AMBASSADOR'S REFLECTIONS ON BURKINA FASO'S

C O N F I D E N T I A L OUAGADOUGOU 000145 FROM AMBASSADOR JACKSON E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/05/2019 TAGS: PREL PGOV UV SUBJECT: AMBASSADOR'S REFLECTIONS ON BURKINA FASO'S LEADERSHIP Classified By: Ambassador Jeanine Jackson for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). -------------- Summary -------------- ¶1. (C) The future of Burkina Faso is firmly in the hands of two men: President Blaise Compaore and Prime Minister Tertius Zongo. As I prepare to leave post after three years, it is my assessment that this leadership team is generally moving the country in the right direction, but we will need to push, press, cajole and work with them to continue the progress. This cable represents my views on Compaore and Zongo, and offers a few suggestions of how we might best engage them. End Summary. -------------- -------------- THE PRESIDENT - The leopard that changed his spots... at least for now. -------------- -------------- ¶2. (C) Now in his 21st year as President, Blaise Compaore is taking Burkina Faso, a country wracked by extreme poverty, in the right direction: moving forward on the process of democratization, working with donors and others to ensure the nation's economic stability, turning the page on the negative regional role Burkina played in the past, and seeking better relations with the United States -- in part to balance Burkina's long-time partners including Libya, Cuba and France. ¶3. (C) Compaore's democratic credentials are mixed. He overwhelmingly won re-election in November 2005 in voting that was free but not particularly fair due to the vast resources of his Congress for Democracy and Progress (CDP) party and the weaknesses of the excessively numerous opposition parties. The CDP party won 73 of the 111 legislative seats in the May 2007 elections, and allied parties a further 25 seats. The country's first municipal elections were also dominated by the ruling party but on the positive side, many women were elected. Compaore has personally and successfully promoted women's issues, HIV/AIDS programs and actively supported rural development. ¶4. (C) During my private conversations with him, I have found him to be extremely serious, genuine, and well-informed. I am told that his closest advisors love working for him. While he and they work extremely long hours, travel frequently and host many visitors, he regularly finds time to draw them onto the soccer field to relieve stress. He was originally influenced to improve his image by these same 
people and they are the ones who could convince him to leave office gracefully in 2015 - or to stay on to keep the country on the right path. -------------- Succession Remains Uncertain -------------- ¶5. (C) I think it is almost certain that President Compaore will stand for reelection in 2010 and win overwhelmingly. No other person in the country has anything approaching his resources, popularity, and influence -- and now he also has a degree of international recognition. Certainly one of the reasons that he favors closer ties with the United States is to strengthen his international standing and consequently to bolster his position domestically. The key election will not be 2010 but 2015. Compaore, who under the present constitution will be barred from running again in 2015, will have to decide whether he can truly see a future for himself as a private citizen. He can choose to go the way of many other African leaders by changing the constitution (again) or by gracefully retiring to become a senior African statesman and troubleshooter. ¶6. (C) Many observers believe that Compaore will indeed modify the constitution in order to run for another term in 2015, following Quadafi's assertion that 'if a president is right for the country, a constitution should be changed to keep him in power.' (NOTE: To change the constitution requires only 15,000 signatures and a two-thirds majority in the National Assembly. END NOTE) Other factors that may make it difficult for the President to cede power include Compaore's alleged human rights abuses in the 1980's and 90's which could come back to haunt him if he were succeeded by someone not closely aligned with him and/or his party. In addition, loyalists, who may have profited from Compaore's Presidency in terms of favoritism for contracts and high level positions, are likely to encourage him to run again in ¶2015. ¶7. (C) If Compaore does cede power the question arises: who could take his place? Recent speculation is that his brother, Francois Compaore, could be the successor. While Francois is a well-educated economist and adviser to the President, he is not at all popular across Burkina society because of his alleged involvement in the killing of a respected journalist, Norbert Zongo, in 1998. He is also perceived to be corrupt. So it is unlikely that the President would endorse his brother and risk losing popularity. Several years ago it appeared that President Compaore had begun grooming Gilbert Ouedraogo as a potential successor. Ouedraogo is the current Transportation Minister, son of a former President, and head of the opposition party, the ADF/RDA (Rassemblement Democratique Africain/l"Alliance pour la Democratie et la Federation). The ADF/RDA is aligned with the President but is critical of the government on a number of domestic issues. It is no longer evident that Ouedraogo remains a favorite potential successor. (COMMENT: Ouedraogo participated in the International Visitor program and has a very positive opinion of the U.S. END COMMENT) 8 (C) Any potential for a democratic succession is rendered more difficult in the context that there are more than 130 political parties. Many of them operate without resources or platforms. Coalitions are built only to split apart. Most viable opposition parties are generally aligned with the President and the CDP. But the ruling CDP has also experienced significant internal strife and is being held together by the personality of the President. The President and Prime Minister have assured me that they are serious about holding free and fair elections but the weakness of the parties will make that a real challenge. -------------- THE PRIME MINISTER - An Example of Leadership -------------- ¶9. (C) Compaore appointed his former Ambassador to Washington, Tertius Zongo, as his Prime Minister in June, ¶2007. This demonstrated his desire to continue to improve U.S.-Burkina Faso relations and to build on the close and constructive professional relationship Zongo had with U.S. Government officials, congresspersons and the U.S. business community. ¶10. (C) Prime Minister Zongo should write a book called "The Leadership Secrets of Tertius Zongo." He was a dynamic Ambassador to the U.S. but even the most skeptical citizens and donors are astonished by what he has accomplished in 18 months as Prime Minister. He has a no-nonsense approach and has focused on fighting corruption at all levels; making education his highest priority; connecting the government with the people throughout the country; choosing the right ministers and teaching them how to improve efficiency by using American "management by objectives" principles; and consulting with bilateral and international donors on key issues. As the prime mover to make Burkina Faso eligible for a MCC compact, he continues to use the results of the 17 MCC performance indicators as a guide to prioritize his focus. Zongo knows just how far he can push the government and private sector to reduce corruption without ruffling too many feathers among the most powerful government and business leaders. A long-time civil servant, Zongo is not a likely Presidential candidate in 2015. -------------- Comment -------------- ¶11. (C) It is not clear to me whether Compaore and Zongo can pull off the transition to a more stable, long-term democratic system. I think Zongo clearly wants to, and Compaore could be convinced to move towards real democracy and democratic institutions if he believes that he will have a personal future in such a system and that the country will not fall into chaos. If we push, press, cajole and work with them to continue the progress, we may actually succeed in helping them turn this country into a long-term success story. It would not be easy, but certainly worth the effort. JACKSON