SEEKING SENATE REFORM -- AGAIN

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 OTTAWA 000377 SIPDIS SENSITIVE E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV CA SUBJECT: SEEKING SENATE REFORM -- AGAIN REF: A. 08 OTTAWA 1516 - B. 08 OTTAWA 1577 ¶1. (SBU) Summary: Although the economy remains the most likely ballot-box issue in the next federal election, the Conservatives continue to move ahead on non-economic fronts, notably on law and order issues, but also on the "wedge" issue of Senate reform. The government's reform initiatives have no chance of passing, but play well to the Conservative grassroots and help put more ideological light between the Liberals and Conservatives. End summary. WHAT IS OLD IS NEW AGAIN -------------- ¶2. (U) Since January, the federal budget and economic stimulus plans have pushed secondary issues onto the back burner in Parliament. The legislative agenda in the House of Commons has been relatively light and familiar, such as additional law and order bills. Of the 35 bills that the government has introduced since January, 17 were reintroduced from the truncated session that ended in December (ref a); most of those had been, in turn, recycled versions of 33 bills that the Conservatives had introduced in the previous parliament. These died when the government called the October 2008 election. ¶3. (U) Minister of State for Democratic Reform Steven Fletcher Fletcher has pledged "imminently" to re-introduce (for the third time since the Conservatives took office in February 2006) two bills: limiting the tenure of senatorial terms (currently, the appointed Senators may serve until they are 75 years old); and, permitting public consultation (but not direct election) in the appointment of senators. REFORM PROPOSALS A "NON-STARTER" -------------- ¶4. (U) On May 7, Minister Fletcher introduced a bill -- the "Senate Ethics Act" -- to abolish the position of Senate ethics officer and to combine oversight of both Senate and House of Commons ethics codes under a single parliamentary Conflict of Interest and Ethics Commissioner. The bill is the fourth attempt since 2002 (under successive Liberal and Conservative governments) to streamline this position, and would restore a provision in the Conservatives' flagship 2006 Federal Accountability Act. The Commissioner currently oversees the ethics code for the House of Commons as well as rules for federal public office holders. The government had withdrawn the provision in 2006 in the face of stiff resistance in the Senate, in order to win timely passage of the Act. ¶5. (U) The Conservatives' revival of the issue has drawn a "shocked" reaction from some senators. Veteran Liberal Senator Serge Joyal dismissed the ethics bill -- and the two promised bills on senate tenure and selection -- as "non-starters." He accused the Conservatives of "playing to their core supporters in Alberta" and trying to divert attention from their handling of the economy. Opposition crosses party lines. ¶6. (U) The Senate is also expected to oppose the bills to limit Senate tenure to eight years and to allow for public consultation in Senate appointments. Since 2006, Liberal senators have twice blocked similar bills, accusing the Conservatives of trying to reform the Senate through the "back door" by bypassing the need for provincial consent. Under the Constitution, two-thirds of the provinces representing at least fifty percent of the total population must consent to any changes to the powers of, and selection of, senators. The provinces of Ontario and Quebec have already raised constitutional concerns. ¶7. (SBU) The federal Parliament has only reformed Senate tenure once since 1867 when, in 1965, it established the mandatory retirement age (previously, senators served for life). In May, Liberal MP Qage (previously, senators served for life). In May, Liberal MP Albina Guarnieri -- who had chaired a special ad hoc Commons Committee in the last parliament tasked with studying the previous Senate tenure and selection bills - was pessimistic about further progress. She privately pointed to a lack of "political will" by all parties toward reform, and ruled out any progress until either the Liberals or Conservatives obtain a majority in the House of Commons. CONSERVATIVES A MINORITY -- FOR NOW -------------- ¶8. (U) The Conservatives currently constitute a distinct minority in the 105-seat Senate. Party standings are: Liberals, 56 seats; Conservatives, 38; Progressive Conservatives, three; and, Independents, five. There are three vacancies. At least nine more seats will fall vacant during 2009 due to scheduled retirements. If Prime Minister Harper fills all vacancies with supporters, the Conservatives could have a slim majority (50 Conservatives to 49 Liberals) in the Senate in January 2010. OTTAWA 00000377 002 OF 002 ¶9. (U) On December 22, Prime Minister Harper had surprised even fellow Conservatives by deviating from his own and the party's doctrine by appointing 18 senators -- the largest number of senators named at a single time in Canadian history (ref b) -- even absent any Senate reform. (He had, however, previously appointed one senator -- Michael Fortier -- in 2006 to represent Quebec in Cabinet after Fortier failed to win a seat as an MP.) ¶10. (SBU) Comment: The depth of the economic recession has left little political oxygen for other topics, and will without doubt be the key ballot-bow issue in the next federal election, which most expect within the next ten months. Even Conservative insiders in Calgary and Ottawa admit that Senate reform efforts are at best quixotic for now (since the Senate must also vote in favor),but at least are a direct appeal to the Conservative base, which has been stunned by the rapidity with which PM Harper has seemingly abandoned fundamental Conservative principles on Senate appointments, fiscal deficits, the role of government in the auto sector, and other stimulus spending decisions. The efforts nonetheless put greater ideological light between the Conservatives and the Liberals under Michael Ignatieff, who has as of yet publicly identified few clear policy differences with the Conservatives, apart from Employment Insurance eligibility rules (an issue the Liberals share with the New Democratic Party and the Bloc Quebecois). BREESE