NEW LIBERAL LEADER MICHAEL IGNATIEFF

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 OTTAWA 000068 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/23/2019 TAGS: PGOV PINR CA SUBJECT: NEW LIBERAL LEADER MICHAEL IGNATIEFF REF: 08 OTTAWA 1543 Classified By: PolMinCouns Scott Bellard, reason 1.4 (d) ¶1. (C) Summary: An intellectual, historian, and award-winning author and journalist, Michael Ignatieff is the new interim leader of the Liberal Party of Canada (pending formal confirmation at a party conference in May). Harvard-educated and a former U.S. resident, the would-be prime minister is far more familiar with -- and positive about -- the United States than virtually all other Canadian politicians. After only three years in federal politics, Ignatieff remains largely a blank slate to most Canadians, however. End summary. A RUSSIAN HERITAGE -------------- ¶2. (U) Michael Grant Ignatieff was born on May 12, 1947 in Toronto to distinguished Russian-born Canadian diplomat George Ignatieff and Alison Grant, whose own family heritage included Canadian philosopher/nationalist George Grant and Canada's first Canadian-born Governor General, Vincent Massey. Ignatieff's paternal great-grandfather served as Minister of Interior to Tsar Alexander III, while his paternal grandfather was Tsar Nicholas II's Minister of Education. The family fled the Bolshevik Revolution in 1918, eventually settling in Canada in 1928. Ignatieff is fluent in English and French, and has a basic knowledge of Russian. He is married to Hungarian-born former literary publicist Zsuzsanna M. Zsohar, and has two adult children (Theo and Sophie) from a first marriage in the UK. A CANADIAN LIFE LIVED ABROAD -------------- ¶3. (U) Ignatieff has spent most of his adult life outside Canada. After completing a bachelor's degree in history from the University of Toronto in 1969, he attended Harvard University, earning a PhD in history in 1976. He returned to Canada to teach at the University of British Columbia from 1976 to 1978, before moving to the United Kingdom, where he held a senior research fellowship at King's College of Cambridge University until 1984. He then pursued a career as a London-based writer, radio and television broadcaster, and freelance journalist, traveling extensively and teaching at Oxford University, the University of London, the London School of Economics, and the University of California, as well as in France (where the Ignatieff family maintains a home in Provence). ¶4. (U) Ignatieff has authored sixteen books (both fiction and ;non-fiction),including award-winning volumes on international relations, nation-building, peace-keeping, human rights, humanitarian intervention, and ethnic nationalism. He has contributed articles to major newspapers, including "The Globe and Mail" and "The New York Times." In 2002, Canada's national newsmagazine "Maclean's" named him one of the "50 Most Influential Canadians Shaping Society," and in 2003 Canada's "Sexiest Cerebral Man." ¶5. (U) Between 2000 and 2005, Ignatieff served as director of the Carr Center for Human Rights Policy at the John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard. In 2005, after twenty-seven years living outside the country, he returned to Canada as the Chancellor Jackman Visiting Professor in Human Rights Policy at the University of Toronto, amid widespread speculation that the Liberal Party of Canada was wooing him as a star candidate for Member of Parliament and even as a future contender for the party leadership. THE LEARNING CURVE -------------- ¶6. (SBU) In the January 2006 federal election, Ignatieff won the Toronto riding (district) of Etobicoke-Lakeshore for the Liberal Party, and in April declared his candidacy for the Liberal leadership race to succeed outgoing leader Paul QLiberal leadership race to succeed outgoing leader Paul Martin. He quickly became the race's front-runner, garnered the support of many senior party figures, and entered the December 2006 party convention with more delegates (notably from Quebec) than any other candidate. However, due to doubts over his political judgment and his commitment to Canada after such a long absence, as well as polarization between his supporters and those of chief rival and one-time room-mate Bob Rae, he lost the contest to Stephane Dion. Dion subsequently named him deputy leader. ¶7. (SBU) In December 2008, the Liberal Party National Executive accelerated Dion's long-awaited departure (reftel) and Ignatieff became interim leader; he must still await a national convention in late April/early May for formal ratification as party leader. Since the Liberals have the OTTAWA 00000068 002 OF 003 second largest number of seats in the House of Commons (77 versus the ruling Conservatives' 143),Ignatieff also became the Leader of the Official Opposition. He has already moved into the official residence the government maintains for this position (he gamely allowed CBC television's satiric "Rick Mercer Report" to film the move, a minor comedic success). ¶8. (SBU) Ignatieff has identified rebuilding fundraising capacity, growing the party (especially in Quebec and Western Canada) beyond its shrunken Greater Toronto base, and refurbishing the policy playbook as his top priorities. He has begun to build a new team (which some critics have charged is too Toronto-heavy) to staff the Liberal Party national office as well as the office of the Leader of the Official Opposition; not all are yet in place. He has also streamlined his shadow cabinet of MPs from 50 under Dion to 30, and reassigned some portfolios to reward merit and concentrate resources. DEFENDING POSITIONS -------------- ¶9. (C) Ignatieff has worked hard to overcome criticism that he is an opportunistic Johnny-come-lately to Canadian politics, to earn his Liberal credentials, and to demonstrate a genuine commitment to Canada. Before entering politics, pundits had already dubbed him a "liberal hawk" for his prominent support of the 2003 invasion of Iraq, but he later distinguished between his continued support for the war and his lack of trust in the Bush Administration's conduct of it. Apparently in recognition of Canadian domestic opposition, he recanted his support for the war entirely in 2007. He has defended resort by Western democracies to "lesser evils" such as indefinite detention and "coercive interrogation" of suspects to combat terrorism, while adamantly opposing torture. Ignatieff has stated he would not support ballistic missile defense or the weaponization of space. In March 2008, he helped broker an important behind-the-scenes bipartisan consensus in Parliament to extend Canada's combat mission to Afghanistan through 2011. PRO-U.S. -------------- ¶10. (C) Ignatieff is arguably more familiar with the United States than any other current (or even former) Canadian political leader. While resident in the United States, he often used the collective voice "we Americans" in his writings and speeches. Unlike many Canadian politicians (especially in opposition) who like to campaign against the U.S., Ignatieff has insisted publicly that "I don't have an ounce of anti-American feeling." He has defended the United States as "an empire lite, a global hegemony whose grace notes are free markets, human rights and democracy, enforced by the most awesome military power the world has ever known." However, he has not shrunk from some criticism. While reiterating his call in January for the government of Prime Minister Stephen Harper to seek the repatriation of Canadian terror suspect Omar Khadr, Ignatieff told reporters "I love the United States, but Guantanamo is a disgrace." A BLANK SLATE AT HOME -------------- ¶11. (C) For all his recognition abroad, Ignatieff remains a blank slate to most Canadians. In a January poll, 58 percent of respondents said they were "unsure" about what they thought about Ignatieff and could not name anything specific they liked about him. However, 64 percent could not think of anything they disliked, either. Of those with an opinion, seven percent liked that he is "smart," while five percent liked that he is a "fresh face." Others said that he was "inexperienced" (three percent) or "too cold" (three Q"inexperienced" (three percent) or "too cold" (three percent). The Liberals have profited from a moderate bounce by changing leaders (making up all the ground lost in the December political crisis) and are now at least statistically tied with the Conservatives nationally; a January Nanos poll even put the Liberals ahead of the Conservatives 34 percent to 33 percent. ¶12. (C) Parliamentary caucus members and national party officials have commented privately that the new Liberal mood is much more energized and upbeat than under Dion, but predict that Ignatieff will not seek to bring down the government in the near future, preferring instead to give the party more time to rebuild before challenging the Conservatives in an election. Ignatieff has continued to chant the mantra of "a coalition if necessary, but not necessarily a coalition," but many insiders have commented that he would be unlikely to want to risk sharing power with the New Democratic Party. ¶13. (C) The public jury is still out on Ignatieff, but his OTTAWA 00000068 003 OF 003 principal political asset is that he is not Stephane Dion. His primary goal will be to define himself better, quickly -- before the Conservatives do it for him (as they did with devastating effect in portraying Dion as hapless). With the current political focus almost exclusively on the economy (which has not hitherto been Ignatieff's specialty),his response to the January 27 federal budget will effectively be his political "coming out." His other major challenge will be to connect with the middle-class, visible minorities, and low-to-middle income earners who are the Liberals' core constituencies (and whom the Conservatives covet); recent comments by his wife on a national television show that they relax by reading the Russian classics aloud to each other won't help in this quest, however. Visit Canada,s Economy and Environment Forum at http://www.intelink.gov/communities/state/can ada BREESE