PANAMA: WITH POLLS LOCKED, MARTINELLI MAINTAINS 15

UNCLAS PANAMA 000308

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PM
SUBJECT: PANAMA: WITH POLLS LOCKED, MARTINELLI MAINTAINS 15
POINT LEAD

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Summary
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1. (U) Democratic Change (CD) opposition presidential
candidate Ricardo Martinelli continues to hold a 15 point
lead over Revolutionary Democratic Party (PRD) candidate
Balbina Herrera for the third week running, according to
Dichter and Neira's presidential poll for the first week of
April. With Panama's May 3 presidential election less than
three weeks away, the polls have remained virtually static
for the last six weeks.

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No Change
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2. (SBU) Since the last week in February, Martinelli has
maintained between 49 and 52 percent of voter preference in
Dichter and Neira's presidential poll, with Herrera holding
steady between 34 and 37 percent. These numbers are within
the poll's roughly 3 point margin of error, indicating that
voters have not been moved in any direction for the last six
weeks. Notably, extensive reports in the press that alleged
Colombian money launderer David Murcia contributed $3 Million
USD to Herrera's campaign, and the subsequent lifting of her
immunity by the Electoral Tribunal, did not impact Herrera,s
support, indicating the strength of Herrera's PRD base.

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Young and Poor
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3. (SBU) In a breakdown of voters by age, Martinelli leads
in every group, especially among the youngest; Martinelli
holds a 19 point lead over Herrera among 18 to 30 year olds,
a group that accounts for nearly half of the electorate.
Martinelli also holds commanding leads in every income group,
but the leads are highest amongst the lowest earners: 17
points among those who earn less than $400 USD per month; 12
points among those who earn between $400 and $1,000 USD per
month and 10 points among those who earn more than $1,000 USD
per month. These results suggest that Martinelli is cleaning
up among those the PRD considers its home turf, namely young
and lower income voters. That his numbers are weaker among
older, wealthier voters may indicate that Martinelli is a
real challenge to the established political order.

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Technical Data
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4. (U) Dichter and Neira conducted 1,200 interviews of men
and women over the age of 18 who are residents of Panama.
The poll was conducted nationally, except in the remote and
difficult to reach Darien Province and indigenous people's
autonomous regions (comarcas). Interviews were conducted
face-to-face in individuals' homes from Friday, April 3 to
Sunday, April 5. Sampling was multi-staged. The first stage
distributed the total sample according to population by
province as well as rural and urban precincts, and in the
second stage blocks were randomly selected and homes were
first randomly and then systematically selected. The margin
of error for the poll was assessed at /- 2.9 percent with a
confidence level of 95 percent.
STEPHENSON