ATLANTIC CANADA: FALL ELECTION WON'T CHANGE MUCH

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 OTTAWA 000709 SIPDIS SENSITIVE E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV CA SUBJECT: ATLANTIC CANADA: FALL ELECTION WON'T CHANGE MUCH REF: OTTAWA 658 ¶1. (SBU) Summary: A fall election "that no one wants" appears increasingly likely as Parliament reconvenes on September 14. Polls suggest such a fourth election in five years would produce another minority government. After falling to a historic low of 77 seats in the 2008 election, the Liberal opposition hopes to take back seats in key provinces and to bolster support in traditional areas of strength, such as Atlantic Canada. However, recent joint Embassy/ConGen Halifax discussions with Atlantic Canada contacts indicate that there are few seats up for grabs in that region. As elsewhere, an election would be a riding-by-riding battle in which the quality of the parties' ground-game will be a key factor. End summary. ELECTION COUNTDOWN -------------- ¶2. (U) On September 1, federal Liberal leader Michael Ignatieff triggered a countdown to a fall election, wrapping up a Liberal planning retreat for the fall session of Parliament with a blunt warning to PM Stephen Harper that "your time is up." Liberal Foreign Affairs critic Bob Rae reinforced the message, insisting that the Liberals would table a non-confidence motion "at the first available opportunity" after the House of Commons resumes on September 14. The Bloc Quebecois and the New Democratic Party have signaled that are unwilling to prop up the government. PM Harper has argued that political instability risks stalling a nascent economic recovery and warned repeatedly publicly and privately of a repeat of last December's opposition "coalition" with "socialists and separatists" should the Liberals win the election. ¶3. (U) The Liberals' first chance to defeat the government will likely come on October 1, when they will have a scheduled "Opposition Day" two days after the Conservatives present an "accountability report" on the 2009-2010 federal budget. If the government falls then, the earliest election date would be November 9 (the Governor General sets the election date on the advice of the PM; campaigns must last a minimum of 35 days). However, the Conservatives could theoretically seize the initiative and accelerate the timetable. Some pundits have opined that the Conservatives might table a ways and means motion (to adjust or raise taxes) soon after the House of Commons returns. The motion -- an automatic confidence matter -- would force the opposition to vote against a popular home renovation tax credit announced in the 2009 budget (the Liberals have promised to restore the credit if they win the election). Under this less than likely scenario, an election could take place as early as October 19 or 26. PUBLIC AGAINST A FALL VOTE -------------- ¶4. (U) In closing the Liberals' September planning session, Ignatieff declared the Liberal Party united, ready for a campaign, and armed with the "secret weapon" of Harper's record. However, a poll released September 10 indicated that 73 pct believe that a fall election was unnecessary. Three separate polls taken from late August to early September all indicate that the Conservatives have opened a four to five point lead -- between 35 and 37 pct to the Liberals' 30 to 33 pct -- after the two parties had remained virtually tied for much of the year. Pollsters also noted that Liberal support seems to have slipped slightly in key battle-ground provinces of Ontario and British Columbia as well as Atlantic Canada, which has been a traditional mainstay of Liberal support. ALL DOWN TO THE GROUND-GAME -------------- ¶5. (SBU) The Liberals currently hold 17, the Conservatives 10, and Q5. (SBU) The Liberals currently hold 17, the Conservatives 10, and the NDP 4 of Atlantic Canada's 32 federal seats. One seat is vacant. Both the Conservatives and the Liberals have strong "brands" in the region, while the NDP surprised some by succeeding in electing members in 2008 in three of the four provinces. Business and political contacts in Atlantic Canada in September indicated to Embassy POL LES and ConGenoffs from Halifax that few seats in the region would appear to be really in play in a possible fall election. The most competitive likely would be South Shore-St. Margaret's, Nova Scotia, now held by Conservative Gerald Keddy, the Parliamentary Secretary for International Trade. Keddy will likely face a strong challenger in former NDP MP Gordon Earle. Contacts predicted that popular Nova Scotia NDP premier Darryl Dexter, elected in June, would have no coattails for the federal NDP. Separately, a senior aide in the premier's office confirmed that Dexter would stay out of any federal campaign. Contacts agreed that Nova Scotia voters clearly distinguish between the centrist home-grown Dexter and the federal NDP, and that the federal party has limited appeal outside metro Halifax. They suggested that the "Dexter effect" might marginally boost Liberal support in Nova Scotia in a fall election before hard budget choices in spring 2010 dim NDP popularity. However, the unpopularity of the Liberal OTTAWA 00000709 002 OF 002 provincial government in New Brunswick might counteract this impact. ¶6. (SBU) Provincial Conservative aides in Nova Scotia confirmed that the provincial party would work actively for the Harper Conservatives in a federal campaign. A federal Liberal contact noted that the federal Conservatives have invested significantly in building a new organization in Atlantic Canada, rather than simply grafting the merged party since 2003 onto former Progressive Conservative stock. The federal Conservatives can also afford to pay staff rather than rely on scarce volunteers. As a result, the Liberal source suggested, the federal Conservative machine was in good shape, while provincial Conservatives claimed that the federal party was "on the cusp" of putting down roots in the region. ¶7. (SBU) In contrast, the same Liberal source suggested that his party's organization in Nova Scotia, and across the region, was less battle-ready. He admitted that, although incumbent Liberal MPs have maintained their own local organizations, Liberal associations in ridings held by other parties faced significant funding, volunteer, outreach, and recruitment challenges. Moreover, he confirmed that old wounds in the party from the schism between former PMs Jean Chretien and Paul Martin remained "long and deep." Although the party had changed leaders and had boosted fundraising, he commented, it had not yet seen a corresponding increase in organizational capacity. ¶8. (SBU) Separately, a senior provincial NDP aide observed that Ignatieff's summer tour through the region suffered logistical snafus that highlighted the federal Liberals' weak coordination on the ground, as well as the inexperience of young staffers in Ignatieff's office (most of them loyalists from his 2006 leadership run, but untested in a national campaign). The same observer argued that Ignatieff had had "a lot of support" in Atlantic Canada when he ran for the party leadership in 2006, but that many supporters "have not been too impressed" by his performance as leader, and Ignatieff had not yet effectively tapped into the regional pool of experienced Liberal workers. Overall, he predicted that most Liberal incumbent MPs were probably "safe," but saw few opportunities to add seats. He noted that Ignatieff was only marginally more popular than other federal leaders in regional polls. Although Atlantic Canadians have not warmed to PM Harper, the contact suggested that voters have accepted Harper "is what he is," and appear satisfied overall with the government's direction. ECONOMY A KEY ISSUE -------------- ¶9. (SBU) Contacts confirmed that thus far regional voters had not been engaged by issues, such as Employment Insurance (E.I.),that the Liberals have highlighted as key concerns. Although the economy remained the major issue, contacts underscored that the regional economy has weathered the recession fairly well. Federal defense contracts already in the pipeline, and new orders such as C$194 million announced on September 2 for construction of coast guard vessels at the Halifax shipyard, have helped to insulate the Nova Scotia economy. Business contacts agreed that the slowdown had had some impact on industrial Cape Breton (N.S.),Northern New Brunswick, and Newfoundland and Labrador, but the damage is local. Observers did not expect E.I. to tip the balance against the Conservatives even in most of these communities, as the majority of seats in these ridings were already held by opposition members. ¶10. (SBU) According to contacts, most federal stimulus funds have not yet begun to flow in Atlantic Canada. An aide to Nova Scotia Qnot yet begun to flow in Atlantic Canada. An aide to Nova Scotia premier Dexter estimated Nova Scotia's share of the federal stimulus package at approximately C$108 million, of which only C$19 million has been announced to date, with the remainder of commitments expected only after the House of Commons resumes on September 14. ¶11. (SBU) Comment: The federal Conservatives have improved their organization in Atlantic Canada, the party's economic message has resonance, and the party is competitive. The federal Liberals may hold on to their 17 seats in the region, but the chance to make gains appears slim. In Atlantic Canada (as elsewhere),the next election will likely be a riding-by-riding battle, in which the quality of the parties' ground-game will be the key factor. End comment. ¶12. (U) ConGen Halifax contributed to and cleared this message. BREESE