PANAMA: PRD SCRAMBLING AFTER SWEEPING ELECTORAL

C O N F I D E N T I A L PANAMA 000381 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/06/2019 TAGS: PGOV PM PREL SUBJECT: PANAMA: PRD SCRAMBLING AFTER SWEEPING ELECTORAL DEFEAT Classified By: Classified by: Ambassador Barbara J. Stephenson for reas ons 1.4(b) and (d). -------------- Summary -------------- ¶1. (SBU) The Revolutionary Democratic Party (PRD) - Panama's largest and traditionally best organized political party - is suffering immensely from its resounding May 3 electoral defeat. "Alliance for Change" candidate Ricardo Martinelli's overwhelming victory over the PRD has caused the ruling party to scramble as it attempts to come to terms with its disappointing electoral results. Former presidential candidate Balbina Herrera has declared herself the opposition leader while former President Ernesto "El Toro" Perez Balladares called for the resignation of the PRD's National Executive Committee (CEN). Shortly after the election, former VP candidate Juan Carlos Navarro called a press conference where he blamed Herrera for the PRD's defeat. The results of the May 3, 2009 general election have created a new alignment of the political parties in Panama, and the PRD will need a cohesive strategy to move forward as an effective opposition force. -------------- "El Toro" Calls for Resignation of the CEN -------------- ¶2. (U) Shortly following Martinelli's landslide presidential victory, former President Ernesto "El Toro" Perez Balladares publicly called for the resignation of the current members of the PRD's CEN, the governing board of the party. "If they have any decency, they will resign," El Toro asserted while adding that in 1999 after then-PRD presidential candidate, Martin Torrijos, was defeated by Mireya Moscoso for the presidency, members of the CEN resigned and new party leadership was elected. (Comment: The current CEN is composed of Secretary General Martin Torrijos, President Balbina Herrera, First VP Elias Castillo, Second VP Benjamin Colamarco, First Sub-Secretary Juan Carlos Navarro, Second Sub-Secretary Hector Aleman, Third Sub-Secretary Pedro Miguel Gonzalez, Fourth Sub-Secretary Belgis Castro, and Fifth Sub-Secretary Rodrigo Diaz). -------------- Balbina Declares Herself Opposition Leader -------------- ¶3. (U) "The Panamanian people have ratified that I am their opposition leader...I will lead a responsible and energetic opposition that will hold the new administration accountable for its promises," Balbina Herrera declared in her concession speech on the evening of May 3. She asserted that the CEN was elected to serve its term and the leadership will not change before the next CEN elections set for 2013. She then told the public that after a few days of rest, she would begin a country-wide tour to reconnect with the party's supporters throughout the country and prepare for 2014, suggesting that she is already eyeing the next presidential election. Nonetheless, Herrera admitted that the electoral process in the run-up to the 2009 presidential election was overly exhausting and said that general campaigns should not last longer than 45 days. -------------- Navarro Blames Balbina for Electoral Defeat -------------- ¶4. (U) "I understand that after she (Balbina) carried the PRD into an electoral disaster, she might feel a little resentful and beaten...but it is not correct to put personal ambitions before those of the country or the party," Juan Carlos Navarro told the press less than 24 hours after Herrera's electoral defeat in a clear move to distance himself from Herrera's loss and position himself for a prominent leadership role within the party. Navarro also took a swipe at President Torrijos by alluding to the press that the President had promoted the rupture of a pact which would have set up Navarro as the PRD's 2009 presidential candidate and designating Balbina Herrera to seek the mayorship of Panama City. Navarro called for a meeting of the CEN -- of which he serves as a member -- and for the party leadership to be held accountable for the leadership decisions which led the PRD to its "worst defeat in history" on May 3. -------------- -------------- PRD Reacts to Internal Spats, Martinelli's Tsunami -------------- -------------- ¶5. (SBU) "He (Navarro) had to come out publicly against Balbina because she had already said she was ready for 2014. He needs to stay ahead of her...after her huge loss, now is the time," re-elected PRD Deputy Miguel "Micky" Aleman told the Political Section, and added that he was thrilled with his re-election in San Miguelito. The PRD received quite a beating in the National Assembly, which they have controlled under the Torrijos administration. The PRD will hold far fewer seats in the National Assembly than the "Alliance for Change" coalition, which won 42 seats. Several PRD heavyweights will not have a presence in the legislature, including U.S. fugitive and former National Assembly President Pedro Miguel Gonzalez who lost his seat to the "Alliance for Change" candidate Francisco Brea. In fact, the only member of the CEN who will have a National Assembly presence will be Elias Castillo. Re-elected Local PRD representative from San Francisco, Carlos Perez Herrera, told the Political Section, "Thank goodness the tsunami did not hit me." -------------- Comment -------------- ¶6. (SBU) The PRD - Panama's largest and traditionally best organized political party - is suffering immensely from its resounding May 3 electoral defeat. Its internal, but sometimes very public, spats have been a focal point for local press coverage. The PRD will need a comprehensive and cohesive strategy that is agreed upon by the party's various factions to constructively move forward as a unified opposition force. Of the various factions in the PRD, Balbina Herrera and Hector Aleman form a group that tends to lean toward the left (Tendencia). Martin Torrijos, Samuel Lewis, and Juan Carlos Navarro generally comprise the moderate faction within the PRD. Ernesto "El Toro" Perez Balladares also leads a conservative group within the party. Navarro, however, is trying to peel away moderates toward the right of the spectrum to align with El Toro, most likely to better position Navarro for a presidential run in 2014. Lewis has already hinted at his presidential ambitions for 2014, telling the press that after the Torrijos administration steps down on July 1, he plans to return to his private business interests and then focus on politics. Finally, although Hector Aleman served as Balbina Herrera's campaign manager, the two now appear to be at odds. ¶7. (C) If the PRD continues to battle internally over its leadership and party direction, it could morph into a party with a very different organization, potentially altering its base of support. One possibility is that the moderate faction could disappear, leaving a polarized party battling between two extremes. Another possibility is that the leftist faction could eventually be pushed out of the party if the moderate and conservative factions gain enough clout. The PRD will need to come to grips and better compete within the new alignment of the political parties in Panama, which has resulted from the May 3, 2009 general elections. STEPHENSON