MARTINELLI SECURES 12 POINT LEAD OVER RULING PARTY

C O N F I D E N T I A L PANAMA 000068

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/15/2019
TAGS: PGOV PM
SUBJECT: MARTINELLI SECURES 12 POINT LEAD OVER RULING PARTY
CANDIDATE

Classified By: POLCOUNS Brian R. Naranjo Reasons: 1.4(b) and (d)


--------------
Summary
--------------


1. (C) Opposition candidate Ricardo Martinelli of
Democratic Change (CD) has been declared the
"absolute favorite" by the Panamanian media after
gaining a 12 point lead over ruling Revolutionary
Democratic Party (PRD) candidate Balbina Herrera,
according to a recent Dichter and Neira presidential
poll. Businessman Juan Carlos Varela of the
Panamenista Party receded further from view to an
ever-distant third place, while former President
Guillermo Endara's Moral Vanguard campaign appears
on the verge of complete collapse.

-------------- --------------
Martinelli Surges in the Polls While Rivals Lose Ground
-------------- --------------


2. (SBU) When asked who they would vote for if the 2009
elections were held today, Ricardo Martinelli won an
initial 44.3 percent of voter preference, representing
a three point gain from Dichter and Neira's December poll
results. Martinelli secured another three points last
week, elevating him 47 percent of voter preference,
based on the results of Dichter and Neira's weekly
supplement of data collected January 9 and 10.
Meanwhile, the Herrera machine idled at 31.3 percent,
showing virtually no change from December's numbers.
Panamenista Party candidate Juan Carlos Varela continued
to flag in popularity with 14.1 percent of voter
preference, losing 4.5 points since December. Endara's
campaign capsized at 2.5 percent, sinking below the
poll's 2.8 percent margin of error.


3. (SBU) Pollster Unimer also published new numbers
this month in Panama City daily La Prensa, giving
Martinelli a whopping 18 point lead over Herrera.
According to Unimer, Martinelli rose 6.9 points, from
36.2 percent in November to 43.1 percent in January.
The first numbers from Unimer since Herrera named VP
running mate Juan Carlos Navarro served to underscore
the failure of any expected gains for the PRD, as
Herrera suffered a 5.4 point drop in popularity, falling
from 30.8 percent in November to 25.4 percent in January.
Varela scored only 14.9 percent of voter preference
in the Unimer poll, tying "blank vote" in Unimer's
sample. Endara teetered on the edge of oblivion at
.9 percent. Unimer's poll included 1,210 participants
and has a 2.8 percent margin of error.

--------------
Security Remains Top Voter Concern
--------------


4. (SBU) Since November, crime and insecurity have
been cited consistently by respondents to Dichter
and Neira's pollsters as the biggest problems in
neighborhoods that warrant prompt attention. In
November, voters rated insecurity slightly higher
than crime, at 26.8 and 24.5 percent, respectively.
In December, crime took the lead with 25.7 percent,
while insecurity fell 5 points to 20.8 percent.
This trend continued in January, where 33.6
percent of respondents now cite crime as the number
one concern, an 8.1 percent increase since December,
and 19 percent cite insecurity as the biggest problem
in their neighborhood, a 7.8 point drop. Garbage,
unemployment and the poor state of the streets
were rated third, fourth and fifth in matters
of concern, while other issues were an even lesser
concern, including lack of water, electricity,
gangs and drugs.


5. (SBU) When asked by Dichter and Neira what they
considered to be the most serious problem
confronting the country as a whole, 43.1 percent
of respondents cited security, up 7.7 points from
December. Security has held steady as the issue of
top national concern among respondents since
November of 2008, followed by the cost of living,
which fell 3 points from December, but still rated

22.3 percent. For the first time, juvenile violence
outpaced unemployment as the third most pressing
national concern, garnering 13.7 percent, a 5.7 point
increase from last month.


6. (SBU) Similarly, Panama City daily newspaper
Panama America reported that according to the latest
poll conducted by Ipsos for Telemetro (channel 13),
insecurity, violence and crime were considered to
be the most serious problems by 78 percent of
respondents. The numbers coincide with recent
media reports that crime rose 34 percent last year,
including an increase in the number of homicides
by one third, from 444 in 2007 to 593 in 2008.

--------------
Remedial Measures
--------------


7. (C) Asked by Dichter and Neira if they
believed that the state should apply tough measures
against crime, 96.2 percent said yes, while only
2.9 percent said no. (Comment: PRD candidate
Balbina Herrera appears to have gotten on the wrong
side of voter preference on this issue by publicly
opposing a tough government approach (known as the
"mano dura" policy),instead advocating a focus on
social measures to combat crime.) Interestingly,
when asked if the police make frequent rounds
past their house or neighborhood, 25.3 responded
that the police make rounds several times a day,
indicating a fairly strong police presence in many
areas. A total of 26.5 percent responded that the
police made rounds in their area "occasionally",
14.7 responded "once a day," and only 11.4 percent
responded that they had never seen police making
rounds. When asked what should be done to improve
security, the majority of those polled supported
lengthening jail times (22.4 percent) and treating
minors like adults under the law (20.4 percent),
while others favored a combined approach (20 percent).

--------------
Balbina Locks Down Her Base
--------------


8. (SBU) According to Dichter and Neira, A total
of 76.5 percent of voters said they would "definitely
vote" in the May elections, a number that has risen
slightly over the last three months (from 72.9
percent in November and 73.4 percent in December).
Herrera continued to rally the greatest number
of committed supporters with 83 percent who would
"definitely vote" for her, representing a 6.6 point
increase from 76.4 percent in December. This number
remained unchanged in the Dichter and Neira weekly
supplement, reporting results from January 9 and

10. Supporters of Herrera appear slightly more
committed than Martinelli fans, who initially
scored 78.2 percent of definite votes in January,
an increase of 6.5 points from 71.7 percent in
December. Yet Martinelli gained an additional
2.8 points in the last week, bringing him up to
81 percent.


9. (C) Curiously, the greatest increase in voter
support was initially seen among Varela enthusiasts,
with 82.4 percent stating they would "definitely
vote" for Varela, representing an 8.3 point surge
from December. However, this number was followed
by a 12.4 point plummet last week, leaving Varela
with 75 percent. Similarly, Endara supporters
also appeared to make an impressive rally, with
77.4 percent saying that they would "definitely vote"
for him, up an extraordinary 13.5 points from December.
This number also crashed by a dramatic 13.4 points last
week, however, bringing Endara's percent of definite
voters down to its original 64 percent. (Given the
small number of Endara supporters, the margins of
error for this question were /-18percent and /-18.9
percent). (Comment: These whiplash movements on this
tracking question with respect to Varela and Endara
may be evidence of campaigns in their death throes as the
most devote supporters are the last to abandon their
preferred candidate, but, when they do, tend to move
en masse.)



10. (SBU) In summary, Herrera remains in the lead,
securing 83 percent of definite votes, while Martinelli
has steadily gained ground with 81 percent. Varela and
Endara have nosedived dramatically in the last week,
now capturing 75 and 64 percent of definite votes,
respectively.

--------------
Performance of the Current Government
--------------


11. (SBU) Dichter and Neira's January's numbers
with respect to the performance of incumbent
President Martin Torrijos remained similar to
those of the last four months: 3.6 percent
of voters rated his performance as "excellent",
44.6 percent as "good", 38.9 percent as "bad"
and 9.7 percent as "very bad". These numbers
virtually mirror the findings of the latest
Unimer poll, where 49.1 percent of respondents
said that the administration's performance had
been bad or very bad, and 48.8 percent felt it
was good or excellent. Similarly, respondents
expressed no marked changes in their opinion of
the performance of the national government as a
whole since October. According to Dichter and
Neira's January numbers, 2.6 percent found the
performance of the national government to
be "excellent", 38.6 percent as "good", 44.8
percent as "bad" and 10.6 percent as "very bad".

--------------
Technical Data
--------------


12. (SBU) Second Dichter and Neira January poll:
Dichter and Neira conducted 1,238 interviews of
men and women over the age of 18 who are residents
of Panama. The poll was conducted nationally,
except in the remote and difficult to reach Darien
Province and indigenous people's autonomous
regions (comarcas). Interviews were conducted
face-to-face in individuals' homes from Friday,
January 9 to Saturday, January 10. Sampling
was multi-staged. The first stage distributed
the total sample according to population by
province as well as rural and urban precincts
(corregimientos),and in the second stage
blocks were randomly selected and homes were
first randomly and then systematically selected.
The margin of error for the poll was assessed
at /- 2.8 percent with a confidence level of
95 percent.


13. (SBU) First Dichter and Neira January poll:
Dichter and Neira conducted 1,243 interviews
of men and women over the age of 18 who are
residents of Panama. The poll was conducted
nationally, except in the remote and difficult
to reach Darien Province and indigenous people's
autonomous regions (comarcas). Interviews were
conducted face-to-face in individuals' homes
from Friday, January 2 to Sunday, January 4.
Sampling was multi-staged. The first stage
distributed the total sample according to
population by province as well as rural and
urban precincts (corregimientos),and in the
second stage blocks were randomly selected
and homes were first randomly and then
systematically selected. The margin of
error for the poll was assessed at /- 2.8
percent with a confidence level of 95 percent.


14. (SBU) December Dichter and Neira poll:
Dichter and Neira conducted 1,200 interviews
of men and women over the age of 18 who are
residents of Panama. The poll was conducted
nationally, except in the remote and difficult
to reach Darien Province and indigenous people's
autonomous regions (comarcas). Interviews
were conducted face-to-face in individuals'
homes from Friday, November 28 to Sunday,
November 30. Sampling was multi-staged.
The first stage distributed the total sample
according to population by province as well as

rural and urban precincts (corregimientos),and in
the second stage blocks were randomly selected
and homes were first randomly and then
systematically selected. The margin of error
for the poll was assessed at /- 2.9
percent with a confidence level of 95 percent.

15 (SBU) November Dichter and Neira poll:
Dichter and Neira conducted 1,200 interviews of
men and women over the age of 18 who are residents
of Panama. The poll was conducted nationally,
except in the remote and difficult to reach
Darien Province and the indigenous people's
autonomous regions (comarcas). Interviews
were conducted face-to-face in individuals'
homes from Friday, October 24 to Sunday, October

26. Sampling was multi-staged. The first
stage distributed the total sample according
to population by province as well as rural and
urban precincts (corregimientos),and in the
second stage blocks were randomly selected and
homes were first randomly and then systematically
selected. The margin of error for the poll was
assessed at /- 2.9 percent with a confidence level
of 95 percent.

STEPHENSON
GILMOUR