PANAMA: MARTINELLI PLAYS PRESIDENT TO FRIENDLY

C O N F I D E N T I A L PANAMA 000316 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/15/2019 TAGS: ECON PGOV PM PREL SUBJECT: PANAMA: MARTINELLI PLAYS PRESIDENT TO FRIENDLY CROWD Classified By: Classified by Ambassador Barbara J. Stephenson, for reas ons 1.4(b) and (d). -------------- Summary -------------- ¶1. (C) The Foundation for the Development of Citizen Liberty, Panama's Transparency International (TI) chapter, hosted an untelevised "Presidential Candidates Forum" on April 14. Though dubbed as a forum for both leading candidates, only Alliance for Change presidential candidate Ricardo Martinelli showed. Ruling Revolutionary Democratic Party (PRD) presidential candidate Balbina Herrera, trailing Martinelli in the polls by 15 points, cited a previous engagement and pulled out of the forum. An at-ease Martinelli had the stage to himself and fielded soft-ball questions from the Foundation's moderators in front of an audience stacked with candidates from Martinelli's own Democratic Change (CD) party. Martinelli largely reiterated his standard talking points to this very friendly crowd and did little to shed light on his plans to transition the Alliance for Change campaign team into a governing apparatus. End summary. -------------- Martinelli love-fest -------------- ¶2. (SBU) "It is a shame that Herrera chose not to come today, because her government plan is short on anti-corruption plans, and this would be a good chance to hear what she plans to do about it," announced Angelica Maytin, Executive President of Panama's chapter of Transparency International (TI),after explaining that a "prior commitment" had forced Herrera to cancel. Martinelli faced a very friendly crowd that broke into applause three times -- POL estimates that two-thirds of the 100 attendees were CD candidates for various offices -- and was not challenged by any of the questions. ¶3. (SBU) TI Panama Chapter President and moderator Roberto "Bobby" Eisenmann, a former leader of the anti-Noriega Civil Crusade and a die-hard anti-PRD independent, requested that Martinelli speak "as if the campaign were over, you do not have to worry about votes, and you are sitting in the president's chair and must now govern the country." A relaxed Martinelli, dressed casually in khakis and a button-down campaign shirt proceeded to carry on a conversation with the moderators that was more collegial than revealing. Martinelli worked his accustomed territory; he jabbed at PRD shortcomings in poverty reduction ("Just five minutes from here, there are communities without running water") and education ("The school-buildings are falling apart, classes started weeks late."). He noted that Herrera's proposal to require visas of Colombian citizens in an effort to reduce crime was misguided and would be ineffectual, re-iterated his commitment to repeal the Torrijos Administration's security sector reform laws, and plugged his own "integral" approach to crime, the Safe Streets (Calles Seguras) program. Martinelli asserted that civil society would play an expanded role in his administration and explained that he did not participate in the National Dialogue for Development (Concertacion Nacional para el Desarollo) because he felt that there were too many "disguised" PRD loyalists involved in the process. (Note: The Concertacion produced in 2007 a document written by government officials and leaders of civil society, business, and religious groups advocating proposals to overcome societal inequities. It is widely referenced as a solid long-term development strategy. Eisenmann noted that Martinelli's running mate and president of the Panamenista Party, Juan Carlos Varela did participate in the Concertacion process.) -------------- Connecting the dots with Papadimitriu -------------- ¶4. (SBU) Martinelli's comments were peppered with references to the U.S., including admiration for President Obama's new conflict of interest guidelines that bar new officials from making policy on matters involving former employers or from working at an agency that they had lobbied within the last two years. When Eisenmann asked how he would control his cabinet ("Unlike in the U.S. -- where the Secretaries serve the President -- here, once someone is a Minister they start thinking about becoming President themselves."),Martinelli replied that he had to have people he could trust and who can work together. He referred to Steve Jobs' (CEO of Apple Computers) "connect the dots" explanation of his own success wherein seemingly disparate elements come together to form a bigger picture or accomplishment. Building on this thought, Martinelli confirmed the wide speculation that his chief adviser Jimmy Papadimitriu would indeed serve as his Minster of the Presidency in the event that he won the election. A slightly more surprising announcement from Martinelli was that Papadimitriu would also simultaneously serve as Martinelli's chief of staff. -------------- Top down change, that's the ticket -------------- ¶5. (SBU) "Panama's is a presidentialist system, if you put someone at the top who wants the government to work well -- and cleanly -- then it will. I want to have the cleanest government in the world, and the only way to change it is to change the head," said Martinelli in response to a question on whether he would succeed in bringing more accountability to the government. He further noted that the CD party was "working hard" to win a majority in the National Assembly, but also asserted that he would revise the Assembly's budget and the privileges that deputies enjoy in a push for more accountability. He went on to promise to bring to justice anyone found complicit in corruption, including members of his own government. -------------- Comment -------------- ¶6. (C) Rather than presenting direct policy questions, the moderators lobbed soft-ball, open-ended questions, to which Martinelli responded by re-treading well-worn territory: his rhetoric of "change" and responsible, renewed leadership. Martinelli's "change the head" statement summarizes his approach to the campaign; his appeals to reform and change are largely couched in terms of his image as a strong, independent leader who "owes no one" and therefore has the freedom to make bold, common-sense, and positive changes. But the gab session shed scant additional light on how he will approach appointments and the business of governing without an established party apparatus. Where he did state a position -- for example, in his reiteration of his intention to repeal the security reform laws which created the Frontier Force (SENAFRONT) we regard as essential to denying the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) safe haven in the Darien -- we in the embassy were hardly reassured that his "pro-American" label will carry through on issues of importance to us. Likewise, Martinelli has not answered the key question of how he plans to strike a balance among his Alliance partners and turn his (to date) successful campaign partnership into a feasible governing team. (Note: Martinelli's campaign website now features a page where job-seekers can enter their resumes to be considered for positions in the "Government for Change.") Post expects that Martinelli would need to confront conflicting interests and political ambitions across the five parties that make up his Alliance for Change if his ticket wins the election. ¶7. (C) Papadimitriu would probably serve unofficially as a presidential chief of staff, a position with little prior history in Panama. Rather then creating the position, Martinelli would likely appoint Papadimitriu to be Minister of the Presidency. Regardless of title, Papadimitriu will continue to serve as Martinelli's leading overall go-to guy in the campaign and beyond. While Papadimitriu has fulfilled Martinelli's campaign needs, he has never served in the government; serving a dual role of Minister of the Presidency and chief of staff may prove to be more than he can chew. While we have warm relations with Papadimitriu, who is sometimes described as "a nice kid," we are well aware of his limits. What is more, delegating these two important duties to Papadimitriu indicates over reliance on a single individual, and signals a worrying lack of preparation on the part of the Martinelli camp in terms of the transition from the campaign trail to the president's chair. STEPHENSON