PANAMA: PRD SCRAMBLING AFTER SWEEPING ELECTORAL

C O N F I D E N T I A L PANAMA 000381

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/06/2019
TAGS: PGOV PM PREL
SUBJECT: PANAMA: PRD SCRAMBLING AFTER SWEEPING ELECTORAL
DEFEAT

Classified By: Classified by: Ambassador Barbara J. Stephenson for reas
ons 1.4(b) and (d).

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Summary
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1. (SBU) The Revolutionary Democratic Party (PRD) - Panama's
largest and traditionally best organized political party - is
suffering immensely from its resounding May 3 electoral
defeat. "Alliance for Change" candidate Ricardo Martinelli's
overwhelming victory over the PRD has caused the ruling party
to scramble as it attempts to come to terms with its
disappointing electoral results. Former presidential
candidate Balbina Herrera has declared herself the opposition
leader while former President Ernesto "El Toro" Perez
Balladares called for the resignation of the PRD's National
Executive Committee (CEN). Shortly after the election,
former VP candidate Juan Carlos Navarro called a press
conference where he blamed Herrera for the PRD's defeat. The
results of the May 3, 2009 general election have created a
new alignment of the political parties in Panama, and the PRD
will need a cohesive strategy to move forward as an effective
opposition force.


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"El Toro" Calls for Resignation of the CEN
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2. (U) Shortly following Martinelli's landslide presidential
victory, former President Ernesto "El Toro" Perez Balladares
publicly called for the resignation of the current members of
the PRD's CEN, the governing board of the party. "If they
have any decency, they will resign," El Toro asserted while
adding that in 1999 after then-PRD presidential candidate,
Martin Torrijos, was defeated by Mireya Moscoso for the
presidency, members of the CEN resigned and new party
leadership was elected. (Comment: The current CEN is
composed of Secretary General Martin Torrijos, President
Balbina Herrera, First VP Elias Castillo, Second VP Benjamin
Colamarco, First Sub-Secretary Juan Carlos Navarro, Second
Sub-Secretary Hector Aleman, Third Sub-Secretary Pedro Miguel
Gonzalez, Fourth Sub-Secretary Belgis Castro, and Fifth
Sub-Secretary Rodrigo Diaz).


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Balbina Declares Herself Opposition Leader
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3. (U) "The Panamanian people have ratified that I am their
opposition leader...I will lead a responsible and energetic
opposition that will hold the new administration accountable
for its promises," Balbina Herrera declared in her concession
speech on the evening of May 3. She asserted that the CEN
was elected to serve its term and the leadership will not
change before the next CEN elections set for 2013. She then
told the public that after a few days of rest, she would
begin a country-wide tour to reconnect with the party's
supporters throughout the country and prepare for 2014,
suggesting that she is already eyeing the next presidential
election. Nonetheless, Herrera admitted that the electoral
process in the run-up to the 2009 presidential election was
overly exhausting and said that general campaigns should not
last longer than 45 days.


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Navarro Blames Balbina for Electoral Defeat
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4. (U) "I understand that after she (Balbina) carried the PRD
into an electoral disaster, she might feel a little resentful
and beaten...but it is not correct to put personal ambitions
before those of the country or the party," Juan Carlos
Navarro told the press less than 24 hours after Herrera's
electoral defeat in a clear move to distance himself from
Herrera's loss and position himself for a prominent
leadership role within the party. Navarro also took a swipe
at President Torrijos by alluding to the press that the
President had promoted the rupture of a pact which would have
set up Navarro as the PRD's 2009 presidential candidate and
designating Balbina Herrera to seek the mayorship of Panama
City. Navarro called for a meeting of the CEN -- of which he
serves as a member -- and for the party leadership to be held

accountable for the leadership decisions which led the PRD to
its "worst defeat in history" on May 3.


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PRD Reacts to Internal Spats, Martinelli's Tsunami
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5. (SBU) "He (Navarro) had to come out publicly against
Balbina because she had already said she was ready for 2014.
He needs to stay ahead of her...after her huge loss, now is
the time," re-elected PRD Deputy Miguel "Micky" Aleman told
the Political Section, and added that he was thrilled with
his re-election in San Miguelito. The PRD received quite a
beating in the National Assembly, which they have controlled
under the Torrijos administration. The PRD will hold far
fewer seats in the National Assembly than the "Alliance for
Change" coalition, which won 42 seats. Several PRD
heavyweights will not have a presence in the legislature,
including U.S. fugitive and former National Assembly
President Pedro Miguel Gonzalez who lost his seat to the
"Alliance for Change" candidate Francisco Brea. In fact, the
only member of the CEN who will have a National Assembly
presence will be Elias Castillo. Re-elected Local PRD
representative from San Francisco, Carlos Perez Herrera, told
the Political Section, "Thank goodness the tsunami did not
hit me."

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Comment
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6. (SBU) The PRD - Panama's largest and traditionally best
organized political party - is suffering immensely from its
resounding May 3 electoral defeat. Its internal, but
sometimes very public, spats have been a focal point for
local press coverage. The PRD will need a comprehensive and
cohesive strategy that is agreed upon by the party's various
factions to constructively move forward as a unified
opposition force. Of the various factions in the PRD,
Balbina Herrera and Hector Aleman form a group that tends to
lean toward the left (Tendencia). Martin Torrijos, Samuel
Lewis, and Juan Carlos Navarro generally comprise the
moderate faction within the PRD. Ernesto "El Toro" Perez
Balladares also leads a conservative group within the party.
Navarro, however, is trying to peel away moderates toward the
right of the spectrum to align with El Toro, most likely to
better position Navarro for a presidential run in 2014.
Lewis has already hinted at his presidential ambitions for
2014, telling the press that after the Torrijos
administration steps down on July 1, he plans to return to
his private business interests and then focus on politics.
Finally, although Hector Aleman served as Balbina Herrera's
campaign manager, the two now appear to be at odds.


7. (C) If the PRD continues to battle internally over its
leadership and party direction, it could morph into a party
with a very different organization, potentially altering its
base of support. One possibility is that the moderate
faction could disappear, leaving a polarized party battling
between two extremes. Another possibility is that the
leftist faction could eventually be pushed out of the party
if the moderate and conservative factions gain enough clout.
The PRD will need to come to grips and better compete within
the new alignment of the political parties in Panama, which
has resulted from the May 3, 2009 general elections.

STEPHENSON