PANAMA: MARTINELLI WINS BIG

C O N F I D E N T I A L PANAMA 000357 SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/04/2019 TAGS: PGOV PREL PM SUBJECT: PANAMA: MARTINELLI WINS BIG Classified By: AMBASSADOR BARBARA J. STEPHENSON. REASONS: 1.4 (D). -------------- Summary -------------- ¶1. (SBU) The opposition's Alliance for Change presidential candidate Ricardo Martinelli defeated governing Revolutionary Democratic Party (PRD) candidate by over twenty points and more than 300,000 votes on May 3. Martinelli also appears to have wrested gained control of the 71-seat National Assembly from the PRD as his alliance is likely to win at least 37 seats. Martinelli called for all Panamanians to come together to work for the change on which he camapign. Herrera took responsibility for her loss and promised to lead the opposition. Torrijos congratulated Martinelli on this victory and announced they would meet on May 5 to begin the transition. Several seasoned PRD veterans -- including Pedro Miguel Gonzalez, who is under federal indictment in connection with the 1992 murder of a U.S. serviceman -- lost their National Assembly seats. Coming from behind, the opposition's Bosco Vallarino defeated the PRD's Bobby Velasquez to win the race for Mayor of Panama City, the country's second most important elected office. Embassy observers, as well as Organization of American States (OAS) observers and domestic observation missions. Martinelli will now face considerable challenge getting his administration up and running. -------------- Big Win for Martinelli -------------- ¶2. (SBU) Alliance for Change presidential candidate Ricardo Martinelli defeated governing Revoltionary Democratic Party (PRD) presidential candidate Balbina Herrera in a landslide on May 3. As of 11:00 pm on May 3, Panama's Electoral Tribunal (TE) reported that Martinelli had secured 60 percent fo the vote, and Herrera got 37 percent. Sinc the 1989 restoration of democracy, Martinelli is not only the first candidate to win by more than 50 percent of the vote but also the candidate to win by the largest margin (23 points). Herrera acknowledged her defeat in a short address at PRD headquarters shortly after the TE magistrates called Martinelli to inform him of his victory. Martinelli then made remarks to his supporters. In a brief televised statement, President Martin Torrijos congratulated Martinelli on his victory and said that he would meet with Martinelli on May 5 to begin the transition. Martinelli will be inaugurated on July 1. ¶3. (SBU) According to Panama City television broadcaster Telemetro on the morning of May 4, the unofficial results, reflecting unofficial reporting from 92.41 percent of the voting tables, were: Candidate: Percent: Votes: -------------- -------------- -------------- Ricardo Martinelli 60.31 886,819 Balbina Herrera 37.34 549,002 Guillermo Endara 2.35 34,551 Blank ballots 1.17 17,268 Spoiled ballots 1.90 27,923 Telemetro reported that 68.61 percent of voters or a total of 1,515,623 voters cast their ballots. Panama City leading daily La Prensa reported on May 4 that Martinelli's Democratic Change (CD) brought in 54 percent of the coalition's total votes while alliance partners the Panamenista Party acounted for 30.5 percent, the Movement of Liberal Republican Nationals (MOLIRENA) brought in 9.8 percent; and Patriotic Union (UP) delivered 5.5 percent of the total. Post will report final official results SEPTEL. -------------- -------------- Martinelli: Victory for "all the people of Panama" -------------- -------------- ¶4. (SBU) In a short victory speech to supporters on the evening of May 3, Martinelli said that his victory was a victory "of all the people of Panama." He called "on all those who opposed us, who are also Panamanians" to join him to "begin a new day, a day of change." Echoing calls made during the closing weeks of his campaign, Martinelli said, "We need to put our best minds, independents, the best PRD members because they have very good people too, the best members of this alliance, and all Panamanians" to the challenge of changing Panama. Concluding his remarks, he said, "We need all of you to make this change that Panama demands and wants to come true." ¶5. (SBU) In impromptu remarks to the press on May 4, Martinelli made news by giving his first indications regarding cabinet and other high-level appointments: -- Demetrio "Jimmy" Papadimitriu, his closest campaign advisor, would serve as Minister of the Presidency; -- Romulo de Roux would be Minister of Canal Affairs; -- Giselle de Calcagno, who broke with the PRD to support Martinelli, would remain at the helm of the Authority for Medium, Small, and Micro Enterprises (AMPYME); -- former FM in the Moscoso Administration Jaime Aleman would be Panama's Ambassador to the U.S.; and -- Gustavo Perez, Jr. would be named the Director of the Panamanian National Police (PNP). Additionally, he said he would offer morning television talk show host Lucy Molinar the Ministry of Education. Regarding the U.S.-Panama Free Trade Agreement, Martinelli simply noted, "We need to speak with the U.S. Ambassador." -------------- Balbina: "I am responsible" -------------- ¶6. (SBU) "The Panamanian people are sovereign, and I will respect their decision," Herrera stated on the evening of May 3 in making her concession speech that was marked primarily by her expressions of gratitude for her supporters and calls for the party to continue to fight for a better Panama. Responding to questions after her concession, Herrera said, "I am the only one responsible (for my electoral loss),I am the leader, I am the candidate. I will not blame anyone else. I am the candidate, and I assume responsibility for this campaign." Indirectly answering former President Ernesto "El Toro" Perez Balladares assertion that the PRD's National Executive Committee (CEN),of which Herrera is president, should resign, Herrera said, "No, we will continue. This executive committee was elected for five years, and we will respect that decision. Those who think that there will be changes in the party's leadership are mistaken." -------------- National Assembly Projections -------------- ¶7. (SBU) Early unofficial projections broadcast by RPC radio on May 4 indicated that the four-party Alliance for Change would win control of the National Assembly, though only by a slim margin. RPC reported that, the Alliance for Change would win at least 37 seats with the Panamenistas winning 19 seats, CD 12, UP 4, and MOLIRENA 2. The same radio broadcast, projected that the PRD would win 21 seats and its alliance partner, the Popular Party (PP),1 seat while former President Endara's Moral Vanguard of the Nation (VMP) party was projected to win 1 seat. Independents were projected to win 2 seats. These projections only accounted for 62 of the 71 seats in the National Assembly, however, as 8 other seats remained to be determined. ¶8. (SBU) Several PRD incumbents lost their seats, including most notably Pedro Miguel Gonzalez who is under U.S. federal indictment in connection with the 1992 murder of a U.S. serviceman in Panama. Additionally, current PRD National Assembly President Raul Rodriguez and Majority Leader Leandro Avila also lost re-election as did former National Assembly President Jerry Wilson. Torrijos Second VP Arosemena -- essentially the standard bearer for the PRD's minor alliance partner, the Popular Party -- failed to win a seat. -------------- Major Mayoral Races -------------- ¶9. (SBU) In the hotly contested Panama City Mayoral race, opposition candidate Bosco Vallarino appears to have come from behind to defeat PRD candidate Bobby Velasquez by a narrow but comfortable margin. With 1,004 of 1,162 voting tables reporting, CD/Panamenista/MOLIRENA candidate Bosco Vallarino held a comfortable lead with 45.47 percent of the vote and 139,957 votes ahead of PRD candidate Bobby Velasquez by 17,868 votes. La Prensa, noting that he had conceded defeated, reported on May 4 that Velasquez had won 40 percent of the vote. Meanwhile, UP candidate Miguel Antonio Bernal took 14 percent of the vote. ¶10. (SBU) PRD San Miguelito mayor Hector Carrasquilla, according to a May 4 broadcast by Telemetro, held on to win election in Panama's second largest municipality. With most voting tables reporting, Carrasquilla was leading the vote count by about 7,000 votes. -------------- The Transition Starts -------------- ¶11. (SBU) Shortly after Martinelli's victory speech, President Torrijos went on television and congratulated Martinelli on his victory. He noted that he had spoken with Martinelli and said that they would meet on May 5 to "begin the transition." Martinelli acknowledged that he would meet with Torrijos on May 5 and said he would be accompanied by VP-elect Juan Carlos Varela and Papadimitriu. -------------- Comment -------------- ¶12. (C) Exceeding the most optimistic predictions, Martinelli has won an enormous victory -- "a very big tsunami," he told international election observers. The scope of his victory will be become apparent in the coming days as National Assembly and local-level races are determined. Now, Martinelli must turn his attention to a much harder task than winning election: governing. It will be months before a functioning Martinelli Administration is up and running. He won with the support of a complex four-party alliance, he is aided by only a small handful of young advisors that he truly trusts, and yet will need to grapple with tough issues in the immediate to near-term, including efforts to secure U.S. ratification of the FTA and security matters in the Darien. He willl need consolidate his base of support with the alliance and possibly including reaching out to the PRD to build the consensus necessary to tackle challenges. STEPHENSON