MIDDLE EAST: SARKOZY AND MUBARAK CONFER ON NEXT

C O N F I D E N T I A L PARIS 001007

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/24/2019
TAGS: PGOV PREL FR
SUBJECT: MIDDLE EAST: SARKOZY AND MUBARAK CONFER ON NEXT
STEPS

Classified By: Classifed by POL M/C Kathleen Allegrone for reasons 1.4
(B) AND (D).


1. (C) Summary: Mubarak and Sarkozy reportedly are in
agreement on the need to move quickly on the
Israel-Palestinian front, following their meeting in Paris
July 21. According to one of Sarkozy,s key advisors,
Mubarak shares Sarkozy,s interest in convening an
international conference as a means of jump-starting the
issue. The advisor previewed that Mubarak and Sarkozy may
soon approach President Obama directly about their ideas.
Israeli Pol Chief in Paris separately indicated they too have
heard of a possible Franco-Egyptian initiative. End Summary.

GROWING CONCERN
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2. (C) According to Elysee Americas advisor (and acting
Middle East advisor) Damien Loras, Egyptian President Mubarak
expressed impatience with the pace of the U.S. efforts in the
Middle East when meeting July 21 with President Sarkozy.
Mubarak, like the Saudis and other Arab leaders, deeply
appreciates the close cooperation with the U.S. and U.S.
attention to the issue, but after six months, there is
growing concern over the pace and ability of the U.S. to be
strong enough to convince Israel to yield on settlements.
They are well aware of the possible constraints on the
President, including key domestic issues on the President,s
agenda that will demand his attention and the support of
Congress.

3. (C) Sarkozy, according to Loras, shared Mubarak,s
analysis and his impatience. Sarkozy is also concerned that a
compromise with Israel over settlements policy is inevitable;
therefore it would be best to move to that stage quickly.
Progressing deliberately and still arriving at a compromise
may make it more difficult to bring the Arabs fully on board.
At the same time, Sarkozy emphasized to Mubarak, as he will
with other Arab leaders, that it is past time for the Arabs
to take some positive steps.

PUTTING SARKOZY,S CONFERENCE IDEA TO GOOD USE?
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4. (C) Mubarak and Sarkozy reportedly agreed on the need to
bring the parties together in the not-too-distant future; to
outline their responsibilities and the parameters of a
settlement; and to set a relatively short timeline for them
to engage seriously on the issues. Loras stressed that
Sarkozy,s recurring proposal for a conference is ¬ a
gadget,8 but rather it is a tool that could be used to help
bring about progress. As Sarkozy and his advisors see it,
the U.S. is working first to seek an Israeli agreement on a
settlement freeze, to be followed by steps taken by the Arabs
and subsequently by additional steps by all parties. They
are concerned that Israel would be satisfied with greater
Arab recognition and not be inclined to do more. The French
believe that putting the idea of a conference into the mix
soon would put pressure on both the Israelis and
Palestinians, particularly if it is true that Netanyahu wants
to avoid such a conference at all costs. If the
prospect/threat of a conference produces voluntary results,
fine; if it doesn,t, then in the French view, a conference
would be among the paths open to the international community
in any case.

5. (C) Loras previewed that Presidents Mubarak and Sarkozy
will likely put a joint initiative or request before
President Obama in the near future. Israeli Political
Counselor separately hinted to us that they had heard about a
possible Franco-Egyptian initiative. In a separate meeting,
Acting MFA Middle East Director Paucelle was more cautious,
indicating that while Sarkozy and Mubarak share a sense of
urgency, Mubarak may choose not to join with Sarkozy in
approaching President Obama or even in promoting Sarkozy,s
conference initiative.

PEKALA