MARTINELLI SECURES 12 POINT LEAD OVER RULING PARTY

C O N F I D E N T I A L PANAMA 000068 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/15/2019 TAGS: PGOV PM SUBJECT: MARTINELLI SECURES 12 POINT LEAD OVER RULING PARTY CANDIDATE Classified By: POLCOUNS Brian R. Naranjo Reasons: 1.4(b) and (d) -------------- Summary -------------- ¶1. (C) Opposition candidate Ricardo Martinelli of Democratic Change (CD) has been declared the "absolute favorite" by the Panamanian media after gaining a 12 point lead over ruling Revolutionary Democratic Party (PRD) candidate Balbina Herrera, according to a recent Dichter and Neira presidential poll. Businessman Juan Carlos Varela of the Panamenista Party receded further from view to an ever-distant third place, while former President Guillermo Endara's Moral Vanguard campaign appears on the verge of complete collapse. -------------- -------------- Martinelli Surges in the Polls While Rivals Lose Ground -------------- -------------- ¶2. (SBU) When asked who they would vote for if the 2009 elections were held today, Ricardo Martinelli won an initial 44.3 percent of voter preference, representing a three point gain from Dichter and Neira's December poll results. Martinelli secured another three points last week, elevating him 47 percent of voter preference, based on the results of Dichter and Neira's weekly supplement of data collected January 9 and 10. Meanwhile, the Herrera machine idled at 31.3 percent, showing virtually no change from December's numbers. Panamenista Party candidate Juan Carlos Varela continued to flag in popularity with 14.1 percent of voter preference, losing 4.5 points since December. Endara's campaign capsized at 2.5 percent, sinking below the poll's 2.8 percent margin of error. ¶3. (SBU) Pollster Unimer also published new numbers this month in Panama City daily La Prensa, giving Martinelli a whopping 18 point lead over Herrera. According to Unimer, Martinelli rose 6.9 points, from 36.2 percent in November to 43.1 percent in January. The first numbers from Unimer since Herrera named VP running mate Juan Carlos Navarro served to underscore the failure of any expected gains for the PRD, as Herrera suffered a 5.4 point drop in popularity, falling from 30.8 percent in November to 25.4 percent in January. Varela scored only 14.9 percent of voter preference in the Unimer poll, tying "blank vote" in Unimer's sample. Endara teetered on the edge of oblivion at .9 percent. Unimer's poll included 1,210 participants and has a 2.8 percent margin of error. 
 -------------- Security Remains Top Voter Concern -------------- ¶4. (SBU) Since November, crime and insecurity have been cited consistently by respondents to Dichter and Neira's pollsters as the biggest problems in neighborhoods that warrant prompt attention. In November, voters rated insecurity slightly higher than crime, at 26.8 and 24.5 percent, respectively. In December, crime took the lead with 25.7 percent, while insecurity fell 5 points to 20.8 percent. This trend continued in January, where 33.6 percent of respondents now cite crime as the number one concern, an 8.1 percent increase since December, and 19 percent cite insecurity as the biggest problem in their neighborhood, a 7.8 point drop. Garbage, unemployment and the poor state of the streets were rated third, fourth and fifth in matters of concern, while other issues were an even lesser concern, including lack of water, electricity, gangs and drugs. ¶5. (SBU) When asked by Dichter and Neira what they considered to be the most serious problem confronting the country as a whole, 43.1 percent of respondents cited security, up 7.7 points from December. Security has held steady as the issue of top national concern among respondents since November of 2008, followed by the cost of living, which fell 3 points from December, but still rated 22.3 percent. For the first time, juvenile violence outpaced unemployment as the third most pressing national concern, garnering 13.7 percent, a 5.7 point increase from last month. ¶6. (SBU) Similarly, Panama City daily newspaper Panama America reported that according to the latest poll conducted by Ipsos for Telemetro (channel 13), insecurity, violence and crime were considered to be the most serious problems by 78 percent of respondents. The numbers coincide with recent media reports that crime rose 34 percent last year, including an increase in the number of homicides by one third, from 444 in 2007 to 593 in 2008. -------------- Remedial Measures -------------- ¶7. (C) Asked by Dichter and Neira if they believed that the state should apply tough measures against crime, 96.2 percent said yes, while only 2.9 percent said no. (Comment: PRD candidate Balbina Herrera appears to have gotten on the wrong side of voter preference on this issue by publicly opposing a tough government approach (known as the "mano dura" policy),instead advocating a focus on social measures to combat crime.) Interestingly, when asked if the police make frequent rounds past their house or neighborhood, 25.3 responded that the police make rounds several times a day, indicating a fairly strong police presence in many areas. A total of 26.5 percent responded that the police made rounds in their area "occasionally", 14.7 responded "once a day," and only 11.4 percent responded that they had never seen police making rounds. When asked what should be done to improve security, the majority of those polled supported lengthening jail times (22.4 percent) and treating minors like adults under the law (20.4 percent), while others favored a combined approach (20 percent). -------------- Balbina Locks Down Her Base -------------- ¶8. (SBU) According to Dichter and Neira, A total of 76.5 percent of voters said they would "definitely vote" in the May elections, a number that has risen slightly over the last three months (from 72.9 percent in November and 73.4 percent in December). Herrera continued to rally the greatest number of committed supporters with 83 percent who would "definitely vote" for her, representing a 6.6 point increase from 76.4 percent in December. This number remained unchanged in the Dichter and Neira weekly supplement, reporting results from January 9 and ¶10. Supporters of Herrera appear slightly more committed than Martinelli fans, who initially scored 78.2 percent of definite votes in January, an increase of 6.5 points from 71.7 percent in December. Yet Martinelli gained an additional 2.8 points in the last week, bringing him up to 81 percent. ¶9. (C) Curiously, the greatest increase in voter support was initially seen among Varela enthusiasts, with 82.4 percent stating they would "definitely vote" for Varela, representing an 8.3 point surge from December. However, this number was followed by a 12.4 point plummet last week, leaving Varela with 75 percent. Similarly, Endara supporters also appeared to make an impressive rally, with 77.4 percent saying that they would "definitely vote" for him, up an extraordinary 13.5 points from December. This number also crashed by a dramatic 13.4 points last week, however, bringing Endara's percent of definite voters down to its original 64 percent. (Given the small number of Endara supporters, the margins of error for this question were /-18percent and /-18.9 percent). (Comment: These whiplash movements on this tracking question with respect to Varela and Endara may be evidence of campaigns in their death throes as the most devote supporters are the last to abandon their preferred candidate, but, when they do, tend to move en masse.) ¶10. (SBU) In summary, Herrera remains in the lead, securing 83 percent of definite votes, while Martinelli has steadily gained ground with 81 percent. Varela and Endara have nosedived dramatically in the last week, now capturing 75 and 64 percent of definite votes, respectively. -------------- Performance of the Current Government -------------- ¶11. (SBU) Dichter and Neira's January's numbers with respect to the performance of incumbent President Martin Torrijos remained similar to those of the last four months: 3.6 percent of voters rated his performance as "excellent", 44.6 percent as "good", 38.9 percent as "bad" and 9.7 percent as "very bad". These numbers virtually mirror the findings of the latest Unimer poll, where 49.1 percent of respondents said that the administration's performance had been bad or very bad, and 48.8 percent felt it was good or excellent. Similarly, respondents expressed no marked changes in their opinion of the performance of the national government as a whole since October. According to Dichter and Neira's January numbers, 2.6 percent found the performance of the national government to be "excellent", 38.6 percent as "good", 44.8 percent as "bad" and 10.6 percent as "very bad". -------------- Technical Data -------------- ¶12. (SBU) Second Dichter and Neira January poll: Dichter and Neira conducted 1,238 interviews of men and women over the age of 18 who are residents of Panama. The poll was conducted nationally, except in the remote and difficult to reach Darien Province and indigenous people's autonomous regions (comarcas). Interviews were conducted face-to-face in individuals' homes from Friday, January 9 to Saturday, January 10. Sampling was multi-staged. The first stage distributed the total sample according to population by province as well as rural and urban precincts (corregimientos),and in the second stage blocks were randomly selected and homes were first randomly and then systematically selected. The margin of error for the poll was assessed at /- 2.8 percent with a confidence level of 95 percent. ¶13. (SBU) First Dichter and Neira January poll: Dichter and Neira conducted 1,243 interviews of men and women over the age of 18 who are residents of Panama. The poll was conducted nationally, except in the remote and difficult to reach Darien Province and indigenous people's autonomous regions (comarcas). Interviews were conducted face-to-face in individuals' homes from Friday, January 2 to Sunday, January 4. Sampling was multi-staged. The first stage distributed the total sample according to population by province as well as rural and urban precincts (corregimientos),and in the second stage blocks were randomly selected and homes were first randomly and then systematically selected. The margin of error for the poll was assessed at /- 2.8 percent with a confidence level of 95 percent. ¶14. (SBU) December Dichter and Neira poll: Dichter and Neira conducted 1,200 interviews of men and women over the age of 18 who are residents of Panama. The poll was conducted nationally, except in the remote and difficult to reach Darien Province and indigenous people's autonomous regions (comarcas). Interviews were conducted face-to-face in individuals' homes from Friday, November 28 to Sunday, November 30. Sampling was multi-staged. The first stage distributed the total sample according to population by province as well as rural and urban precincts (corregimientos),and in the second stage blocks were randomly selected and homes were first randomly and then systematically selected. The margin of error for the poll was assessed at /- 2.9 percent with a confidence level of 95 percent. 15 (SBU) November Dichter and Neira poll: Dichter and Neira conducted 1,200 interviews of men and women over the age of 18 who are residents of Panama. The poll was conducted nationally, except in the remote and difficult to reach Darien Province and the indigenous people's autonomous regions (comarcas). Interviews were conducted face-to-face in individuals' homes from Friday, October 24 to Sunday, October ¶26. Sampling was multi-staged. The first stage distributed the total sample according to population by province as well as rural and urban precincts (corregimientos),and in the second stage blocks were randomly selected and homes were first randomly and then systematically selected. The margin of error for the poll was assessed at /- 2.9 percent with a confidence level of 95 percent. STEPHENSON GILMOUR