PANAMA: MARTINELLI ADVISER WEIGHS IN ON ELECTION

C O N F I D E N T I A L PANAMA 000348

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/29/2019
TAGS: PGOV PM PREL
SUBJECT: PANAMA: MARTINELLI ADVISER WEIGHS IN ON ELECTION
DAY

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Summary
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1. (C) Dennis Allen, former Electoral Tribune (TE) magistrate
and current "electoral process adviser" to Alliance for
Change presidential candidate Ricardo Martinelli ran down for
the Political Section his vision of how Panama's May 3
elections will play out. Although the election would
probably proceed without major incident, Allen worried that a
close vote would cause the loser, whom be believed would be
Balbina Herrera of the ruling Revolutionary Democratic Party
(PRD),to cry foul. Technical innovations to the tabulation
system are being used for the first time, and he was
concerned about potential failures and mistakes. Allen also
noted that the Panamenista Party was mounting an effort to
drive up its participation on election day in a campaign to
improve VP candidate and Panamenista Party President Juan
Carlos Varela's stature within the Alliance, and that the
Martinelli camp would need to lean heavily on the
Panamenistas for organizational support on election day. End
summary.

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Mapping out May 3
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2. (C) Allen explained that although the campaign had been
"too conflictive," he did not expect violence beyond minor or
isolated incidents. Allen was more concerned about the
potential for tabulation confusion or errors. The TE is
using a new Wireless Application Protocol (WAP) system to
tally the votes, and Allen expressed concern over the
potential for computer crashes and counting or typographical
errors by the 20,000 TE inspectors. Under the new system, TE
inspectors send via cellphone a text-message of voting
results to a central location where they are automatically
entered into computer software to be tabulated. (Note: In
the past, TE inspectors called the TE operation center and
reported the tallies verbally; this system allowed for a
verbal confirmation of the correct number that is lacking
under the WAP system.) "If the vote is close," Allen feared,
"this new method will be called into question and the loser
may challenge the whole thing." Since the present election
is particularly tense, Allen opined that this may not be the
best time to debut the new system. He hoped that to avoid
such potential problems the victor won by "at least 20,000
votes so the PRD cannot cry fraud and challenge the results."
Allen revealed that Martinelli's Democratic Change (CD)
party polls indicate that Martinelli would win by 100,000
votes, but admitted that Panamenista Party polls showed a
smaller margin of victory. (Note: 2.2 million Panamanians
are registered to vote; local analysts predict 75% turnout.)
In any case, Allen hoped that the loser would concede soon
after the prelimQry results are released between 7:00 and
8:00 PM. He added that his team was prepared to call
President Martin Torrijos to push Herrera to concede if she
fails to do so within an acceptable timeframe, in order to
"maintain calm and relieve anxiety."

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Panamenistas: Check the right box
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3. (C) According to Allen, Panamenista leaders are mounting
efforts to ensure that their supporters vote for Martinelli
under the Panamenista banner in order to give Varela
increased negotiating power should the ticket emerge
victorious. (Note: Panamanians casting a vote for Martinelli
must do so under the banner of one of the four parties that
comprise the Alliance for Change; the logic is that the
better-represented parties would hold more sway in a
Martinelli presidency.) The Panamenistas are also in charge
of the Alliance's own election-day tabulation system that
will "run parallel to the TE." According to Allen, "Although
Martinelli has thousands of independent volunteers, they lack
experience. It is the Panamenistas who have the structure to
deliver on election day."

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Comment
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4. (C) Panama's TE is reputable, and the election will most
likely proceed without major incident. As in any election,
there exists in Panama the potential for TE officials to
mis-report vote results and therefore produce errors in the
preliminary tally. But there is no reason to believe that

this would occur, or that TE officials would purposefully
manipulate the results. Similarly, computer failure is
always a possibility, but there is no compelling reason to
think that one will occur on May 3. Given these "what if"
scenarios, and since the system is new, there does exist the
possibility that some candidates will refuse to concede on
the pretext that electronic mistakes have skewed the results.
But we predict that Martinelli will secure victory by a wide
enough margin in the presidential contest to prevent any
serious allegations of errors or fraud.


5. (C) Allen's comments on the Panamenistas' efforts to boost
their vote tallies tracks with analysts' comments to the
Political Section over the past few weeks. A key dynamic in
a Martinelli presidency will be the relationship between the
Panamenistas, the country's well-established, second-largest
party, and the upstart CD party. Especially with the
failures of the PRD this electoral season, the Panamenistas
are looking down the road to the 2014 election, and want to
try to position Varela such that he can exert authority and
influence in a Martinelli administration. Martinelli's
"autocratic" decision-making style, coupled with what we
expect to be a strong mandate granted to Martinelli on May 3,
however, will likely mitigate Panamenista influence in the
new government; a sizable Panamenista turnout would force
Martinelli to reckon more with the Panamenistas than he might
be inclined to otherwise.
STEPHENSON