PANAMA: MARTINELLI WINS BIG

C O N F I D E N T I A L PANAMA 000357

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/04/2019
TAGS: PGOV PREL PM
SUBJECT: PANAMA: MARTINELLI WINS BIG

Classified By: AMBASSADOR BARBARA J. STEPHENSON. REASONS: 1.4 (D).

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Summary
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1. (SBU) The opposition's Alliance for Change presidential
candidate Ricardo Martinelli defeated governing Revolutionary
Democratic Party (PRD) candidate by over twenty points and
more than 300,000 votes on May 3. Martinelli also appears to
have wrested gained control of the 71-seat National Assembly
from the PRD as his alliance is likely to win at least 37
seats. Martinelli called for all Panamanians to come
together to work for the change on which he camapign.
Herrera took responsibility for her loss and promised to lead
the opposition. Torrijos congratulated Martinelli on this
victory and announced they would meet on May 5 to begin the
transition. Several seasoned PRD veterans -- including Pedro
Miguel Gonzalez, who is under federal indictment in
connection with the 1992 murder of a U.S. serviceman -- lost
their National Assembly seats. Coming from behind, the
opposition's Bosco Vallarino defeated the PRD's Bobby
Velasquez to win the race for Mayor of Panama City, the
country's second most important elected office. Embassy
observers, as well as Organization of American States (OAS)
observers and domestic observation missions. Martinelli will
now face considerable challenge getting his administration up
and running.

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Big Win for Martinelli
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2. (SBU) Alliance for Change presidential candidate Ricardo
Martinelli defeated governing Revoltionary Democratic Party
(PRD) presidential candidate Balbina Herrera in a landslide
on May 3. As of 11:00 pm on May 3, Panama's Electoral
Tribunal (TE) reported that Martinelli had secured 60 percent
fo the vote, and Herrera got 37 percent. Sinc the 1989
restoration of democracy, Martinelli is not only the first
candidate to win by more than 50 percent of the vote but also
the candidate to win by the largest margin (23 points).
Herrera acknowledged her defeat in a short address at PRD
headquarters shortly after the TE magistrates called
Martinelli to inform him of his victory. Martinelli then
made remarks to his supporters. In a brief televised
statement, President Martin Torrijos congratulated Martinelli
on his victory and said that he would meet with Martinelli on
May 5 to begin the transition. Martinelli will be
inaugurated on July 1.


3. (SBU) According to Panama City television broadcaster
Telemetro on the morning of May 4, the unofficial results,
reflecting unofficial reporting from 92.41 percent of the
voting tables, were:

Candidate: Percent: Votes:
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Ricardo Martinelli 60.31 886,819
Balbina Herrera 37.34 549,002
Guillermo Endara 2.35 34,551
Blank ballots 1.17 17,268
Spoiled ballots 1.90 27,923

Telemetro reported that 68.61 percent of voters or a total of
1,515,623 voters cast their ballots. Panama City leading
daily La Prensa reported on May 4 that Martinelli's
Democratic Change (CD) brought in 54 percent of the
coalition's total votes while alliance partners the
Panamenista Party acounted for 30.5 percent, the Movement of
Liberal Republican Nationals (MOLIRENA) brought in 9.8
percent; and Patriotic Union (UP) delivered 5.5 percent of
the total. Post will report final official results SEPTEL.

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Martinelli: Victory for "all the people of Panama"
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4. (SBU) In a short victory speech to supporters on the
evening of May 3, Martinelli said that his victory was a
victory "of all the people of Panama." He called "on all
those who opposed us, who are also Panamanians" to join him
to "begin a new day, a day of change." Echoing calls made
during the closing weeks of his campaign, Martinelli said,
"We need to put our best minds, independents, the best PRD
members because they have very good people too, the best
members of this alliance, and all Panamanians" to the
challenge of changing Panama. Concluding his remarks, he
said, "We need all of you to make this change that Panama
demands and wants to come true."


5. (SBU) In impromptu remarks to the press on May 4,
Martinelli made news by giving his first indications
regarding cabinet and other high-level appointments:

-- Demetrio "Jimmy" Papadimitriu, his closest campaign
advisor, would serve as Minister of the Presidency;
-- Romulo de Roux would be Minister of Canal Affairs;
-- Giselle de Calcagno, who broke with the PRD to support
Martinelli, would remain at the helm of the Authority for
Medium, Small, and Micro Enterprises (AMPYME);
-- former FM in the Moscoso Administration Jaime Aleman would
be Panama's Ambassador to the U.S.; and
-- Gustavo Perez, Jr. would be named the Director of the
Panamanian National Police (PNP).

Additionally, he said he would offer morning television talk
show host Lucy Molinar the Ministry of Education. Regarding
the U.S.-Panama Free Trade Agreement, Martinelli simply
noted, "We need to speak with the U.S. Ambassador."

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Balbina: "I am responsible"
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6. (SBU) "The Panamanian people are sovereign, and I will
respect their decision," Herrera stated on the evening of
May 3 in making her concession speech that was marked
primarily by her expressions of gratitude for her supporters
and calls for the party to continue to fight for a better
Panama. Responding to questions after her concession,
Herrera said, "I am the only one responsible (for my
electoral loss),I am the leader, I am the candidate. I will
not blame anyone else. I am the candidate, and I assume
responsibility for this campaign." Indirectly answering
former President Ernesto "El Toro" Perez Balladares assertion
that the PRD's National Executive Committee (CEN),of which
Herrera is president, should resign, Herrera said, "No, we
will continue. This executive committee was elected for five
years, and we will respect that decision. Those who think
that there will be changes in the party's leadership are
mistaken."

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National Assembly Projections
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7. (SBU) Early unofficial projections broadcast by RPC radio
on May 4 indicated that the four-party Alliance for Change
would win control of the National Assembly, though only by a
slim margin. RPC reported that, the Alliance for Change
would win at least 37 seats with the Panamenistas winning 19
seats, CD 12, UP 4, and MOLIRENA 2. The same radio
broadcast, projected that the PRD would win 21 seats and its
alliance partner, the Popular Party (PP),1 seat while former
President Endara's Moral Vanguard of the Nation (VMP) party
was projected to win 1 seat. Independents were projected to
win 2 seats. These projections only accounted for 62 of the
71 seats in the National Assembly, however, as 8 other seats
remained to be determined.


8. (SBU) Several PRD incumbents lost their seats, including
most notably Pedro Miguel Gonzalez who is under U.S. federal
indictment in connection with the 1992 murder of a U.S.
serviceman in Panama. Additionally, current PRD National
Assembly President Raul Rodriguez and Majority Leader Leandro
Avila also lost re-election as did former National Assembly
President Jerry Wilson. Torrijos Second VP Arosemena --
essentially the standard bearer for the PRD's minor alliance
partner, the Popular Party -- failed to win a seat.

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Major Mayoral Races
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9. (SBU) In the hotly contested Panama City Mayoral race,
opposition candidate Bosco Vallarino appears to have come
from behind to defeat PRD candidate Bobby Velasquez by a
narrow but comfortable margin. With 1,004 of 1,162 voting
tables reporting, CD/Panamenista/MOLIRENA candidate Bosco
Vallarino held a comfortable lead with 45.47 percent of the
vote and 139,957 votes ahead of PRD candidate Bobby Velasquez
by 17,868 votes. La Prensa, noting that he had conceded
defeated, reported on May 4 that Velasquez had won 40 percent
of the vote. Meanwhile, UP candidate Miguel Antonio Bernal
took 14 percent of the vote.


10. (SBU) PRD San Miguelito mayor Hector Carrasquilla,
according to a May 4 broadcast by Telemetro, held on to win
election in Panama's second largest municipality. With most
voting tables reporting, Carrasquilla was leading the vote
count by about 7,000 votes.

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The Transition Starts
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11. (SBU) Shortly after Martinelli's victory speech,
President Torrijos went on television and congratulated
Martinelli on his victory. He noted that he had spoken with
Martinelli and said that they would meet on May 5 to "begin
the transition." Martinelli acknowledged that he would meet
with Torrijos on May 5 and said he would be accompanied by
VP-elect Juan Carlos Varela and Papadimitriu.

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Comment
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12. (C) Exceeding the most optimistic predictions, Martinelli
has won an enormous victory -- "a very big tsunami," he told
international election observers. The scope of his victory
will be become apparent in the coming days as National
Assembly and local-level races are determined. Now,
Martinelli must turn his attention to a much harder task than
winning election: governing. It will be months before a
functioning Martinelli Administration is up and running. He
won with the support of a complex four-party alliance, he is
aided by only a small handful of young advisors that he truly
trusts, and yet will need to grapple with tough issues in the
immediate to near-term, including efforts to secure U.S.
ratification of the FTA and security matters in the Darien.
He willl need consolidate his base of support with the
alliance and possibly including reaching out to the PRD to
build the consensus necessary to tackle challenges.
STEPHENSON