Canada's Prime Minister Ventures to China for First Time

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 OTTAWA 000861

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E.O. 12958: DECL: 2019/12/01
TAGS: PREL ETRD EMIN PHUM CH CA HK KS
SUBJECT: Canada's Prime Minister Ventures to China for First Time
with Modest Goals

REF: OTTAWA 109; OTTAWA 468

CLASSIFIED BY: ScottBellard, POLMinCouns, Ottawa, POL; REASON:
1.4(B),(D)


1. (C/NF) Summary: Prime Minister Stephen Harper will make his
first visit to China as Canadian leader December 3-6. He will most
importantly meet with President Hu Jintao, National People's
Congress chairman Wu Bangguo, and Premier Wen Jiabao. According
to Canadian officials, his main emphasis will be on the commercial
aspects of the bilateral relationship, not so much on China's
political and human rights or global issues. The goals for the
trip are admittedly "very modest, " primarily to help the PM to
"try to begin to establish relationships with important Chinese
officials." No new agreements (or any genuine deliverables)
appear in the works for the trip. Canadian officials believe that
Canada has "resources that China needs for its growth, technology,
education and 'connectiveness' to the North-American market."
With a minority of MPs in the House of Commons, PM Harper's
constant focus is inevitably first and foremost on domestic
politics, not foreign policy. End summary.

First Trip to China as PM


2. (SBU) Prime Minister Stephen Harper of the ruling Conservative
Party will make his first visit to China as Canadian leader
December 3-6, with stops in Beijing, Shanghai, and the Hong Kong
(see schedule in para 11). He has faced considerable criticism
from opposition parties and pundits since taking office in 2006 for
not having undertaken this visit already, especially given the
Conservatives' self-proclaimed foreign policy priority for emerging
Asian markets, notably China and India. (After China, Harper will
go to Seoul on December 6 and 7.) Prime Minister Harper's cabinet
approved a new China policy in late 2008 (ref a),and this trip
caps a steady progression of high level visits, including 20
ministerial delegations, that are the proclaimed centerpiece of the
new engagement plan. In Beijing, PM Harper will meet with
President Hu Jintao, National People's Congress chairman Wu Bangguo
and premier Wen Jiabao. In Shanghai, Harper will meet with
business and political leaders, including the mayor of Shanghai.
In Hong Kong, he will have a bilateral with chief executive Donald
Tsang, as well as several interactions with Canadian and Chinese
business leaders. Senior and mid-level Canadian officials describe
the main emphasis of the trip as on the commercial aspects of the
bilateral relationship, rather than China's political and human
rights issues or other global topics such as Afghanistan or Burma.

Building Relationships with "Respectful, Positive, and Frank"
Dialogue


3. (C/NF) The Prime Minister's Spokesman Dimitri Soudas told Dep
Pol/C that PM Harper's public and private tone throughout the trip
will be "respectful, positive, and frank." Soudas confirmed that
PM Harper will deliver a "major policy speech" in Shanghai, but
declined repeatedly to identify what areas the PM would highlight
during his address to the Canada-China Business Council. He
commented that the Prime Minister was seeking to use his trip to
"build relationships, while balancing advancing Canada's interests
in the areas of economy, trade, and climate change." Department
of Foreign Affairs and International Trade (DFAIT) China Deputy
Director Carole St. Louis separately admitted to Dep Pol/C that the
goals for the trip were "very modest, very basic," as the Prime
Minister "tries to begin to establish relationships with important
Chinese officials." Canadian officials do not expect any
agreements or other deliverables from the trip, despite some
efforts to get China to grant Canada status as an official tourist
destination for Chinese citizens or to give Canadian access to the
Chinese retail banking market.


4. (C/NF) As late as mid-November, Canadian officials had privately
stressed that PM Harper planned no policy speeches during his
visit. Soudas conceded that China's recent climate change
statements and President Obama's public diplomacy in this area
might have contributed to the decision to raise the public profile
of this trip with the PM's Shanghai speech. Soudas underlined that
PM Harper will likely stick to his public line that "all roads to
cooperation ultimately run through Copenhagen." He added the PM
will continue "to make the case that an effective international
agreement on climate change must include all major emitters with
tangible and realistic targets." Soudas said that PM Harper will
tell Chinese officials that with its new status as a "global power
comes significant responsibility." As incoming chair of the G8,
PM Harper will be "discussing a wide range of global issues with
his Chinese counterparts, notably with regard to the G20," Soudas
added.

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Trade and Investment Drive Relations


5. (SBU) The prime minister's visit takes place against the
backdrop of the upcoming 40th anniversary of Sino-Canadian
relations in 2010. Two-way trade is up 31 percent to a historic
high of C$53 billion, according to the most recent Canadian
government statistics. In an off-the-record background briefing
for Canadian reporters on November 30, Canada's Ambassador to China
David Mulroney outlined that trade and investment are a "big part
of what we are focusing and have been focusing on," pointing to a
30 percent increase in bilateral investment, which he said makes
China "Canada's second largest trade investment" partner. He
emphasized Canada's continued engagement in the areas of energy,
environment, and health. He highlighted Canada's Public Health
Agency had deployed personnel to China "working on public health
issue and a range of global issues." Ambassador Mulroney noted
China's role as "a global economic force and a permanent member of
the Security Council" that makes China's positive engagement
"essential" in confronting a range of global issues.


6. (C) According to Canadian officials, a harmonious Sino-Canadian
relationship is "essential" to Canada's future "prosperity,
security, and well-being." They have also emphasized that
"people-to-people" links are currently leading the bilateral
relationship. DFAIT's St. Louis pointed to the 1.2 million
Canadians of Chinese origin, noting that Chinese (both Cantonese
and Mandarin) is now Canada's third most frequently spoken
language. She added that approximately 42,000 Chinese students are
pursuing educational studies in Canada.


7. (U) Testifying before a Canadian Senate committee on November
25, Minister of International Trade Stockwell Day described
Canada's enthusiasm to raise commercial engagement with China: "we
talk about building a road; they talk about building a city. We
talk about building a ship; they talk about building a navy. It is
unbelievable what is going on over there. We want to be part of
that. That is why we aggressively pursue as many arrangements as we
can to make it as easy as we can." Minister Day told the senators
that China is extremely interested in Canada's conventional fossil
fuels. He added that Chinese interlocutors had told him that they
recognized, with the approaching Copenhagen Summit, "that they are
being looked at by the rest of the world in terms of emissions."
As a result, he argued, "they are soaking up alternative forms of
energy." Minister Day noted that, during his April 2009 trip to
China, he had signed a deal on behalf of a Canadian compressed
natural gas company worth more than C$100 million.


8. (C/NF) St. Louis separately underscored that Canada has a
tremendous amount to offer to China, "resources that China needs
for its growth, technology, education and 'connectiveness' to the
North-American market." Press Secretary Soudas contended that
Canada "also has important know-how that China can draw from, such
as in the financial sector, where Canada's solid banking system has
demonstrated its strengths in weathering the global economic
storm."

Human Rights "Woven" in the Background


9. (C/NR) According to Ambassador Mulroney, human rights are "very
much woven into the fabric of the relationship. They come up on
visits. They come up in sort of multilateral sessions with other
countries. We build those into the programming that we do with
China, but we do it in a way that it is designed to really effect
change." He argued that the Canadian way is to raise human rights
in "a frank but respectful way." Claude Carriere, Foreign and
Defence Policy Advisor to the PM, disclosed that Canadian officials
have raised human rights cases "in preparation for this trip." St.
Louis acknowledged that Harper is not likely to "hand across
specific lists of prisoners," however. Separately, Alex Neve,
Secretary General of Amnesty International-Canada, described his
group's goal as being even more modest: "we hope the Prime
Minister raises human rights during his trip," he told poloff on
December 1.

Comment


10. (C/NR) Policy advisors in the Prime Minister's Office had
earlier expressed disappointment that Beijing had been unwilling to
schedule a visit by PM Harper immediately before or after the APEC
Leaders' Summit in Singapore, which they attributed to Beijing's
wariness over how Ottawa might receive the Dalai Lama - to whom
Canada granted honorary Canadian citizenship in 2006 -- during his

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October visit to Canada. The PM's decision not to meet him on
that trip did result in the eventual invitation, rather to the
inconvenience of the PM, who generally dislikes foreign travel and
did not welcome having to make two trips to Asia in less than
month. Even with modest goals, the PM will welcome the opportunity
to showcase to the growing Chinese-Canadian community - an
important potential source of new Conservative voters - his efforts
to cultivate China, as he had done on his November trip to India,
another major source of Canadian immigrants. With a minority of
MPs in the House of Commons, PM Harper's constant focus is
inevitably first and foremost on domestic politics. End comment.

Prime Minister Harper's Schedule in China


11. (U) Thursday, December 3 - Beijing

12:00 Visit to the Great Wall (40 minutes)

15:45 Meeting with President Hu Jintao at the Great Hall of the
People

17:00 Meet with Premier Wen Jiabao

18:30 Official dinner hosted by Wen Jiabao

Friday, December 4 - Beijing and Shanghai

10:00 Tour of the Forbidden City

11:00 Winter Olympics-related promotional event at the Canadian
International School

15:00 Meeting with Chairman of the National People's Congress
Wu Bangguo

16:30 Depart Beijing for Shanghai

18:45 Arrive Shanghai

20:00 Major policy speech to the Canada-China Business Council
and the Canadian Chamber of Commerce in Shanghai, Hyatt on the
Bund.

Saturday, December 5- Shanghai and Hong Kong

10:15 Tour of the Canada Pavilion Expo 2010

12:10 Meet Shanghai Mayor Han Zheng

14:45 Depart Shanghai for Hong Kong

17:00 Arrive in Hong Kong

21:00 Brief remarks to a reception hosted by the Canada Hong
Kong Business Council and the Canadian Chamber of Commerce in Hong
Kong

Sunday, December 6 - Hong Kong

09:30 Meeting with Chief Executive Donald Tsang and Matthew
Chong, Secretary for Labor and Welfare of the Hong Kong special
administrative region

10:50 Wreath-laying ceremony at Sion War Cemetery

17:00 Depart Hong Kong en route to South Korea
JACOBSON