PANAMA: FINAL POLL RESULTS: MARTINELLI HOLDING

C O N F I D E N T I A L PANAMA 000338

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/23/2019
TAGS: PGOV PM
SUBJECT: PANAMA: FINAL POLL RESULTS: MARTINELLI HOLDING
STRONG

Classified By: Amb. Barbara J. Stephenson for reason 1.4(b)


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Summary
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1. (U) With Panama's May 3 elections just nine days away,
Alliance for Change opposition presidential candidate Ricardo
Martinelli holds a twelve to sixteen point lead over
Revolutionary Democratic Party (PRD) candidate Balbina
Herrera, according to the final presidential polling data
from Dichter and Neira, Unimer and Ipsos. Despite
indications early this month that Herrera might have been
closing the gap with Martinelli's lead, the closing numbers
confirm a pattern that has held for several weeks: Martinelli
continues to enjoy a double digit lead and roughly 50 percent
of voter preference.

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Herrera Not Closing the Gap
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2. (U) Since the last week in February, Martinelli has
maintained between 49 and 52 percent of voter preference in
Dichter and Neira's presidential poll, and Herrera has held
steady between 34 and 37 percent. These numbers were within
the poll's roughly 3 point margin of error, indicating that
voters had not moved significantly in either direction for
the last six weeks. In its final survey, Dichter and Neira
forced voters to choose between candidates in a voting
simulation and eliminated spoiled and blank ballots. The
result was a last minute surge for both candidates, with
Martinelli up four points, topping off with an impressive 55
percent of voter preference and Herrera up five points,
closing the polls at 41 percent. According to Dichter and
Neira, Martinelli continues to firmly hold a roughly 15 point
lead.


3. (U) In a poll question from IPSOS earlier this month
involving a mock vote, Herrera initially gained two points
from early March, moving from 33 to 35 percent of voter
preference, while Martinelli lost four points, slipping from
50 to 46 percent. This lowered Martinelli's lead to only
nine points where he had previously enjoyed a 17 point
advantage. Martinelli closed the gap in the latest Ipsos
poll, however, bringing his numbers back up to 51 percent in
the mock vote question while Herrera held at 35 percent. When
asked in the same poll who they would vote for if the
elections were held this Sunday, 49 percent of respondents
indicated Martinelli, while only 33 percent selected Herrera.
Either way the question was presented, voters gave
Martinelli a 16 point lead over Herrera in Ipsos's final poll
and Herrera experienced no last minute rally.


4. (U) Unimer was somewhat of an outlier, continuing in its
final poll to show Herrera closing the gap somewhat on
Martinelli's lead. According to the Unimer poll, Herrera
trailed behind Martinelli by seventeen points in early March.
The latest numbers cut Martinelli's lead to 11.9 points,
indicating that Herrera has edged increasingly upward while
Martinelli has held firm. According to Unimer, Martinelli
now holds 50.2 percent of voter preference and Herrera 38.3
percent.

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Public Perception
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5. (U) According to the Unimer poll, 40.9 percent of
respondents feel that the PRD is the better organized party,
with just 33.6 percent finding CD to be more organized.
Organizational skills aside, an overwhelming 57.3 percent of
respondents think that Martinelli will be the next president
of Panama; only 22.9 percent think that Herrera will win the
election. Indeed, Herrera is the most rejected candidate in
the Unimer poll, with 40.9 percent of respondents saying they
will not vote for her and only 27.2 percent of respondents
rejecting Martinelli out of hand. A similar question asked
in the Ipsos poll yielded yet more discouraging news for
Herrera, with 41 percent of respondents indicating they would
never vote for her and only 31 percent of voters indicating
that they would never vote for Martinelli.


6. (U) Panama's La Estrella newspaper reported on April 23
that both political analysts and polling firms tended to

agree that the numbers have been firm since February and were
not NOW likely to change significantly. According to the
pundits, any last minute arguments of a technical draw
between the two candidates would be unrealistic.

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COMMENT
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7. (SBU) Martinelli is likely to be the first president
elected in Panama since the 1989 restoration of democracy to
secure more than 50 percent support at the ballot box.
Furthermore, many analysts and political leaders believe
Martinelli's four party coalition will take control of the
National Assembly as well as make sufficient in-roads at the
local level in mayoral and city council races. Indeed, for
the first time in this campaign, Martinelli's candidate for
mayor of Panama City, Bosco Vallarino, is leading his PRD
opponent, Bobby Valasquez, Jr., by four points. A Martinelli
victory will have a seismic effect on Panamanian politics.
The strength of the Martinelli seismic event will be measured
on the Panamanian political Richter scale in terms of the
numbers of National Assembly deputies, mayors and city
councilmen that Martinelli's alliance puts into office.

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Technical Data
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8. (U) Dichter and Neira conducted 1,200 interviews of men
and women over the age of 18 who are residents of Panama.
The poll was conducted nationally, including the indigenous
people's autonomous regions (comarcas) of the Ngobe Bugle and
Madungandi but excluding the remote and difficult to reach
Darien Province. Interviews were conducted face-to-face in
individuals' homes from Saturday, April 18 to Sunday, April

19. Sampling was multi-staged. The first stage distributed
the total sample according to population by province as well
as rural and urban precincts, and in the second stage blocks
were randomly selected and homes were first randomly and then
systematically selected. The margin of error for the poll
was assessed at /- 3.5 percent in Panama City and /- 2.9
percent in other areas with an overall confidence level of 95
percent. Unimer conducted 1,600 face to face interviews of
residents of Panama between the ages of 18 and 75 at all
economic levels on Wednesday, April 15 to Friday, April 17.
The poll was conducted nationally in urban and semiurban
zones except in the remote and difficult to reach Darien
Province and indigenous people's autonomous regions
(comarcas). The margin of error was 2.5 percent with a
confidence level of 95 percent. Ipsos interviewed 3,014
residents of Panama over the age of 18 on Thursday, April 16
to Saturday, April 19 in their homes. Interviews took place
in rural and urban areas except in the remote and difficult
to reach Darien Province and indigenous people's autonomous
regions (comarcas). The margin of error was /- 2 percent in
some districts and /- 4 percent in others, with a confidence
level of 95 percent.
STEPHENSON