned about the increasingly precarious political and security situation in Yemen. As part of a bid to help re-stabilize Yemen, they plan to boost their development aid and hope to exchange information more regularly with the USG. Paoli said the French have heard reports that the Houthi rebels in northern Yemen receive support from Iran and Libya, but the GOF has not seen evidence to support the allegations. The French do worry, however, about the evidence they have seen of the increasing strength of Al Qaeda in Yemen. And they continue to support European Union (EU) calls for a ceasefire between government and rebel forces in Yemen, due to concern about the casualties and displacement caused by the conflict. Paoli also said that France plans to continue to engage Syria, and reported that Syrian Foreign Minister Muallim will visit Paris at the end of September. In addition, the French remain committed to improving their ties to and support for Iraq. Finally, Paoli said the French were angry that Qatari Prime Minister Al-Thani conveyed the impression that France supports Qatari efforts to mediate among conflicting parties in Lebanon. In fact, the GOF seeks to remain detached and neutral as Lebanon forms its new government, according to Paoli. END SUMMARY. -------------- YEMEN -------------- ¶2. (C) Paoli told DAS Sanderson the French have grown very concerned about the increasingly precarious political and security situation in Yemen. As part of a bid to help re-stabilize Yemen, they plan to boost their development aid and hope to exchange information more regularly with the USG. Unfortunately, the French currently lack money to invest significantly in Yemen, Paoli said; they have had to halt joint projects with the World Bank and the Kuwaitis due to budget constraints. Only their electricity development projects have continued. To make up for budget shortfalls, France has sought to increase its collaboration with regional partners. Currently, the GOF is asking Kuwait to increase its financial support for the Yemeni government; Paoli himself will soon travel to Kuwait City to discuss how French-Kuwaiti collaboration could contribute to stability in Yemen. The GOF also seeks to increase its involvement in training the Yemeni military to fight terrorists, pirates, and human traffickers. French partners in Europe -- including the Swedish EU Presidency, Britain, and Germany -- are all ready to increase aid to Yemen, Paoli reported. To make a real impact, however, Paoli said, "we also need more information about what’s happening now on the ground." He said it would be very helpful to have more exchanges and discussions between the U.S. and French Embassies in Yemen. ¶3. (C) Paoli said the French have heard reports that the Houthi rebels in northern Yemen receive support from Iran and Libya. The Saudis and several other Arab countries have told the French for months about a Libyan role, Paoli reported, though he warned that the GOF has not/not seen proof of Libyan involvement. Nor have the French seen conclusive evidence of an Iranian role, though the Egyptians and Saudis insist Iran has a presence in northern Yemen. The French have struggled to find an ideological basis for Iranian involvement. "The Houthis have no message linked to Iran," Paoli argued. "The Houthis have not had a clear political message in a long time." Here Paoli stressed again that the French have limited information overall about the northern conflict. In particular, they are interested in U.S. views about Houthi goals and troop numbers. ¶4. (C) Regional pressure for a ceasefire is intensifying, Paoli said, as the Gulf states press Yemeni President Saleh to negotiate with the Houthi. For the Gulf, stability is a priority, Paoli said; for France, Al Qaeda is a priority. The French have seen evidence indicating that Al Qaeda has developed a significantly stronger presence in Yemen. Nonetheless, France supports the EU demand that the Government of Yemen put a stop to the war in the north. Many European countries oppose the fighting up north, Paoli explained, because of the casualties and displacement it creates. They are pressing the Yemeni government to allow access for NGOs and humanitarian assistance. They believe the Yemeni government has not chosen the best way to restore order. "The government has to fight," he said, "but is this the right way, or the right fight?" In southern Yemen, Paoli noted, government corruption has had a corrosive impact, in particular with regard to the land controlled by Saleh’s entourage. DAS Sanderson stated that the USG would use PARIS 00001335 002 OF 002 increased U.S. aid to Yemen to encourage and support reforms that would address some core concerns, including corruption. -------------- SYRIA -------------- ¶5. (C) Paoli reported that France plans to continue to engage Syria, and cited the impending visit of Syrian Foreign Minister Muallim at the end of September: "Our view is that we must continue to engage Syria, out of necessity." Paoli acknowledged that Syria has played a negative role in the Lebanese government formation process. "We want to see positive behavior from Syria, but you never get much if you corner them," he said. "They need to be reassured." It is not a good idea, for instance, Paoli offered, to leave Syria out of Special Envoy Mitchell’s visit to the region. Moreover, he said the French wonder if Syria needed to interfere in order for the government formation process to fail in Lebanon. Michel Aoun does not need Syria’s help to make decisions, Paoli argued; "the Lebanese fail on their own -- they are their own best enemy." The French also believe Iran has had a negative impact on the government formation process. "According to many accounts, Iran is playing their hand" in Lebanon, Paoli said, noting that we cannot only assign blame to the Syrians. -------------- IRAQ -------------- ¶6. (C) The French remain committed to improving their ties to and support for Iraq, according to Paoli. The GOF want Iraqi sovereignty to be "fully restored," but "not at the expense of Kuwait." Since it is difficult to solve the Iraq-Kuwait border dispute right now, Paoli said, the GOF supports delaying attempts to resolve the conflict until after national elections in Iraq. Prior to the elections, the French expect Maliki to engage in "dangerous demagogy." He will try to show his toughness, Paoli predicted. The French approach to such rhetoric will be pragmatic, Paoli admitted; they will support "whoever leads." In the meantime, the GOF will continue to deepen its ties to Iraq by taking various steps, such as increasing the number of high-level visits. They expect Iraqi President Talabani to come to Paris in November, and they have extended an invitation to Iraqi Vice President Hashimi. The GOF will also increase government financing for French and Iraqi companies, Paoli reported. These companies will not, however, receive security support or any form of protection from the GOF. "They are on their own," Paoli asserted. In addition, the French have opened a Consulate in Basra, and welcomed Iraqi students to France. -------------- QATAR -------------- ¶7. (C) Paoli said the French were angry that Qatari Prime Minister Al-Thani announced his offer to host another Lebanese mediation effort in Doha immediately following his September 10 meeting with President Sarkozy in Paris. This announcement gave the unfortunate impression that France supports this effort, Paoli said. In fact, the GOF seeks to remain detached and neutral, he explained, as Lebanon forms its new government. As to U.S.-Qatari relations, Paoli estimated that Qatari leaders still feel the sting of being left out of President Bush’s visit to the Gulf, during which he visited nearly every country in the region, except Qatar. ¶8. (U) DAS Sanderson has cleared this cable. RIVKIN