MIDDLE EAST: SARKOZY AND MUBARAK CONFER ON NEXT

C O N F I D E N T I A L PARIS 001007 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/24/2019 TAGS: PGOV PREL FR SUBJECT: MIDDLE EAST: SARKOZY AND MUBARAK CONFER ON NEXT STEPS Classified By: Classifed by POL M/C Kathleen Allegrone for reasons 1.4 (B) AND (D). ¶1. (C) Summary: Mubarak and Sarkozy reportedly are in agreement on the need to move quickly on the Israel-Palestinian front, following their meeting in Paris July 21. According to one of Sarkozy,s key advisors, Mubarak shares Sarkozy,s interest in convening an international conference as a means of jump-starting the issue. The advisor previewed that Mubarak and Sarkozy may soon approach President Obama directly about their ideas. Israeli Pol Chief in Paris separately indicated they too have heard of a possible Franco-Egyptian initiative. End Summary. GROWING CONCERN -------------- ¶2. (C) According to Elysee Americas advisor (and acting Middle East advisor) Damien Loras, Egyptian President Mubarak expressed impatience with the pace of the U.S. efforts in the Middle East when meeting July 21 with President Sarkozy. Mubarak, like the Saudis and other Arab leaders, deeply appreciates the close cooperation with the U.S. and U.S. attention to the issue, but after six months, there is growing concern over the pace and ability of the U.S. to be strong enough to convince Israel to yield on settlements. They are well aware of the possible constraints on the President, including key domestic issues on the President,s agenda that will demand his attention and the support of Congress. ¶3. (C) Sarkozy, according to Loras, shared Mubarak,s analysis and his impatience. Sarkozy is also concerned that a compromise with Israel over settlements policy is inevitable; therefore it would be best to move to that stage quickly. Progressing deliberately and still arriving at a compromise may make it more difficult to bring the Arabs fully on board. At the same time, Sarkozy emphasized to Mubarak, as he will with other Arab leaders, that it is past time for the Arabs to take some positive steps. PUTTING SARKOZY,S CONFERENCE IDEA TO GOOD USE? -------------- ¶4. (C) Mubarak and Sarkozy reportedly agreed on the need to bring the parties together in the not-too-distant future; to outline their responsibilities and the parameters of a settlement; and to set a relatively short timeline for them to engage seriously on the issues. Loras stressed that Sarkozy,s recurring proposal for a conference is ¬ a gadget,8 but rather it is a tool that could be used to help bring about progress. As Sarkozy and his advisors see it, the U.S. is working first to seek an Israeli agreement on a settlement freeze, to be followed by steps taken by the Arabs and subsequently by additional steps by all parties. They are concerned that Israel would be satisfied with greater Arab recognition and not be inclined to do more. The French believe that putting the idea of a conference into the mix soon would put pressure on both the Israelis and Palestinians, particularly if it is true that Netanyahu wants to avoid such a conference at all costs. If the prospect/threat of a conference produces voluntary results, fine; if it doesn,t, then in the French view, a conference would be among the paths open to the international community in any case. ¶5. (C) Loras previewed that Presidents Mubarak and Sarkozy will likely put a joint initiative or request before President Obama in the near future. Israeli Political Counselor separately hinted to us that they had heard about a possible Franco-Egyptian initiative. In a separate meeting, Acting MFA Middle East Director Paucelle was more cautious, indicating that while Sarkozy and Mubarak share a sense of urgency, Mubarak may choose not to join with Sarkozy in approaching President Obama or even in promoting Sarkozy,s conference initiative. PEKALA