FRENCH EXPECTATIONS FOR SEPTEMBER 14-15 GAERC

C O N F I D E N T I A L PARIS 001243 C O R R E C T E D C O P Y (CHANGED CLASSIFICATION PARA 3 - 5) NOFORN SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/11/2019 TAGS: PREL IR GG SL FR SUBJECT: FRENCH EXPECTATIONS FOR SEPTEMBER 14-15 GAERC MEETING REF: A. PARIS 1207 ¶B. PARIS POINTS FROM AUGUST 29 2009 Classified By: Political Counselor Andrew Young for reasons 1.4(b) and (d). ¶1. (C) On September 11, Mathieu Carmona, Deputy Director for the EU Common Foreign and Security Policy, provided the following preview for the September 14-15 GAERC meeting of EU Foreign Ministers: -------------- AFGHANISTAN -------------- ¶2. (C) Carmona expected that there would be a short discussion about the Afghan elections and he referred us to the EU statement released yesterday which urged all parties to respect the process in place and wait for the final results. However, he noted that, following initial discussions at last week's Gymnich meeting, the next substantive discussion of Afghanistan should take place at the October GAERC, during which the EU will try to refine priorities and strategy. The goal in October will be to select priorities and make the EU effort in Afghanistan more operational and target resources where they would have the most impact. Carmona also expected that Afghanistan would be further discussed when leaders meet at the UNGA in Spetember. -------------- IRAN -------------- ¶3. (C/NF) Carmona stated that Iran would be discussed at the FM dinner on the first night with no notetakers present to ensure a full discussion (Note: Embassy Paris understands that someone from the Secretariat will be present to draft a readout of the meeting, but without making any attribution to the respective foreign ministers' statements). Paris believes that the political situation in Iran has still not been resolved as the current regime lacks legitimacy, fractures are appearing among the political factions, and harassment of opposition candidate Moussavi is continuing. At the same time, there is a new generation of educated Iranians who are more open and less afraid of the west that may rise up against the regime at any time. The fragile and divided political situation makes it difficult to find a strong, legitimate leader with whom to negotiate on the nuclear portfolio. ¶4. (C/NF) At the GAERC, the French will also raise the issue of Clothilde Reiss and their other dual national employee who remain in Iran, albeit released on bail. Paris considers them to be "hostages" and has been very pleased with EU solidarity to date. They hope for the same support when the final verdict is rendered, as France considers anything less than a total acquittal to be an unacceptable outcome. Should the GOI convict the French citizens, Paris wants the EU to be prepared to take combined action on certain consequences, such as limiting high-level Iranian visits or on visa issuance by EU countries. Carmona said that the Swedish Presidency is also anxious to raise the issue of human rights in Iran during the discussion. ¶5. (C/NF) On sanctions, Carmona said that the French position has been clearly outlined in President Sarkozy's recent speech to French Ambassadors (ref B). Sarkozy is demanding that Iran respond to the EU3 PLUS 3 by the end of September. If Iran does not respond, France is willing to support a new UN Security Council Resolution and stricter sanctions targeting the energy sector, insurance and the financial system. Carmona noted that there is currently a good EU consensus on sanctions, as several countries budged from previously inflexible positions following the debacle of Iranian elections. The difficulty remains obtaining the support of Russia and China. In addition, Carmona insisted that our efforts must be credible to Israel or "something will happen." This is why the French are pushing for a high-level meeting on the margins of the G20 summit. He added that even if Russia and China are not on board, the EU, under the Swedish Presidency, is willing to push for combined European action with out them. The difficulty will be whether other countries, such as Malaysia, simply fill the vacuum left by departing European firms. -------------- SOUTH CAUCASUS -------------- ¶6. (C) Carmona said that he expected the European Commission would be given the mandate to negotiate on the commercial and visa accords with the three countries of the South Caucasus at the September GAERC. The only outstanding question would be the type of political conditionality some EU countries would want to impose on the accords, such as requiring improvements in the areas of rule of law or human rights. On Georgia, the French advocate a more urgent approach -- they want to make rapid progress to reinforce the positive aspects of Georgian citizenship to those living in the separatist areas of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Once those citizens see the commercial and citizen benefits accruing to Georgia, it will hopefully encourage the two breakaway regimes and populations to cooperate more with Georgia. Carmona said that FM Kouchner had drafted a letter to the EU External Relations and Commercial Commissioners to urge them to intensify the preparations for negotiating the two types of accords with all three countries so that the results can be presented in November. -------------- SRI LANKA -------------- ¶7. (C) On Sri Lanka, Carmona and said that France supports investigation into the inflammatory video and is waiting for the report on human rights to be completed. Carmona expected this to be further discussed during the October GAERC meeting. Additional points on Sri Lanka will be reported septel. RIVKIN