SCENESETTER FOR A/S GORDON'S SEPTEMBER 10-11, 2009

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 04 PARIS 001233 SIPDIS NOFORN FOR A/S GORDON FROM AMBASSADOR RIVKIN: MOSCOW FOR A/S GORDON CONTROL OFFICER MATTHEW EUSSEN E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/08/2019 TAGS: PREL PGOV MARR MOPS NATO AF RU IR FR SUBJECT: SCENESETTER FOR A/S GORDON'S SEPTEMBER 10-11, 2009 TRIP TO PARIS REF: A. PARIS POINTS OF AUGUST 27 ¶B. PARIS 410: SCENESETTER FOR THE PRESIDENT'S BILATERAL MEETING WITH PRESIDENT SARKOZY ¶C. PARIS 1206 AMBASSADOR PRESSES FM KOUCHNER ON UNESCO DG RACE Classified By: Ambassador Charles H. Rivkin for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) . ¶1. (C) Summary. Phil: We look forward to supporting your participation in the annual German Marshall Fund Conference on Transatlantic Trends and your efforts to press forward the priorities we share with the French. The bilateral relationship has seldom been better or more cooperative. The French are our partners in nearly every matter of foreign policy significance, with the exception of Turkey,s entry into the EU. The President's two visits in April and June helped cement an already positive and productive agenda. ¶2. (C) Summary continued: President Sarkozy remains keen to establish himself as the leader in Europe and a primary partner with the U.S. On August 26, President Sarkozy made his annual address to French Ambassadors, laying out his foreign policy priorities for the coming year (ref A). He and his government are currently focused on the upcoming meetings at the UN and in Pittsburgh. On almost all major issues, President Sarkozy believes time is not on our side. He has argued repeatedly that if Western nations do not address global challenges proactively and with a sense of urgency, then crises and extremists will dictate our agenda. For Sarkozy, urgent action often entails a multilateral summit; he strongly believes that it takes political leaders to slice through the "Gordian knots" that bureaucracies often cannot resolve (reftel B). While we generally agree about the need to act collectively, we have conveyed to the French that we perceive quickness of action (especially in the form of a summit) as a means to achieve our aims, not an end in itself, and so we take urgent steps when necessary and a more deliberate approach when that would be more effective in attaining our goals. Be sure to raise: * Our strategy on dealing with French concerns about disarmament. * Our differing approaches on how to deal with Turkey. Watch out for: * French proposals for an Iran conference on the margins of the G20 meeting. * French proposals for a Middle East Peace Summit in the fall under the auspices of the Union for the Mediterranean End Summary. ¶3. (U) You will meet with National Security Advisor Jean-David Levitte, who is likely to be interested in your views on working with Russia, the non-proliferation discussions at UNGA, and Iran, Afghanistan, and the Middle East. He may also want to discuss the upcoming Pittsburgh Summit. You will also have lunch with a number of French officials, led by new PolDir Jacques Audibert, who will be interested in many of the same issues. ¶4. (C/NF) TURKEY: President Sarkozy publicly opposes Turkey's entry into the EU and has blocked opening of five chapters that pre-suppose EU membership while allowing progress on other chapters to foster closer EU-Turkish links. Instead of membership, Sarkozy prefers that the EU and Turkey develop a "privileged partnership" and his office has tasked the Ministry of Foreign Affairs with developing a strategy paper to flesh out French thinking on what such a partnership would mean. ¶5. (C) RUSSIA: French officials will be interested in hearing about your trip to Moscow and discussing how the United States plans to move forward in working with Russia. President Sarkozy called for better EU-Russia relations in 2010 in his August 26 address to French Ambassadors. The French claim to see Moscow as a partner rather than an adversary, and Russian President Medvedev as a more cooperative interlocutor than his predecessor. The GOF seeks to work with the USG to develop a common approach to Russia, especially on issues like the Conventional Forces in Europe (CFE) Treaty. In general these are positive initiatives, but the impulsive French president is also known to spring new ideas on the U.S. and his European allies, such as last year's proposal for a summit to discuss a new European PARIS 00001233 002 OF 004 security architecture. Overall, French policy toward Russia reflects the belief that engagement with Moscow is the best way to influence Russian behavior and elicit cooperation on European security, an area in which Sarkozy intends to lead. Other French priorities for Franco-Russian strategic dialogue include: promoting economic cooperation and trade, with an emphasis on economic interdependence; maintaining French influence on EU-Russia relations; encouraging Russia to work through institutions with set rules; supporting Russian actions in public while taking a more honest approach in private meetings; supporting Medvedev and tolerating Putin. The French will also be interested in your views on next steps with Georgia and Ukraine. ¶6. (S/NF) NON-PROLIFERATION AND DISARMAMENT: With preparations for the May 2010 Review Conference of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) underway, France is eager to coordinate with the U.S. and other P-3 and P-5 partners on establishing common positions on proliferation and deterrence to prevent countries like Iran from establishing nuclear capabilities. They are wary of UK and U.S. pronouncements that reflect support for a world without nuclear weapons, as nuclear deterrence is a cornerstone of French defense strategy. The September 24 summit at UNGA, hosted by President Obama, is the first test for P-3 and P-5 unity and the French remain wedded to including specific mention of Iran and North Korea in the text, and they consider this inclusion a "red line." Paris supports the Fissile Material Cut-off Treaty (FMCT) but is not willing for the treaty to address the question of existing stockpiles. ¶7. (S/NF) IRAN: France remains one of our strongest allies on Iran. In his speech to Ambassadors and more recently in his meeting with Chancellor Merkel, Sarkozy has taken a tough public line on the post-election developments and cautioned that Iran needs to respond constructively to the P5 PLUS 1 offer. French officials had hoped that President Obama's non-proliferation UNSC Summit would refer specifically to Iran and are anxious that an alternative summit, at P5 PLUS 1 or G-8, take place around UNGA or Pittsburgh. They want to discuss how we plan to work with Russia and China on Iran and next steps. Levitte and others raise this issue constantly, and have recently pointed to a decision at the G-8 in Italy as authorizing such a meeting on the margins of Pittsburgh. In addition, France has been pursuing the release of French citizen Clotilde Reiss and Franco-Iranian dual national Nazak Afshar, who were arrested in Tehran following the June elections for allegedly participating in anti-government demonstrations and conducting espionage. These detentions precipitated a recent deterioration in French relations with Iran, which will likely be felt as the late September deadline for Iran's response to the P5 PLUS 1 approaches. ¶8. (C) AFGHANISTAN: President Sarkozy and FM Kouchner have regularly reiterated France's long-term commitment to Afghanistan in public speeches. France has approximately 3,000 troops in ISAF in Afghanistan, most of whom are concentrated in Kapisa province in the east, where it recently suffered its 29th death. Earlier this year, the French MFA formed an interagency cell on Afghanistan and Pakistan, currently led by UMP deputy Thierry Mariani, to raise the GOF profile on this issue and better coordinate among government agencies. France is devoting some 45 million euros to civilian reconstruction efforts this year, which are concentrated in agriculture (storage and markets), health (Kouchner's private interest),and education. France also spearheaded the European Gendarmerie Force (EDF) police training mission which should be deployed this autumn with some 150 French gendarmes participating. Like us, Paris remains interested in the outcome of the Afghan elections, particularly whether the results are credible and transparent, and whether a second round will be necessary. ¶9. (S/NF) MIDDLE EAST: The GOF is eager to engage with the United States on the Middle East peace process and worries we are not moving fast enough. President Sarkozy continues to press for a Middle East peace summit sometime this fall, to be held under the auspices of the Union for the Mediterranean, of which Egypt and France are currently co-chairs. During her August 20 conversation with FM Kouchner, the Secretary said the timing was not good for a summit, as the international community needs first to ensure Israel and the Palestinians would agree to meet. She spoke to FM Kouchner again about this issue on September 3, and they pledged to discuss it further at UNGA. As of September 9, there was no official POTUS response to the PARIS 00001233 003 OF 004 Sarkozy-Mubarak letter of August 6, proposing a peace summit. ¶10. (C) NATO REFORM: With the transfer of the Allied Command Transformation (ACT) to the command of French general Stephane Abrial on September 9, Paris is fully on board with plans to reform NATO, transforming it into a more dynamic and effective organization. The French are eager to share their experiences in streamlining their national defense forces following the publication in summer 2008 of a new "White Paper" on Defense and National Security. The GOF believes NATO is top-heavy and has far too many headquarters staff (between 13,000 and 15,000) to handle deployments of only 60,000 troops. France will be vitally interested in the work of the "Group of 12" headed by Madeleine Albright to start work on the new NATO Strategic Concept for next year. ¶11. (SBU) PITTSBURGH G20 MEETINGS: The collapse of Lehman Brothers and the onset of the financial crisis last year coincided with France's EU presidency. We have been told that President Sarkozy's personal focus on the gravity of the financial situation preceded Lehman and developed following a meeting with then NY Fed President Tim Geithner on the margins of the UNGA. Whether true or not, by the end of September, Sarkozy was moving to galvanize the Eurogroup as a political force and to lead the EU in calling for coordinated international action and a summit to address the financial crisis. Sarkozy was the driving force in pressing a somewhat reluctant Washington to convene the first G20 Heads of State meeting, which took place in Washington in November. At the time, France emphasized the need for G20 action on tax havens; ensuring supervision of all financial institutions; promoting anti-cyclical remuneration models; instituting disclosure requirements for rating agencies; and establishing new prudential rules for financial institutions. ¶12. (SBU) PITTSBURGH (CONTINUED): President Sarkozy has repeatedly stressed the importance of "moralizing" capitalism, with an emphasis on hard work and social responsibility. He occasionally invokes the "Anglo-Saxon" model as a foil -- even when pushing against an open door -- to score political points. France and Germany hold common positions on G20 issues and have succeeded in rallying the UK and the Eurogroup. Priorities for this year's meeting include: -- Reforming supervision of financial markets to ensure consistency internationally; -- Reaching agreement on limits on remuneration and bonuses in the financial sector; -- Changing accounting standards, in particular softening the mark to market requirements in the IFRS and ensuring consistency between US GAAP and IFRS on valuation; -- Moving forward on reform of IMF voting rights; -- Beginning coordination on unwinding anti-financial crisis measures; and, -- Opening the shadow banking system to review. ¶13. (SBU) CLIMATE CHANGE: The French have been leaders in the EU on addressing climate change and they have publicly and privately criticized the United States for lagging behind in advance of the Copenhagen summit. Senator Mark Warner met September 1 with French officials and noted the Senate would not likely finish Senator Boxer's version of the House-passed Waxman-Markey Bill in time for the December Copenhagen climate change negotiations. The USG is pressing France to join us in focusing on restraining developing countries' emissions. ¶14. (C) AFRICA: Sarkozy is serious about revising France's Africa policy away from the paternalistic "France-Afrique" to a more pragmatic approach. While the advantages of France-Afrique allowed that model to endure for decades, its saliency has weakened as the colonial era grows more distant and as the political and economic costs to France of backstopping former colonies have become harder to sustain. In modernizing and normalizing relations with Africa, the French risk losing some influence while reducing a number of burdens. This is a trade-off they believe they must make, and they seem confident that a France engaged with Africans on these new terms would be an attractive partner capable of PARIS 00001233 004 OF 004 sustaining old relationships and cultivating and nurturing new ones across the continent. France's new Africa policies also open the door for greater cooperation with the U.S. For example, France is hosting on September 10 a bilateral discussion with senior USG officials on addressing security and terrorism concerns in Africa's Sahel region. Participating on the U.S. side will be AF A/S Carson, INL A/S Johnson, S/CT Coordinator Benjamin, NEA DAS Sanderson, plus NSC, DOD, and USAID officials. ¶15. (S/NF) GUANTANAMO: France has agreed to take a second Guantanamo detainee, Bosnian citizen Sabir Mahfouz Lahmar. The French wish to keep this agreement secret for the timebeing. In fact, they are very sensitive about announcing their decision according to their own timeline. There is also some sensitivity in France regarding the question of who will pay for the care of the transferee. ¶16. (C) UNESCO: While the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Minister Kouchner have pledged "full French support" in efforts to elect a qualified candidate at UNESCO Director-General, and not Egypt's Farouk Hosni, influential Presidential advisor Henri Guaino leads the Elysee opposition to any change in French neutrality -- the result of an agreement between Sarkozy and Mubarak. There is not yet any consensus on an alternate candidate. Hosni has reportedly established himself in Paris to continue campaigning. ¶17. (C) DOMESTIC POLITICS: Now approaching the midpoint of his five year term, President Sarkozy is comfortably riding the momentum generated by a successful showing in last June's European Parliament elections that severely weakened the UMP's primary opponent, the Socialist Party. Facing a divided and leaderless Left, Sarkozy hopes to consolidate his command of the French political scene by winning the regional council elections next March, the last major electoral contest until the presidential and legislative elections in ¶2012. In recent months, Sarkozy and his majority UMP party have concentrated on joining forces with a number of small political parties from across the political spectrum to ensure his reelection. RIVKIN