FRANCE-IAEA: TOTAL SUPPORT ON IRAN, MORE NUANCED ON SYRIA

C O N F I D E N T I A L PARIS 001218 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/04/2019 TAGS: KNNP PARM IAEA MNUC IR SY TRGY PREL FR SUBJECT: FRANCE-IAEA: TOTAL SUPPORT ON IRAN, MORE NUANCED ON SYRIA REF: STATE 91633 Classified By: Political Minister Counselor Kathy Allegrone for Reasons 1.4 (b),(d). ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: GOF contacts at the MFA and the Elysee all expressed strong agreement with U.S. views of the IAEA report on Iran (reftel),but gave a slightly more nuanced reaction to the Syria report. The French view on the Syria report tracks with ours and our interlocutors expressed serious concerns about Syria's lack of cooperation with the IAEA. However, they also characterized Syria's case as more modest and not an immediate threat and cautioned that treating the two equally could end in missing the objective. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (C) The MFA IAEA officer who deals specifically with Iran, Florent Aydalot, said September 4 that France completely shares our analysis of the IAEA report on Iran. He added that recent press coverage of the report had been "too positive," claiming at times that Iran had stopped installing centrifuges or was no longer enriching uranium. In fact, Iran's nuclear program was ongoing, the Iranians were still installing centrifuges, and if they used their full enriching capacity, they could drastically and quickly increase their stockpiles. Aydalot said the UK was also planning to demarche relevant IAEA member nations, and had approached France and Germany to coordinate. France is not currently considering a demarche, but Aydalot pointed to strong public statements by FM Kouchner, most recently a sharply worded September 3 call for the IAEA to release the annex on the possible military dimension of the Iranian nuclear program. France will support a strong EU statement on the Iran report, and plans to discuss Iran in detail at the September 4-5 Gymnich gathering of EU foreign ministers. ¶3. (C) The official French reaction to our views of the IAEA report on Syria, however, was slightly more reticent. MFA IAEA officer Francois Revardeaux said France agreed with the substance of the U.S. analysis of the report and welcomed our plans to demarche IAEA member states to encourage strong statements along similar lines. He also said France was happy to see the report affirm that military facilities are not off limits to IAEA inspections. However, Revardeaux said international efforts to gain Syria's full cooperation with the IAEA should be considered in context. He underlined the IAEA's expressed desire to work with Syria to find a way to gain full cooperation while also respecting Syrian concerns about confidentiality, and said any solution should avoid stigmatizing Syria. He said France stresses to Syria its need to give satisfactory answers to the IAEA's questions in the context of its bilateral relationship, and that the EU statement on the Syria report was currently being negotiated and was expected to be "balanced." Revardeaux said France wanted to keep the pressure on Syria at the IAEA, but would not want to see a separate resolution on Syria or a special inspections regime. ¶4. (C) This message was consistent with the reaction of Elysee (presidency) Strategic Advisor Francois Richier, who said September 4 that France was serious about Syria and shared U.S. concerns. However, he said Iran and Syria are separate cases, and expressed concern that lumping them together might dilute attention that should be focused on Iran. In France's view, the Syrian case is "historical." Syria poses a "modest" risk and not an immediate danger. The historical question must be answered, however. The uranium traces mentioned in the report are worrying and the IAEA should continue looking into the matter. Yet the Syrian case was not in the same league as Iran and treating them equally could lead to us missing the goal. ¶5. (C) COMMENT: President Sarkozy continues to maintain a hard line on Iran, and the IAEA report provides further ammunition for France as it attempts to encourage EU partners to agree to a stringent sanctions package, even in the absence of a UN resolution. However, Sarkozy has pursued strong diplomatic engagement of Syria, sometimes to the consternation of regional allies. The GOF does not dispute the substance of the IAEA report and sincerely wants full cooperation from Syria, but France seems to hope this issue will be settled within the IAEA, and without serious escalation. Post is separately demarching other MFA officials responsible for the Middle East and will report further, as appropriate. END COMMENT. RIVKIN