GUINEA - A NEGOTIATING DEBACLE IN OUAGADOUGOU

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 OUAGADOUGOU 001048



SIPDIS



E.O. 12928: DECL: 11/18/2014

TAGS: PREL, PGOV, GV, UV

SUBJ: GUINEA - A NEGOTIATING DEBACLE IN OUAGADOUGOU



Classified by Charge d'Affaires Dennis Hankins for reasons 1.4 (b and

d)



1. (C) Summary: The second round on Guinean talks in Ouagadougou

ended as a public relations fiasco for the Burkinabe with the CNDD

claiming victory. The mediation is trying to downplay the

significance of its seven point "non-paper" meant to stimulate debate

but, according to the Burkinabe, inappropriately and inaccurately

publicized by the two parties as a formal mediation proposal. The

Burkinabe recognize that the details of the Head of State and senior

leadership of any transition governments remain key to any solution

with the two sides, for now, still diametrically opposed relative to

the role of Dadis. Lacking leverage to impose a solution, Compaore

can only wait for one or both of the two sides to give him some

leeway to work with -- he may walk away from the process. The

Burkinabe worry that international pressure tends more to harden

Dadis' position than to force him out. End Summary



2. (C) Not Meant As A Mediation Proposal: Charge spoke morning of

November 21 with MFA Cabinet Director Vincent Zakane concerning the

second round of Burkinabe-sponsored talks on Guinea held November 18

- 21 in Ouagadougou. A clearly frustrated Zakane told Charge that

neither the CNDD nor the Forces Vives had stuck to the intent of the

meeting. Zakane explained that in this round, Compaore had only

meant to present a seven-point "non-paper" that highlighted areas on

convergence and disagreement between the position papers he had

previously received from the two sides. Stressing that the paper was

cleared by the UN and AU before being presented, Zakane said the

paper included a section on transition modalities that was meant to

serve as a discussion point - not as a mediation proposal. Zakane

acknowledged that the point followed that reported in the press -- a

Transition Government headed by Dadis as President with the Prime

Minister coming from the Forces Vives and with the condition that the

two leaders would have to resign four months before any elections

should they want to present themselves as a presidential candidate.

Zakane complained that neither side "played the game" of using the

"non-paper" as a basis of discussion where both were to have come

back with what was acceptable and what was unacceptable to them.

Instead, Zakane said the CNDD was the first to break trust by

releasing the paper as "the mediation proposal" that they would

accept. The Forces Vives followed suit condemning the mediation for

a one-sided "proposal" that ignored their fundamental interests.



3. (C) Mutually Exclusive Positions: Zakane stressed that Compaore

is still faced with mutually exclusive positions on the fundamental

issue in the crisis -- the future role of Dadis. "The CNDD refuses

to discuss any option that excludes Dadis and the Force Vives refuse

any option that includes him," said Zakane, who had seen the

"non-paper" as a way to start discussing some concrete modalities

that might generate enough movement to eventually find a solution to

address this most important issue. Since "the mediation has no

mechanism to force Dadis out," Zakane argued they were forced to

consider options that might include him.



4. (C) Next Steps: Zakane told Charge that no third round of talks

is currently planned. In principle, the two sides are supposed to

get back to Compaore with their formal comments on the non-paper but,

Zakane noted, "the CNDD has already accepted it 100% and the Forces

Vives have rejected it out of hand." Their public statements, Zakane

said, "makes the mediator's task much more difficult." The Burkinabe

will continue to engage the two sides to come back with substantive

comments, but Zakane note that, "If they leave things the may they

are, we may have to abandon our efforts and have the international

community again assume its responsibilities." Zakane suggested the

mediation may consider presenting a completely different formula.



5. (C) Is International Pressure Counterproductive? Zakane told

Charge they are finding Dadis' position becoming tougher in response

to international pressure. "The sanctions and, particularly, the

threat of the International Criminal Court make him fearful and more

and more determined to hold onto power as the only way to protect

himself," Zakane opined.



6. (C) Comment: At minimum, the Burkinabe poorly drafted their

"non-paper" in such a way that it could be used by the CNDD as

support for their position. More likely, the paper accurately

reflected the best Compaore thought he could achieve -- even though

that leads to short term and, almost certainly, long term legitimacy

for Dadis. Charge told Zakane that is seems difficult to walk back

the positions stated in the "non-paper" now that it is public but

that, pending official reaction from Washington, what was in the

paper did not seem to offer any real confidence-building measures for

the Forces Vives that could lead to an acceptable resolution of the

Guinean crisis. Our sense is that Zakane and the Burkinabe had

received multiple messages of concern from international partners;

hence, their desire to disassociate themselves from the paper they

presented. Compaore might very well abandon his efforts since he

sees no way of getting Dadis out and is only opening himself up for

criticism by accepting options that keep Dadis in. End Comment



OUAGADOUGO 00001048 002 OF 002







7. (U) Conakry Minimize Considered.



HANKINS