DRC/RWANDA: ENTERING A POSITIVE NEW PHASE?

C O N F I D E N T I A L PARIS 000128 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/28/2019 TAGS: PREL PINS PHUM MOPS CG RW FR SUBJECT: DRC/RWANDA: ENTERING A POSITIVE NEW PHASE? REF: KINSHASA 78 Classified By: Political Counselor Andrew Young, 1.4 (b/d). ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: MFA Great Lakes desk officer Laurent Chevallier on January 26 said that recent developments in the DRC and Rwanda (Nkunda's arrest, GOR pursuit of the FDLR in the DRC, Uganda's operations in the DRC against the Lord's Resistance Army/LRA) were very positive signs that the broader set of conflicts in the region was perhaps moving towards peaceful resolution. While unusually optimistic, he cautioned, however, that all of these developments were quite recent and that reversals were possible across the board. Chevallier anticipated that recent events would enliven discussion at the February 6 Great Lakes Contact Group meeting to take place in Paris on February 6. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (C) MFA Great Lakes desk officer Laurent Chevallier on January 26 reviewed recent events in the region. He was notably more upbeat then usual, reflecting what he described as a possibly "historic turn of events" that could mean the end of "everyone turning around in circles and going nowhere for years." The confluence of events -- DRC authorization for Rwandan forces to pursue the FDLR in DRC, the "arrest" of Nkunda, the move to absorb CNDP forces into the FARDC, and, separately, the DRC's willingness to let Ugandan forces pursue the LRA in the DRC -- perhaps signaled that the regional actors had, finally, stepped back, examined the situation, recognized the futility of the endless cycle of violence and conflict in which they had been engaged for years, and decided that they should work to secure their shared interests rather than remain in a perpetual state of warfare. Such a view might be too optimistic, Chevallier conceded, but he said that recent events were "unprecedented" with respect to the violence of the last 15 years. ¶3. (C) Chevallier said that French information about the sequence of events and what prompted them was quite sketchy. He speculated, however, that, in addition to fatigue resulting from their many years of confrontation, both the DRC and Rwanda viewed Nkunda's rise, his suggestion that his ambitions went far beyond protecting Tutsi interests in eastern DRC, and the uncontrolled potential for destabilization he represented, were enough for the DRC and Rwanda to come to rough agreement. In Chevallier's view, the bargain consisted of the DRC's allowing Rwandan forces to operate in the DRC against the FDLR. In return, the DRC sought Rwandan support to rein in Nkunda. Chevallier thought that Nkunda balked at any attempt to limit his power and independence, whereupon the Rwandans arrested him and effectively took him out of the game. "The fact that his arrest took place so cleanly and efficiently shows that he was all along under Rwanda's control," Chevallier observed. ¶4. (C) While all of these indications were positive, Chevallier said that "we are a long way from being out of the woods." with reversals and setbacks possible at any moment over any issue, given the region's complex history and the pervasive sense of mistrust. Snapping his fingers, he reminded that this was a region where one incident could lead to "hundreds of thousands of deaths in a few weeks, just like that." Still, Chevallier believed that a new phase in the broader regional conflict had begun, and that this presented rare opportunities to advance the peace process. ¶5. (C) Chevallier said that these recent developments should provide fruitful points of discussion at the February 6 Great Lakes Contact Group meeting to be held at the MFA, a meeting that he was anticipating with a higher degree of expectation than had previously been the case. PEKALA